Marlins series preview: Another rebuild
The Marlins go from the post-season to the bottom of the standings.
Last year the Marlins won 84 games, their most in a season since 2009, and they reached the playoffs for the first time in a 162-game season since they won it all in 2003. Despite that success, they parted ways with GM Kim Ng, replacing her with former Rays executive Peter Bendix, and the team is back in a rebuild movement with the third-worst record in baseball.
Miami Marlins (27-50) vs. Kansas City Royals (42-37) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Marlins: 3.55 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 5.12 runs allowed/game (28th)
Royals: 4.58 runs scored/game (11th), 4.05 runs allowed/game (10th)
The Marlins lost their first nine games of the season, and 24 of their first 30 games. They had a winning month of May, and while they have gone just 6-13 in June, they are coming off a 4-2 homestand against the Cardinals and Mariners that featured three walk-off victories.
The Marlins are dead last in baseball in home runs and walk rate, and their .282 team on-base percentage and .353 slugging percentage is worse than every team but the White Sox. They have been shut out nine times this year - more than any team but the White Sox - and five of those shutouts have come this month.
All-Star outfielder Jazz Chisolm is on a roll, batting .424/.460/.606 over his last ten games. Tim Anderson has the lowest walk rate for anyone with 200 plate appearances, and he has yet to draw a walk this month. He also has just three extra-base hits all year and is batting .209/.221/.224 against right-handers. Missouri State has hit much better on the road than at home, batting .250/.295/.477 with 5 of his 6 home runs coming away from Miami.
Miami has the worst success rate with stolen bases, getting caught 34 percent of the time. They have the sixth-worst Defensive Runs Saved at -16 and are dead last in Outs Above Average with Chisholm a liability in center, with weak spots in the corner infield as well with Josh Bell and Jake Burger.
Rookie Roddery Muñoz has bounced around from the Braves to the Nationals and was briefly picked up by the Pirates this off-season before being traded to the Marlins and making his MLB debut this year. He throws a 95 mph four-seamer, but relies more on his cutter, as well as as sinker, slider, and change up. He was lit up for seven runs in just four innings of work against the Cardinals in his last start, although he tossed one-hit ball over six shutout innings against the Mets before that.
Yonny Chirinos is a journeyman who had a 5.40 ERA in 85 innings with the Rays and Braves last year. He has a career groundball rate of 44 percent, but struggles to miss bats. He allowed just two runs on eight hits and no walks in five innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals in his first start with the Marlins. He’s a sinker/slider pitcher, but opponents hit .361 against his slider last year.
The Marlins have not yet announced a starter for Wednesday, but it would be Trevor Rogers’ turn in the rotation. He brings a 1-8 record into this game, but has pitched better lately, with a 3.29 ERA over his last seven starts. He throws a 92 mph four-seamer opponents are hitting .291 against, with a sinker, change, and slider.
Marlins relievers have a 4.11 ERA, 19th-lowest in baseball, with a slightly better FIP at 3.82. Closer Tanner Scott has converted 9 of 11 save opportunities and has given up a run just once in his last 19 appearances, but he has the fifth-highest walk rate among relievers. Former Royals farmhand Anthony Bender had a rough April in his return from Tommy John surgery, but has a 2.55 ERA over his last 21 outings. Lefties are hitting just .200/.229/.267 against Andrew Nardi.
If the Royals are going to stop the bleeding, this home series against a bad Marlins team is the way to do it. But this is still a team with some talent that is playing well in the last week, so the Royals have to show up and play some ball.