What The EU Elections Mean – OpEd
By Ambassador Gurjit Singh
The recently-concluded four-day election (4-9 June) in the 27 EU countries for representation to the 720-member European Parliament, is the second-largest democratic election after;India’s recent election, with 400 million registered voters. The outcome of the voting for the next five-years has thrown up a right-leaning win that has changed the balance between centrist and right-wing parties.
There is much at stake, with repercussions within the European Parliament itself, and for the substantive domestic issues of the major countries in the EU. The question is: Is this election an indication of a future Europe turning right, or is it a reaction to domestic situations individually within states?[1]
The biggest winner is Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni’s;right party while German Chancellor Scholz and French President Macron have been the most significant losers.
There has been a build-up of sentiment since the previous election in 2019 when right-wing parties led governments in Hungary, Slovakia and Italy. They participate in ruling coalitions in Sweden, Finland and soon, perhaps the Netherlands. Polls give these parties a lead in France, Belgium, Austria and Italy.[2]
The European People’s Party (EPP) remains the lead grouping. It is the only centrist party to increase its share in this election: the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) are consistent, but the liberal Renew Europe group is diminished.[3]
The new Commission after the elections will have to set fresh priorities and could possibly acquire new direction. A reduced emphasis on green objectives could be a sign of the times to come in the European Parliament. The voters in various countries tend to believe that they understand their own concerns better than the ‘remote elites in Brussels’ and in national capitals.
Environmental reform is not the flavour of the season and Green parties have lost 18 seats in the current election. The signs were visible. Protests by farmers across several EU countries[4] were about the environmental regulations they have to follow, which they believe are unfair, and diminish their farm practices and livelihoods. These made headlines in several countries. Similarly, the EU’s effort to become a green leader of the world, providing trillions of euros for this priority, is now seen as overambitious.
Voters within the EU currently face high costs of living and public services. They are becoming more resistant to new green regulations which impact the cars they will drive or the kind of heating they will have in their homes and offices. Such environmental regulations which impact the daily lives of people and the capacity of farmers, were channelled by right wing parties to dilute environmental laws including those governing pesticides.
While the centre-right won the largest number of seats, the hard right also did well, but these labels matter less. Centre-right candidates often speak like the far-right on issues like environment and migration in order to win support, but they sit with the centre-right rather than the far-right. Such cross-cutting of issues and affiliations is the hallmark of the new European parliament.
The European Parliament elections, though fought directly, are often considered a referendum on governments in member states of the EU. In France, it has caused the most havoc because the victory of the far-right National Rally (led by Marie Le Pen) has led President Macron to try and deflect it by dissolving the National Assembly and calling a midterm election. Some French analysts believe that Macron’s decision is a risky gamble that could lead to the establishment of an extreme right government. Meloni’s skilfulness, in contrast, has made her and her right party much more acceptable when dealing with the hard right across the EPP.
In Germany, Angela Merkel’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) held on to its lead position, but the rise of the far-right Alternative for Democracy (AfD) has pushed Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ ruling centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) into third place. The ecologist Greens have lost ground. This is not good news for the ruling coalition.
In Hungary too, there has been a loss and therefore, in France, Germany and Hungary the European elections are seen as a challenge to existing national mandates. In Denmark, the Social Democrats retained their seats, which was seen as a referendum on Mette Frederiksen’s centrist government setting limits immigration policy. In Spain, Prime Minister Sanchez held on to an equal share as the centre-right People’s Party and thus protected his minority coalition government.
Its position of power gives the EPP group leadership of EU policy once again, though with a right-wing positioning. Typically, it would have a coalition with the socialists and liberals, but given the rise of the right, it is possible that on specific issues the EPP may have working engagements with the right-wing parties. It will be a nuanced relationship depending on the numbers and the issues.
Apprehending a challenge from the hard-right, the EPP’s Europe affiliate the Christian Democratic Union, the party of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, adjusted its views on climate and migration, leaning right. This will help. The participation of von der Leyen in Meloni’s initiatives like the Africa outreach through the Mattei Plan, was done to keep some of the hard-right on her side in the EU.[5]
On the far-right, Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy won more than 25% backing, annihilating the Northern League which had the hard-right legacy. They were joined by the National Rally, which got nearly 33% of the French vote. In the Nordic countries, the Green and Centrists scored better than the far-right parties.
The far right as a single group will henceforth be the second largest in the European Parliament, behind the dominant EPP. But the competition and disunity within it, means the priorities are more national than European. The chance of their functioning as a cohesive group is limited, but its increased numbers will surely mean greater right-wing input to EU policy.
The biggest victor of this process is Giorgia Meloni, who will hold her G7 summit on June 13, buoyed by these election results.
- About the author: Gurjit Singh is a former Indian Ambassador to Germany. He is currently promoting the impact investment movement for implementing SDGs in Africa.
- Source: This article was written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations.
References
[1] European Parliament Elections 2024: What is at Stake?, Intereconomics , Volume 59,2024, Number 2, p 60
[2] Cas Mudde, The Far Right and the 2024 European Elections, Intereconomics , Volume 59,2024, Number 2, p 61https://www.intereconomics.eu/contents/year/2024/number/2/article/the-far-right-and-the-2024-european-elections.htm
[3] European Elections 2024 Election results https://results.elections.europa.eu/
[4] Alan Mathews, Farmer Protests and the 2024 European Parliament Elections, Intereconomics , Volume 59,2024, Number 2, p 88
[5] Gurjit Singh, Italy reaches out to Africa, Gateway House, 8 February 2024, https://www.gatewayhouse.in/italy-reaches-out-to-africa/