Why the 2024 NBA Draft might actually be underrated

The 2024 NBA Draft is widely considered not very strong. Some executive have reportedly even called it the worst they have ever seen.

We have heard this from evaluators over and over, dating back to more than a year ago. It is a constant theme when people talk about these prospects and it is especially obvious in a year coming after a generational talent like Victor Wembanyama was selected at No. 1 overall.

The top players in this class are decidedly not on the same level as Wemby. But as people continue to label this a weak group of players, has it perhaps become underrated. According to Kevin O’Connor, that’s exactly what has happened (via The Ringer’s NBA Draft Show):

“I had a conversation with a GM last week. Basically everybody I’ve talked to, I don’t know if your conversations are similar with people around the league: People like this draft that work in the league. I’m getting a lot of positive feedback.” 

O’Connor added that while there are plenty of people who think this draft “sucks” as well, many feel that it good as well.

According to O’Connor, teams that are looking for stars are disappointed. However, he described it as a “great” draft to find role players and that it all depends on the priorities of franchises and scouts. He said that it’s actually a fairly deep class of prospects.

But it’s not just O’Connor who is reporting that this class has perhaps been a bit underrated. Here is more from Sam Vecenie (via The Athletic):

“I do think this draft will end up returning below-average commensurate value, but it’s worth noting that this is mostly something that public-facing people care about. NBA teams only have to find between one to four players depending on the year and the number of picks they have. They have a very different job than I do.

I think there isn’t the enormous talent level at the top that you typically see in a draft. I don’t have any Tier 1 or Tier 2 players in this class in my grading scale, and I’m typically not stingy with those grades. I’ve had 16 of them in the last four years. There are players who come out of Tier 3 and 4 to become All-Stars — I would expect a few will in this class. However, I don’t know there is a single prospect for whom I’ll look at what their median value can be projected as and say that I feel confident saying he will become an All-Star.

Having said that, I like the talent in the range from, say, No. 8 to No. 20. That group is, at the very least, on the same level as a normal draft, if not a bit stronger. From No. 25 or so on downward, I have fewer guarantee grades but more two-way grades than I normally do in a typical draft.”

So even though this isn’t exactly a great year to win the lottery with the ping pong balls and get the rights to the No. 1 overall pick, that doesn’t matter to most teams.

The majority of front offices will only need to identify a couple of players that they feel comfortable calling their names on the night of the draft. In this class, they may have plenty to choose from.

Jonthan Givony, a leading expert in the industry, agreed (via ESPN):

“I would argue that this is shaping up to be a relatively deep draft, not that different from years prior in terms of the number of players likely to have productive NBA careers. Finding players to take off our Top 100 prospect rankings isn’t that easy. There are a lot of good players in college this year, especially upperclassmen, and it’s one of the better drafts we’ve seen in a while on the international front.”

So even though stars haven’t yet revealed themselves, history suggests that some will hear their name called in the 2024 NBA Draft.

We just don’t know who they are quite yet, and that’s part of the magic.