Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia: 5 questions (and answers) going into the fight
Canelo Alvarez returns to the ring Saturday on DAZN Pay-Per-View from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, where he’ll defend the undisputed 168-pound championship against Jaime Munguia.
The Mexican superstar had planned to face 160-pound titleholder Jermall Charlo. However, when that fight couldn’t be made, he turned to his young, unbeaten countryman to create what he called “a big party for Mexico.”
The experts and fans have many questions about Alvarez, Munguia and the matchup itself going into the fight. Here are five of them:
How good is Canelo Alvarez at this stage of his career?
Excellent. The same pundits who once elevated the Mexican superstar to the top of pound-for-pound lists began to cite his decline after his unanimous decision loss to 175-pound titleholder Dmitry Bivol in 2022 and flat performances against rival Gennadiy Golovkin and John Ryder in his next two fights. It was reasonable to wonder whether more than 60 professional fights had worn him down. However, after his surgically repaired left wrist had healed, he looked more like the Alvarez of old in his unanimous decision victory over 154-pound champion Jermell Charlo last September. Yes, Charlo moved up two weight classes for the fight, which limits the weight of the victory. At the same time, Alvarez (60-2-2, 39 KOs) isn’t a big 168-pounder and Charlo was a pound-for-pounder in his prime at the time they met. It’s safe to say that Alvarez’s victory was a step in the right direction. And, assuming he remains healthy, there’s no reason to believe he won’t be sharp against Munguia even if he isn’t quite the same fighter he once was. Alvarez, one of the best fighters of his generation, remains dangerous.
How good is Munguia?
Plenty good. The jury remained out on Munguia (43-0, 34 KOs) as recently as early last year. The 27-year-old resident of Tijuana had a gaudy record and had won a 154-pound title – which he won by stopping Sadam Ali in 2018 – but he hadn’t faced the kind of tests required to determine his ability with clarity. That arguably changed in his last two fights, a hard-fought unanimous decision over clever, experienced Sergey Derevyanchenko last June and a ninth-round knockout of Ryder seven months later. He still hadn’t faced a pound-for-pounder but he made strong statements in those fights. He remains a fiery, powerful fighter and has improved as boxer, although he can still be hit. And he seems to be thriving under new trainer Freddie Roach, who made his debut in Munguia’s corner in the Ryder fight. Indeed, Munguia seems to be peaking both physically and mentally. Is he good enough to beat one of the best fighters of the generation? Probably not. The oddsmakers have made Alvarez about a 5-1 favorite. He’s a live underdog, however. Remember: We’ve almost certainly seen the best of Alvarez while Munguia is on the rise. Stay tuned.
Could this be an historic fight?
Absolutely. If Alvarez collects his 61st victory, as expected, it won’t make significant waves. Observers will say he was the beneficiary of another poor matchup because of Munguia’s perceived limitations. If Munguia wins? That would turn the boxing world upside down, especially if the underdog claims a one-sided decision or does the unthinkable by stopping the future Hall of Famer. Alvarez has been on pound-for-pound lists for more than a decade. A loss would be conclusive evidence that he has begun to fade. He has ruled Mexican boxing for the same amount of time. The fight on Saturday could be seen as a passing of the torch, perhaps akin to the transition from Julio Cesar Chavez to the great trio of Marco Antonio Barrera, Juan Manuel Marquez and Erik Morales. And, of course, Alvarez could no longer be considered the face of boxing. That distinction would shift to a young, fresh fighter, perhaps Gervonta Davis or Shakur Stevenson or even Ryan Garcia. Yes, if Munguia finds a way to win on Saturday, the sport won’t be quite the same as it has been over the past decade.
What follows this fight?
Good question. If Alvarez emerges victorious, passionate calls for him to finally face David Benavidez will be heard immediately. However, for whatever reason, he doesn’t seem to want what is arguably the biggest possible fight for him. Plus, Benavidez has moved up to 175 pounds, at which he’ll fight Oleksandr Gvozdyk on June 15. Alvarez might have to face him at 175 or a catch weight if he surprises us and pursues that fight at this point. If not Benavidez? Perhaps Jemall Charlo will reemerge as a viable candidate to face Alvarez. David Morrell and Edgar Berlanga are also potential foes, although it would be difficult to get excited about the latter. And Alvarez could pursue the winner of Bivol-Artur Beterbiev on June 1. He’ll always have options as long as he keeps winning. If Munguia has his hand raised? A rematch would be likely, assuming it’s not a blowout. And Alvarez would deserve a second chance. Or, if that doesn’t happen, Munguia would have the leverage that comes with being an undisputed champion. He could fight Benavidez or Charlo or anyone else mentioned above, whomever he and his team would deem the best opponent. That comes with taking down an established star.
Who is going to win?
Alvarez. I believe that an Alvarez at 85-90% will be too much for Munguia, who, again, is a good boxer but not one whose skill set or experience rivals that of Alvarez. Maybe Munguia will have continued to improve enough in another training camp with Roach that he’ll be able to outwork the one-punch-at-time champion, somehow avoid his biggest shots and sneak away with a close decision. Maybe he’ll hurt Alvarez, although not even a big puncher like Triple-G could do that in three fights. Or maybe Alvarez is truly in decline and Munguia is catching him at the right time, which could open the door to an upset. Those are all possibilities. However, we’re talking probabilities here. Alvarez will most likely do what he has done against so many other capable opponents, start slowly, gradually close the distance on Munguia, land more and more hard punches as the fight progresses, wear Munguia down and either win a one-sided decision over score a late knockout. That would probably be my prediction against any opponent except Benavidez, Bivol or Beterbiev. I think Alvarez is going to stop Munguia in the late rounds.