Gallego up by 3 points over Lake in Arizona Senate survey

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is leading Republican candidate Kari Lake by 3 points in a new survey of one of this year's most closely watched Senate races.

An AARP poll released Thursday found Gallego leading Lake 48 percent to 45 percent, with 6 percent undecided. Because the polling falls within the margin of error of 4 percentage points, the two are statistically tied. 

Broken down by party, 86 percent of Republican respondents and 6 percent of Democratic respondents backed Lake, while 93 percent of Democrats and 10 percent of Republicans backed Gallego. Gallego also performed better with independents than Lake at 47 percent to 39 percent.  

Lake performed slightly better than Gallego with voters aged 50 years and older (48 percent to 47 percent); she also performed better with the men surveyed (51 percent to 43 percent), while Gallego performed better with the women surveyed (53 percent to 40 percent). 

“There is a 27-point gender gap among voters 50+, with women supporting Gallego by 12-points and men voting Lake by 15,” AARP noted in its write-up of the survey results. 

AARP also noted that Lake has a high unfavorable rating of 49 percent, compared to 35 percent who have a favorable view of her. Meanwhile, Gallego has a 24 percent unfavorable rating and a 34 percent favorable rating. 

The two candidates are vying for retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-Ariz.) seat after she announced she would not seek reelection. Most public polling has shown Gallego leading Lake in the race so far. 

Lake is hoping to unite her party around her candidacy despite some skepticism from establishment Republicans who worry that her election denialism and hard-right views make her a liability in the general election.

Arizona is among a handful of battleground states that will determine the presidency and majority control of the Senate. Arizona elections have historically been tight races.  

This cycle could be particularly interesting as polls show former President Trump leading President Biden in battleground states while Senate Democratic candidates appear to be outperforming their Republican rivals.  

The AARP poll was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research May 28 to June 4 with 1,358 likely voters surveyed, including a statewide sample of 600 likely voters. The margin of error for the 600 likely voters is 4 percentage points.