06/16/2024: Nice for One More Day, Then Hot & Humid

For just one more day, humidity levels remain on the lower side with seasonable temperatures and a good deal of sunshine. A very robust upper level ridge of high pressure builds into midweek. The combination of increasing temperatures & humidity will push heat index values into the triple digits during some afternoons.

The Latest Storm Tracker Forecast from Meteorologist Kevin Appleby:

For just one more day, humidity levels remain on the lower side with seasonable temperatures and a good deal of sunshine. A very robust upper level ridge of high pressure builds into midweek. The combination of increasing temperatures & humidity will push heat index values into the triple digits during some afternoons.

Father's Day weather is great follow-up to what we had yesterday - bright skies, low humidity, seasonable temperatures. You will notice some upper level cirrus clouds which were absent from our skies yesterday to go along with much less wind. Seasonable temperatures in the 70s to near 80 are expected again.

The transition to much warmer conditions begins overnight. Winds will shift out of the south. That, along with more clouds than last night, will keep temperatures milder, with a good amount of towns and cities failing to drop below 60.

I'm calling Monday the introduction to the heat wave. Humidity will steadily climb over the course of the day, and temperatures will flirt with 90.

If 90 doesn't happen by Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday features much hotter conditions with widespread temperatures in the mid 90s to coincide with high humidity.

Dew points will likely sit close to 70 degrees much of this week, bordering "air you can wear" status. When you factor in the actual air temperatures with the humidity, heat index values will exceed 100 for valley locations especially during some of the afternoons.

I could see heat index values peaking from 105-108 in Albany Wednesday/Thursday, which would warrant an Excessive Heat Warning from the National Weather Service. At the bare minimum, look for Heat Advisories to be posted for much of the region sometime over the next 24 hours, kicking in for Tuesday.

I don't see much relief by next weekend. Model guidance is still too inconsistent to confidently say the end of the heat wave is by then. Yes, while a good selection of guidance suggests modest relief by then, we have members still suggesting upper 90s by next Sunday, for example. I am certainly leaning towards slightly cooler conditions, but it wouldn't surprise me to see guidance swing a bit hotter.