Game Chat: Mets vs. Cubs, 7:10 P.M.

Sunday, June 23, 2024 • 7:10 PM
Wrigley Field • Chicago, IL
RHP Luis Severino (4-2, 3.52) vs. RHP Javier Assad (4-2, 2.75)
ESPN

Friday and Saturday’s games have been inverses of each. other for the New York Mets. On Friday afternoon, the Mets’ bats could not be stopped and the pitching sliced through the Chicago Cubs’ lineup. Saturday afternoon, the Cubs returned the favor cruising to a victory against the Mets. The series comes down to tonight’s rubber game on national television.

Mets Lineup

1. Francisco Lindor, SS
2. Brandon Nimmo, LF
3. J.D. Martinez, DH
4. Pete Alonso, 1B
5. Francisco Alvarez, C
6. DJ Stewart, RF
7. Mark Vientos, 3B
8. Jeff McNeil, 2B
9. Harrison Bader, CF

Luis Severino has pitched 84 1/3 innings for the Mets this season over 14 starts posting a 3.52 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 1.198 WHIP, and a 109 ERA+. He’s coming off of a rough start against the Rangers where he allowed six runs over 6 1/3 innings from eight hits, a game the Mets eventually won 7-6. In his two starts before that one he allowed only two runs from 14 hits over 14 innings.

One of his best starts this season came against the Cubs where he pitched eight innings of one-hit baseball. The Cubs have the following career numbers against Severino:

• Michael Busch 0-2, BB, K
• Pete Crow-Armstrong 0-3
• Ian Happ 1-5, BB, 2 K
• Nico Hoerner 0-6, K
• Christopher Morel 1-6, K
• Dansby Swanson 1-3, K
• Patrick Wisdom 0-2, BB, 2 K

Cubs Lineup

1. Nico Hoerner, 2B
2. Michael Busch, 1B
3. Cody Bellinger, RF
4. Seiya Suzuki, DH
5. Ian Happ, LF
6. Christopher Morel, 3B
7. Dansby Swanson, SS
8. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
9. Miguel Amaya, C

Javier Assad is having a great season for the Cubs. Over 78 2/3 innings (15 starts), the 26-year old has a 2.75 ER, 3.79 FIP, 1.246 WHIP, and a 151 ERA+. Similar to Saturday’s starter, Jameson Taillon, he had a rough stretch in mid-May to early June. During that stretch he had a 5.66 ERA, 5.81 FIP over 20 2/3 innings. Since then, he has allowed three runs over 9 2/3 innings.

He had a solid, if not a bit short start against the Mets in April where he allowed one run from five hits over five innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 0-4
• Harrison Bader 0-1
• Francisco Lindor 2-5, BB
• J.D. Martinez 1-4, K
• Jeff McNeil 1-4, BB
• Brandon Nimmo 1-6, 2 K
• DJ Stewart 0-2, K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-3

Game Notes

After missing the last game with injury, and leaving the previous game, Starling Marte is still not in the lineup as he deals with a knee issue.

Luisangel Acuña had a huge day for Syracuse (Triple-A). He went 3-for-4 with two RBIs raising his season OPS over the .700 mark.

Three Things To Watch For

1. How do the Mets batters handle Javier’s arsenal? According to Baseball Savant, Javier Assad has been mixing in six different pitches to hitters this year. He uses a low-90 mph sinker 36% of the time. His next two most frequent pitches are a high-80 mph cutter (20% of the time) and a low-90 mph four-seam fastball(19% of the time). Finally, he mixes in a curveball, slider, and changeup. It’s worth noting that since June 5, hitters xwOBA against Assad has been ticking quite a bit above league average.
2. Strikeouts. The Mets’ batters had 14 strikeouts on Saturday with Francisco Lindor and DJ Stewart striking out three times each. Here’s hoping that the Mets change their approach at the plate today, work counts and wait for their pitches. Assad does not induce a lot of chases (13th percentile) or swing-and-misses (ninth percentile) which is potentially good news for New York.
3. J.D. Martinez goes for three games in a row. Saturday, J.D. went 2-for-4 at the plate, the second-straight game where he collected two hits. On Friday, he went 2-for-4 with a massive home run. Can that rend of multiple hits continue in Sunday night’s game?

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