Surprise, Surprise: Mariners vs. Royals Series Preview

The Royals are in town for a three-game series this week.

In the eternal baseball season battle of “It’s so over / We’re so back,” we find ourselves squarely teetering at the edge of back-ness — and just as unsteadily in first place in the division by a scant margin. Fueled by a return to their Sound-side confines, the Mariners took two out of three against the ever-plucky A’s rather handily, with some hefty offensive performances and Bryan Woo’s 2024 big league debut. Julio also finally hit his second home run — and his first at home this season — and I swear you could feel the Mother’s Day crowd holding their breath just before the ball sailed over the fence in dead center field.

Prior to the start of the season, I, like any good coastal elite, assumed the AL Central would be weird (derogatory). Technically I wasn’t wrong, it’s just been weird (complimentary?). Though technically third in their division, the Royals are realistically locked in a three-way struggle for first place, with a difference in winning percentage of just .015 separating them from the Guardians. As the Twins ruthlessly reminded us last week, Midwest nice only extends so far. Kansas City was one of the surprise spenders of the offseason, shelling out for some pitching support (Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Chris Stratton) and also some former Mariners. They also made the savvy choice of signing noted good luck charm Will Smith (pitcher). A month and a half into the season, and it appears these Royals might be good? And if not universally good, their defense certainly is and their pitching has at least been fairly lucky along the way.

Bobby Witt Jr.’s franchise-record $288.8 million/11 year contract extension was far and away the Royals’ most impactful move this offseason, and since then the shortstop has played like he never heard of Curt Flood or Catfish Hunter, playing feverishly at a level equaled only by Mookie Betts this year. Vinnie Pasquantino has looked fun and Salvador Pérez, who is disconcertingly not nearly as much older than me as I thought he was, has been pretty darn good himself. The rest of the Royals offense is scattershot - far more of a threat on the basepaths than at the plate. For this series, specifically, the best thing the Mariners’ pitchers can do is A) Remember Lesson #1 and B) Simply avoid having baserunners when Pérez is up. The longtime Royals backstop has an obscene .298/.340/.509 line in 62 career games against the Mariners, including 12 home runs and an .849 OPS. I intend to watch all his at-bats with my eyes mostly covered.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

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Brady Singer enjoyed a big breakout back in 2022 but followed that up with a pretty disappointing season last year. He’s succeeded in the past in spite of a two-pitch repertoire where just one of his pitches is truly above average. He’s struggled to find a third pitch to integrate into his pitch mix, at times experimenting with a changeup and a four-seam fastball. He’s finding success this year thanks to a slider that’s improved slightly over its already above average results. He’s also locating his sinker down in the zone more often, leading to a ton of contact on the ground.

After a solid season in San Diego, Michael Wacha followed fellow rotation-mate Seth Lugo to Kansas City this offseason to provide some veteran innings for this young rotation. Lugo has been brilliant but Wacha has struggled with some run prevention issues despite some solid peripherals. Last year, Wacha started using his excellent changeup as his primary pitch with his trio of fastballs and a show-me curveball playing second fiddle. Emphasizing his best pitch worked out well and he’s continued to fade his pedestrian four-seamer this year.

One of the many former first round picks littering the Royals pitching staff, Alec Marsh made his major league debut last year. He bounced between the bullpen and the starting rotation throughout the year thanks to a 11.4% walk rate and an 18.4% home run rate, both of which pushed his ERA and FIP close to six. Command was never his strongest skill in the minors, but he’s managed to figure something out this year. His walk rate has dropped to 6.9% thanks to a seven point increase in his zone rate. His strikeout rate has dipped a bit as he’s filled the strike zone and batters are making more contact off his pitches, but so far he’s managed to avoid allowing too many runs.

The Big Picture:

The Mariners are in first. It feels a liiiiittle too close to crow gleefully about it, but who am I to not at least take the opportunity to say that sentence again. The Mariners are in first place in their division. They got there thanks to the Rockies who swept the Rangers in three games over the weekend. Texas scored just six runs in that series in Coors Field and their injury issues have continued to mount. The Guardians will travel to Arlington this week to face the reeling Rangers. The Astros managed to win their weekend series in Detroit and will return home to host the A’s for four games this week.