Federalism Is Conservatives’ Secret Weapon

States matter again because Democrats’ radicalism has invigorated federalism.

States have long been incubators of government innovation, and COVID was a watershed when state responses — especially lockdowns and school closures — accentuated differing governing approaches: Democrats responded to their predilection; Republicans responded to the pandemic. More recently, Democrats’ radicalism, combined with the Biden administration’s unprecedented open-border policy, has staged a stark comparison between blue and red states.

Blue Policies are Failing Blue States

Beginning with the federal government’s growth in the 1960s, states seemed a governmental backwater. Government then emanated from the top down. Yes, states had their moments: Proposition 13 in California signaled the coming Reagan revolution. But power — money, regulations, and judicial decisions — came from Washington. In 1964, federal government spending amounted to 17.9 percent of GDP; all state and local spending amounted to 9.3 percent. In 2023, the federal government spent 22.7 percent of GDP; state and local spending was 10.7 percent.

The Democrat Party shifted leftward simultaneously. According to Gallup, in 1994, only 25 percent of Democrats identified as liberal. By 2010, it was 40 percent; by 2017, half of Democrats were. In 2023, it was 54 percent. With near monopoly control of some states and most big cities, Democrats’ increasing leftward lurch allowed them to turn their governments into leftist laboratories. Sanctuary cities, a movement now decades-old, is but one example of many.

Then, COVID gave states unprecedented opportunities for unbridled government action. Lockdowns and school closures were the most focal. In sum, these began first, lasted longest, and were most stringent where governments were bluest. As an example, California locked down on March 19, 2020, and did not rescind its lockdown until over a year later, on June 15. Similarly, Oregon locked down on March 23, 2020, and did not fully reopen until June 30, 2021.

The same divergence occurred with school closures. Of the 10 states most successful at staying open during the pandemic (Wisconsin, Arkansas, Florida, South Dakota, Utah, Nebraska, Montana, Texas, North Dakota, and Louisiana), all are red states; of the 10 least successful states (California, Oregon, Maryland, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Virginia, Illinois, Nevada, and New Jersey), all were blue.

While the pandemic accentuated the parties’ differing governing approaches, they did not end there. The “sanctuary” movement predated the pandemic and still continues. Of the states embracing it — California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Vermont — all are blue. The same blue predominance applies at the city and county levels. So too with the Defund the Police movement: defunding cities are overwhelmingly blue.

Taxes have long been a distinguishing factor between Democrats and Republicans. Of the 12 states (Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming, Arizona, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Ohio) with the lowest top marginal income tax rates, nine are red — and the three blue ones were barely so in the 2020 presidential election. Of the 12 states (California, New York, Hawaii, New Jersey, Oregon, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Vermont, Wisconsin, Maine, Washington, and Connecticut) with the highest top marginal income tax rates, all are blue.

Another recent distinguisher has been environmental policy. A recent New York Times’ headline read: “Blue States Roll Out Aggressive Climate Strategies. Red States Keep to the Sidelines.” Such “aggressive climate strategies” have, at least in New York, included restrictions on natural gas.

To the list could also be added an emphasis on DEI and CRT and more. Naturally, such governing divergences have consequences.

Federalism Will Save Red States

The cities with the highest crime cost per capita are overwhelmingly governed by Democrats. Of the top 30 cities for murder, 27 of them are blue-run — and according to the Heritage Foundation, 14 “have Soros bought-and-paid-for rogue prosecutors.”

Of the top 12 states with the highest gain of tax filers moving in, 11 of them are red — only Nevada made the list (its 0 percent top marginal rate and proximity to California the likely reasons). Of the top 12 states (including D.C.) for tax filer exodus, 10 are blue. Firm migration shows the same: of the top 10 gainers, six are red. Three of the four blue states — Nevada, New Jersey, and Arizona — likely made the list because of their proximity to New York. and California, which topped the loss list: of the top 10 losers, nine were blue states.

Unsatisfied with standing pat in their commonsense governing, red states are increasingly proactively embracing their advantage. School choice is the newest battleground. Of the 11 states with laws allowing parents a choice to take state money and educate their children wherever they deem best, 10 are red states.

America is receiving a dual-edge lesson in federalism. This is a good thing. Our founders intended it, as the Constitution’s 10th Amendment proves. We can pity the residents of the benighted blue states; however, these states’ misgoverning serves a purpose. To paraphrase Thomas Edison, they have not failed but have found a 1000 ways to not make a light bulb.

Blue states are proving what President Coolidge said: “It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.” Better still is acting as red states increasingly are and using federalism positively. They are laboratories showing what limited government and pro-growth policies can accomplish. By so doing, Republicans exploit another state advantage: despite winning only 47 percent of 2020’s popular vote, Trump carried 25 states; a shift of a few tens of thousands of votes, would have increased it to 31.

The federal government continues its unsustainable expansion, while blue states run themselves into the ground. Red state examples are needed now more than ever. Reform is coming, regardless of Washington and blue state resistance. Red states show how. And America can thank federalism for it.

J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023.

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