Path to 90: Setting the Bar for a Successful June

Can the Royals continue on the “narrow path”?

Before the season, I wrote a piece called “The Narrow Path to 90 Wins.” It had two parts, really. One was laying out what would need to happen on the team for the Royals to approach 90 wins, and the other was what shape the season might take if they did. Like pretty much everyone, I didn’t think it very likely the Royals would contend, but here we are in the first week of June, and the Royals have been one of the best handful of teams in baseball pretty much all season.

How has their season matched up to my “narrow path”? Well, the first and most important thing I mentioned would be that a successful Royals team would have one of the best rotations in baseball, and it has even exceeded the most optimistic expectations so far. No one would have thought Seth Lugo would be a prime candidate to start the All-Star Game or that Alec Marsh would be a mid-rotation-level arm as the fifth starter. We hoped that Brady Singer would return to form and that Cole Ragans would continue his second half ways, and they have both been very good.

As for position players, all I asked of Salvy was to “stop the negative progression and put up numbers closer to 2022 than 2023.” He’s far exceeded that, putting up the best all-around offensive numbers of his career. Bobby Witt’s breakout was also vital to any hopes of contending, and he has put himself squarely in the MVP conversation. And they have needed it, because the outfield has been a nightmare. In addition, Michael Massey has been injured (although he’s looked good when healthy), and Vinnie Pasquantino has been no better than mediocre.

I wrote that a successful bullpen would see the veteran acquisitions step back into support roles, while younger arms took the lead as dominant late-inning options. Although James McArthur has claimed the closer role, it was because of an early-season meltdown by Will Smith, not so much because he has stepped up and seized it. Overall, the bullpen has neither been a strength nor a mortal weakness.

Looking ahead to June

As for the shape that a contending season might take, the Royals have not followed the pathway very closely. Out of 19 series, they have only hit the “target record” four times. They have exceeded the target eight times (once by two games), and fallen short of the target seven times. One series into June, they are currently two games ahead of the target record, which means if they hit their target for the rest of the season, they will finish with 92 wins. They current are winning at a 96-win pace.

But just two series ago, they were at a 102-win pace and four games ahead of the target record. They narrowly avoided their first sweep Sunday. And the really difficult section of their schedule has just started. A showdown in Cleveland with the division-leading Guardians is next, the first of four straight series against division leaders (Guardians, Mariners, Yankees, and Dodgers).

The June schedule looked to be the most difficult from the beginning. The target record for June was only 15-14. To finish the month on or better than the target record for 90 wins, they need to find eleven more victories in this schedule:

Schedule (target record):

@ Cleveland Guardians (1-2)
3 vs. Seattle Mariners (2-1)
4 vs. New York Yankees (2-2)
3 @ Los Angeles Dodgers (1-2)
3 @ Oakland Athletics (2-1)
3 @ Texas Rangers (1-2)
3 vs. Miami Marlins (2-1)
4 vs. Cleveland Guardians (2-2)

Target: 13-13; Minimum to stay on track: 11-15.

It would be nice if the Royals went into Cleveland and took the series this week, but beating your direct competition, especially at this stage of the season, is a little overrated. If the Royals can avoid the sweep, that’s an acceptable outcome.

The Royals have failed to hit their target on many difficult series this season but have made up for it with sweeps against bad teams and winning series against struggling would-be contenders, so maybe they can hit or even exceed the 13-win target by beating up on the A’s and Marlins, or winning the Rangers series, even if the series against the first-place teams go poorly.

The Guardians have played their first 59 games at a 107-win pace, but Fangraphs only projects them for a .485 winning percentage in their remaining schedule. Baseball Reference projects them to be 52-51 the rest of the way. Either way, even with the Twins projected to have the best record in the division from this point forward, 90 wins still projects to win the division or come very close.

For this reason, neither the team nor the fans should panic when the winning percentage begins to fall from the lofty heights we’ve seen this season. There are ups and downs to every season. A losing June seems a strong possibility, but avoiding sweeps and winning series against the weaker teams on the schedule can keep them on track.

There are definite weaknesses to address. It’s not hard to see the weaknesses compounding with the difficult schedule and resulting in a June win total in the single digits (which actually would put them in the direction of undoing their hot start). Part of a successful June would also be positive answers to questions about how the team will weather an injury in their rotation, poor outfield production, and shakiness in the bullpen.

What is your standard for a successful month?