Guardians series preview: Taking on the division leaders
To be the best, you have to beat the best!
It is June, and our Kansas City Royals are playing a series against the first place team in their division with something on the line. The Royals currently sit just four games back of the Cleveland Guardians, who have gotten off to an amazing start with the third-best record in baseball. They’ve done it against the second-easiest schedule while the Royals have played the third-easiest schedule, so this series could be a good test of how these two teams stand.
Kansas City Royals (36-25) vs. Cleveland Guardians (39-20) at Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Royals: 4.87 runs scored/game (6th in MLB), 3.66 runs allowed/game (4th)
Guardians: 5.05 runs scored/game (4th in MLB), 3.77 runs allowed/game (6th)
Cleveland’s last 12 games have been against teams with losing records, and they went 9-3 in that time. They have the best home record in baseball at 20-7, having lost only one series at Progressive Field all year.
Cleveland hitters have eighth-best on-base percentage and the fifth-lowest strikeout rate despite having the youngest lineup in baseball. David Fry, a 28-year-old utility player, has hit like Babe Ruth so far this year with a wRC+ of 217, tops by any hitter in baseball with at least 100 plate appearances. José Ramírez and Josh Naylor are both among the top seven home run hitters in baseball. Ramírez and Tyler Freeman are among the biggest pull hitters in baseball.
The Naylor brothers are both mired in slumps - Josh is hitting just .173 since May 1, while Bo is hitting just .156 in that time. Steven Kwan missed three weeks with a hamstring injury, but had a three-hit game in his first game back on Friday. The Guardians are tied with the Royals for sixth in baseball with 57 steals, but with a below-average success rate of 74 percent. Cleveland and Kansas City are tied for the highest percentage of baserunners who eventually score, at 37 percent. Cleveland is fifth in Defensive Runs Saved, just ahead of the Royals.
The Royals haven’t officially announced a starter for Thursday afternoon, but they did call up Daniel Lynch IV to replace Michael Wacha in the rotation.
Triston McKenzie had a season-high nine strikeouts his last time out in just five innings, but he gave up four runs in Colorado. He has been plagued by walks, posting the highest walk rate in baseball. He also has one of the highest flyball rates, with over half of batted balls going up in the air, and he has allowed six home runs in his last three starts. His fastball velocity has been down this year, averaging just 90 mph, but his curve and slider have been unhittable, each with 37 percent whiff rates. he has a 2.70 ERA in 56 2/3 innings against Kansas City in his career, with Royals hitters batting just .176 against him.
Logan Allen was rocked in his last start, giving up seven runs and failing to get out of the second inning. He has never beaten the Royals in three starts, with a 5.27 ERA. The 25-year-old has been terrible at home with a 7.33 ERA in five starts, but he has a 2-0 record at Progressive Field. Opponents are hitting .373 against his 91 mph fastball, but he has better success with his change, cutter, and sweeper.
Tanner Bibee finished second in Rookie of the Year voting last year, winning 10 games with a 2.98 ERA in 25 starts. He has one of the best sliders in baseball with opponents hitting just .118 against it. Opponents are hitting .340 off his four-seamer, and he also throws a changeup and a curve. Righties are hitting just .179/.208/.326 against him. He has given up just five runs in 24 1⁄3 innings over his last four starts.
Cleveland has had the best bullpen in baseball so far this year with a 2.42 ERA and 2.67 FIP. They have the second-highest strikeout rate and the lowest walk rate. Emmanuel Clase has the lowest ERA by anyone with at least 20 innings pitched. Clase still has one of the biggest fastballs in baseball with a 98 mph heater, but he is no longer a big-time strikeout pitcher. He leads the league with 18 saves by posting one of the best walk rates in baseball and inducing a 56 percent groundball rate.
There are 21 relievers with at least 20 innings pitched and no home runs allowed, three of which pitch for Cleveland - Clase, Tim Herrin, and Cade Smith. Opponents are hitting just .125 against Herrin’s curve, which he throws 43 percent of the time. Former Royals reliever Scott Barlow got off to a great start with Cleveland, but has given up six runs in his last six innings.
The Guardians are similar to the 2014-15 Royals in that they have terrific defense, an opportunistic offense, and a shutdown bullpen. They’re off to a hot start, but the Royals have a chance to cool them down and show this division will be a dogfight this summer.