Orioles minor league report: Here’s who has improved (and hurt) their stock in 2024

TORONTO — The 2024 season is just over two months old for most minor league teams, giving organizations large enough sample sizes to start evaluating their prospects’ body of work. No franchise has more talent to sift through than the Orioles, whose consensus top-ranked farm system produced yet another major leaguer this week with Connor Norby making his MLB debut Monday.

There’s still plenty of talent left behind, though, and some players are off to better starts than others. Here’s who has improved and hurt their prospect stock the most so far this season.

Stock up

Triple-A Norfolk outfielder Heston Kjerstad: No Orioles prospect has swung a hotter bat this season than Kjerstad, whose 1.103 OPS is the highest among all qualified Triple-A players. The 2020 No. 2 overall pick has hit 14 home runs, which remains tied for the most by any minor leaguer Double-A or higher despite his three-week stint with the Orioles between April and May.

Kjerstad was already a top-50 prospect on all major rankings heading into the season, but his performance over the first two months has left little doubt that he has mastered Triple-A competition. The only step left for Kjerstad is an everyday opportunity with the Orioles for him to get comfortable in the majors, but so far he’s only seen sporadic playing time when in Baltimore.

Triple-A Norfolk left-hander Cade Povich: The most impressive pitcher in the Orioles farm system in 2024, Povich has emerged as a viable option to start in the major leagues as soon as this year with his breakout season. He’s struck out 75 batters in 11 starts while posting a 3.18 ERA, pitching into the sixth inning six times as the Tides’ coaching staff has allowed him to build up to higher pitch counts.

Walks were Povich’s biggest issue last season, but he’s cut his free passes down from 5.8 walks per nine innings to 3.3 in 2024. If he can harness his control — he averages 92.5 mph with his fastball — Povich has four other pitches in his repertoire that give hope that he can stick as a starter in the majors.

Double-A Bowie outfielder Dylan Beavers: He isn’t part of the Orioles’ latest wave of top prospects to reach the majors, but Beavers could be at the front of the line for the next one. The 2022 first-round pick — he was the 33rd selection after the Orioles took Jackson Holliday first overall — has settled in at Double-A and unlocked a new level of power that could have him on the cusp of a promotion to Norfolk.

Beavers, 22, has hit seven home runs in 43 games, sitting four homers away from his total in 119 games last season. He’s also chipped in 10 stolen bases while playing all three outfield positions. The Tides’ outfield still has Kjerstad, but Kyle Stowers’ and Norby’s promotions have left available playing time behind that Beavers could soon fill if he continues to mash as he has.

Stock down

High-A Aberdeen third baseman Mac Horvath: Horvath’s first taste of the pros couldn’t have gone better last season. The Orioles drafted the North Carolina product in the second round of the 2023 draft and promoted him twice before the summer was over as he finished the year in High-A. He returned to Aberdeen to begin 2024 and has struggled to find the same groove, posting a .641 OPS over his first 39 games.

The good news for Horvath is that his strikeout rate has improved from last, dropping to 20.1%. He’s played well at third base, second base and right field, showcasing the ability to fit into whatever role the Orioles might need him. But his biggest question mark entering the draft was his hitting, and he’s lost any momentum he picked up in that department last season.

Low-A Delmarva outfielder Braylin Tavera: Tavera signed with the Orioles for $1.7 million in 2022, setting the club’s record at the time for the highest bonus ever given to an amateur international free agent. He backed that status up with strong short-season numbers in the Dominican Summer League and rookie ball as a 17- and 18-year-old but hasn’t seen that success translate to Low-A this year.

Before landing on the injured list with a shoulder sprain May 15, Tavera was hitting .174 with zero home runs in 26 games. He did steal 12 bases and has a double-digit walk rate, leaving plenty of room for optimism for a player with plenty of time to develop ahead of him. However, it’s been far from an ideal start for Tavera, who has had to spend the past two weeks rehabbing an injury rather than working to improve.

Triple-A Norfolk right-hander Justin Armbruester: Armbruester got a legitimate chance to prove himself at Triple-A this season, breaking camp as a member of the Norfolk rotation. He hasn’t been able to cash in on the opportunity, posting a 9.70 ERA in 11 games (10 starts) with a WHIP of 1.85. The right-hander’s last outing Saturday resulted in a season-high seven earned runs against him on eight hits with two walks. He also hit two batters.

It’s a disappointing turn for Armbruester, who has managed to post strong strikeout numbers throughout his minor league career but still gives up a lot of contact. The 25-year-old is still in the Tides’ rotation for now, but he could be running out of time before the organization considers a possible move to the bullpen.

Each week, The Baltimore Sun will break down five of the top performers in the Orioles’ prospect ranks and hand out some superlatives for those who didn’t make that cut. Here’s who stood out:

1. Triple-A Norfolk infielder Jackson Holliday

Holliday is coming off his best week at the plate since returning to the minor leagues, slashing .412/.545/.765 with one home run and three doubles. The Orioles’ No. 1 prospect has an .867 OPS in 32 games since his demotion; he’s walked (32) nearly as many times as he’s struck out (36), quelling any fears that his failed first stint in the majors would carry over to Triple-A.

2. Double-A Bowie catcher Samuel Basallo

Basallo appears to have put his offseason elbow injury firmly behind him, hitting .381 with a home run and two stolen bases this week. He’s also flashed his defensive prowess behind the plate, showing off his arm catching multiple would-be base stealers. While still seeing plenty of time at first base and designated hitter, Basallo looks every bit the part of a future franchise catcher.

3. High-A Aberdeen outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr.

Bradfield Jr. is going to keep on running until someone stops him. The Orioles’ 2023 first-round pick swiped three more bases this week to match his total (25) from last season. He’s pushed his on-base percentage up to .347, showing the Orioles he still has the potential to be more than just a speed threat if he does reach the big leagues.

4. Triple-A Norfolk right-hander Chayce McDermott

It wasn’t a banner week for Orioles pitching prospects, but McDermott made two starts and tallied 15 strikeouts with seven walks in nine innings of work. McDermott has struck out a gaudy 14.2 batters per nine innings this season, showing elite strikeout potential at the highest level of the minors. Like Povich, he’s a candidate to reach the majors this summer either as a starter or reliever.

5. Double-A Bowie right-hander Seth Johnson

Johnson has quietly gotten off to a nice start to his first season since undergoing Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery, putting up a 3.41 ERA in 31 2/3 innings. He’s only averaged about three-and-a-half innings per start as the Orioles manage his innings, but Johnson has made the most of those starts — he allowed one run in four innings during his last outing on Wednesday — and showed why the Orioles acquired him along with McDermott as part of the Trey Mancini deal.

The top prospect not featured so far

Triple-A Norfolk infielder Coby Mayo’s rehabilitation from his rib injury is being viewed in a timeframe of weeks not months, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said in a news conference Friday. Mayo would have been a candidate to get the call-up in the wake of Jorge Mateo’s injury this weekend over Norby, but the poorly timed injury has him on the shelf instead. Luckily for Mayo, the rib fracture doesn’t look like it will force him to miss too much time.

International acquisition of the week

Originally acquired in the Jorge López trade, High-A Aberdeen right-hander Juan Nuñez was placed on the minor league IL on Tuesday after a superb start to the season. Nuñez, who last pitched May 14, has a 2.45 ERA in 29 1/3 innings with 38 strikeouts and 10 walks. The Orioles have already seen a surplus of a return in the López deal after Yennier Cano’s career turnaround and Povich has the chance to add to that total, but Nuñez could eventually join them given his injury doesn’t prove to be serious.

Time to give a shoutout to …

Perhaps the best Orioles pitching prospect performance of the week belonged to Double-A Bowie right-hander Kyle Brnovich, who threw six hitless innings with six strikeouts and a walk Sunday. Brnovich isn’t listed on any of the Orioles’ organizational top 30 lists, but he owns a 3.27 ERA in 44 innings after splitting time between the rotation and bullpen.

Orioles at Blue Jays

Tuesday, 7:07 p.m.

TV: MASN2

Radio: 97.9 FM, 101.5 FM, 1090 AM