Are the Royals starting pitchers good or lucky?

The results have been really good, but can it continue?

Prior to yesterday’s action, the Royals’ starting rotation had combined to pitch the second-most innings in MLB, they had allowed the second-fewest home runs per nine innings which has allowed them to achieve the third-best ERA, fourth-best FIP, and third-most fWAR.

There’s no argument that the Royals’ rotation has been a huge part of their success thus far. But there’s been some debate on social media about whether this is due to talent among those pitchers or just pure, dumb luck. As you might imagine, there is both some luck and some quality pitching happening, but to discuss this I think it makes the most sense to stop talking about the rotation as a whole and talk about the individual pitchers involved.

Seth Lugo

2.03 ERA, 3.85 FIP, .275 BABIP, 88.1% LOB%, 2.00 K/BB

Seth Lugo is an excellent kick-off for this exercise because what the heck is happening here? 2.03 ERA obviously is sparking, but a 3.85 FIP is significantly higher even if it still is plenty good enough in the modern game. A .275 BABIP isn’t insane, but a 88.1% LOB% is WAY high. It’s traditionally considered that 72% is about normal and any number significantly different from that can’t be trusted to continue. If 88.1% isn’t significantly different, I don’t know what is.

The strikeout-to-walk ratio is the bare minimum of what you’d like to see, but it comes from barely walking anyone and not striking out many more. His season high before yesterday’s game was four strikeouts in a game, but he had also never walked more than two. The thing is, the walk rate isn’t significantly lower than last year but the strikeouts are. The question you have to ask yourself is if he’s been unlucky with the strikeouts or if he has lost some swing-and-miss ability. Yesterday’s outing would make you lean toward the former, as he set a new season high for strikeouts by the end of the third inning. However, in case you want to put too much weight on that, remember he also had a home run robbed by Adam Frazier that led to a double play instead of two runs. So weird things happen in individual games.

I tend to think he’s pitching a bit over his head, but he’ll still be serviceable once he comes back down to earth. That LOB% is not sustainable, but I think he’ll strike out more than the few he’s struck out so far, too. If he continues to keep the walks and home runs down, he’ll be fine.

Verdict: Lucky, but not that lucky

Cole Ragans

3.90 ERA, 2.21 FIP, .381 BABIP, 72.8% LOB%, 3.00 K/BB

The ostensible staff ace has the worst ERA on the team, he also has the best FIP. So, ya know.

The 3/1 K/BB ratio will play all day every day, the LOB% is right where you would expect it to be, but the BABIP is ridiculously high. You’d think that would come back down, but he also has given up the most hard contact of any of the Royals’ starting pitchers. But since he’s limiting the home runs and striking out so many, there’s no real reason to think he’s going to regress at all.

Verdict: Maybe a touch unlucky

Michael Wacha

3.81 ERA, 3.35 FIP, .313 BABIP, 75.1% LOB%, 2.78 K/BB

There’s a lot to like here and not much to dislike. He also, interestingly, getting a lot of popups. None of these seems particularly lucky or unlucky. Seriously. I don’t know that I could have imagined a pitcher whose positive results better matched up with the stats you’d first check for luck. He’s limiting hard contact, he’s got a solid K/BB ratio, BABIP and LOB are pretty normal, and the ERA and FIP are pretty similar.

Verdict: What you see is what you’ve got

Alec Marsh

2.70 ERA, 3.25 FIP, .235 BABIP, 75.2% LOB%, 2.43 K/BB

Marsh is on the IL now, but no one else has made a start in his spot, yet, and there’s every reason to believe it’s his once he returns. At first, he looks a lot like Michael Wacha. The K/BB ratio works, the LOB% is reasonable. The ERA and FIP aren’t that far apart.

However, the BABIP is a bit concerning. He’s also allowing quite a few flyballs and quite a few hard-hit balls. He’s limited his walks this year and I argued all late last year and during the off-season that if he could start limiting walks or home runs he could be successful. So far he’s done both, but you have to wonder how long he can limit the home runs when so many balls are in the air and so many are hit hard.

That said, I also think his strikeouts are due to rise as the season continues.

Verdict: Kinda lucky, but could still be OK.

Brady Singer

2.76 ERA, 4.23 FIP, .194 BABIP, 86.1% LOB%, 3.07 K/BB

And this is where things kinda take a turn for the worse. Singer actually has the best K/BB ratio on the team but the BABIP and LOB% are each incredibly out of whack. He’s also given up his share of home runs, which is why the FIP is so high. Eventually you’d have to think some of those home runs are going to be hit with batters on base once he stops stranding so many and more batted balls turn into hits.

It’s not like he’s limiting hard contact, either, at 31.6% hard-hit rate. Also of huge concern is his velocity, which sees his average fastball down below 92 MPH. The one positive sign is that his groundball rate is insanely high. The scary thing is that that means that nearly one in five flyballs turns into a home run. A HR/FB percentage of 17.4% will absolutely sink him if he starts giving up even a few more flyballs.

Verdict: Extremely lucky

I mentioned on Thursday morning’s podcast when Jacob and I broached this topic that I think Brady Singer is going to be in the bullpen by the end of the year. After digging into the numbers some more, I’m a bit more concerned about Seth Lugo. Still, Wacha, Ragans, and Marsh seem like they are probably going to be fine. As it usually goes in sports, the question of whether good athletic performance is the result of good play or luck the answer is at least a little of both. Certainly, all of the Royals’ pitchers have been lucky to one degree or another. If for no other reason than guys like Royce Clayton and Luis Robert Jr. didn’t get many at-bats for their teams against KC and allowed the team to face weaker hitters In their place.

It could very well be that these guys have been lucky. But it’s also possible that they stay lucky all year. That’s how a player ends up with a career season. I’ve long pointed out how lucky the 2015 Royals were to have career-best near-career-best seasons from so many players; maybe the 2024 Royals can have some of that same luck.