Will a Bad Debate From Biden Make Newsom the Nominee?

Democrats must know that Thursday’s debate could be a disaster for Joe Biden. 

After all, the president can’t go anywhere without tripping over himself with “gaffes” that are really the result of his prolonged cognitive decline. A comparison with Biden’s performance in the debates from 2020 will only accentuate the obviousness of his mental collapse. 

You can only imagine how desperate Biden’s staffers must be feeling, as they are hunkering Biden down at Camp David for an entire week of isolated-in-the-woods debate prep (and extra rest). The White House had signaled that it would be possible for Biden to return to D.C. after only a weekend of debate prep. Evidently, however, the candidate’s preparation sessions were just too poor for that to happen. 

The media — alarmed over the possibility that Biden will reveal the extent of his cognitive decline at the debate — is trying to set the expectation that the Atlanta meetup is unfairly skewed against the sitting president. For instance, MSNBC’s Alex Wagner said last week: “It already feels like the bar that is set for Biden to clear is so much substantially higher than the one Trump has to clear.” Expect this argument — however tenuous — to be a recurring theme in the media’s coverage following the debate. 

The major possibility that Biden could put on an embarrassing debate performance raises an important question: why on earth did his campaign agree to this? Biden could have easily avoided all debates this cycle by labeling former President Donald Trump as a “threat to democracy.” And Biden most certainly did not have to agree to a debate that will be the earliest in history. In fact, the earliest a presidential debate has ever been held was on Sept. 21 — and this was all the way back in 1980. (READ MORE from Ellie Gardey Holmes: Could Hunter’s Troubles Cause Biden to Rethink His Campaign?)

According to reporting by the New York Times, the man who had a major hand in orchestrating the early debate was Ron Klain, Biden’s White House chief of staff during the first two years of his presidency. According to the Times, the debate conditions that Biden’s campaign proposed to Trump “precisely matched” those Klain had laid out in an April MSNBC appearance. 

Klain has taken off work from his day job as Airbnb’s chief legal officer to lead Biden’s debate prep at Camp David. Apparently, Klain believes that he has the ability to wrangle Biden’s meandering thoughts into shape for the debate. Biden’s advisers told the Times that Klain has the “prized skill” of “cutting the loquacious president’s remarks into debate-sized sound bites.” Additionally, Klain is one of the few advisers who is willing to be “blunt” with the president.

Klain might be an egomaniac to believe that he can puppeteer a much-diminished 81-year-old on the debate stage. Or he could turn out to be the most skilled debate preparer to ever live. (He has in fact led debate prep for Democratic nominees for many years.)

Alternatively, Klain and other Democratic leaders could realize that Biden is hopeless and be using the debate to reveal just how far the president has fallen. This could all be in the hope that the splash of a horrific debate performance would force Biden to end his candidacy before the Democratic nomination this summer. A terrible debate on June 27 would give Democratic Party leaders the time and opportunity to have a “candid” conversation with Biden about stepping away from the presidential race to save the country from Trump. 

Regardless of their intentions, the debate could very well reveal the extent to which Biden has fallen, forcing him to end his campaign. 

If the need for a replacement Democrat nominee arises, the person who has best positioned himself to take Biden’s place — and cunningly so — is California Gov. Gavin Newsom. 

Newsom has walked a fine line. He has done everything possible to raise his national profile while also assuaging Democrat concerns that his goal is to replace Biden. Reports suggest that this was intentional. In September 2022, the Wrap reported, citing anonymous sources, that Newsom was “undeniably, unequivocally” planning to run for president if Biden decided to forgo a second term. 

Newson has put his national ambitions on full display. As I discuss in my new book, Newsom Unleashed: The Progressive Lust for Unbridled Power, he formed a super PAC with a national focus, embarked on several red-state tours, waged a national crusade against guns, proposed a 28th amendment to the Constitution, made several Fox News appearances, traveled internationally on multiple occasions, and even engaged in a quasi-presidential debate with then-candidate Ron DeSantis. 

Newsom has also established himself as the preeminent Democratic governor who is at the forefront of progress. In his 2023 inaugural address, for instance, Newsom claimed that California under his leadership was “Giving shape to the future — molding the character of the nation.” He has pioneered numerous progressive policies during his tenure as governor, including a moratorium on gasoline-powered vehicles after 2035 and free healthcare for all illegal immigrants.

At the same time, Newsom has been careful to declare his full support for Biden and to at all times repudiate any intention of seeking the presidency in 2024. After Newsom gave dozens of denials of harboring any of these ambitions, Democrat leaders finally got over their annoyance at his presidential gesturing and fully accepted him as their candidate’s leading surrogate. 

Newsom has thus achieved the perfect balance: he has generated widespread speculation that he would be the ideal backup nominee for the Democrats (as reflected in the betting markets), while also maintaining good relations with the Biden campaign and Democratic leadership. Although he has occasionally pushed his national ambitions too hard, to the dissatisfaction of those in California, he has successfully avoided the impression that he is seeking to sabotage Biden. 

Newsom also has a host of traits that are temptingly attractive to Democrats saddled with an aging and cognitively declining candidate. He is relatively young, charming, charismatic, seasoned on the national stage, has proven his ability to confront Trump directly, is married to a woman with a carefully cultivated public image, and has four young children. He has the star power the Democrats need. (READ MORE: Will California Voters Finally Rebuke Newsom?)

If Biden dropped out of the race, after a horrific debate performance or later this summer, Newsom would be at the ready to step in as the Democrats’ leader. And he would seize that mantle, as he is defined by his limitless ambition and arrogance. He has desperately wished to be president for decades. All the way back in 1998, he told the San Francisco Chronicle: “If you’re in politics and you want to make an impact, you should be as successful as possible and the most influential position is president.”

Newsom’s main obstacle in solidifying himself as the contingency candidate would be that he is a straight white man in a party with a distaste for such people. Vice President Kamala Harris has none of Newsom’s charisma or political talents, but she can point to her father’s Jamaican ancestry and her sex. For many Democrats, that’s enough for her to be their preferred backup option. But many others look at Harris’ approval rating, which, per RealClearPolitics’ averages, is somehow even worse than Biden’s, and realize that they would be better off staying with Biden than going with her. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a woman and the governor of a battleground state, would be a better choice for the identity-obsessed, but she nowhere approaches Newsom’s political talents or name recognition. While Newsom has spent the better part of two years running a pseudo-campaign, she has been focused on Michigan. 

Newsom’s other vulnerability lies in the numerous crises that have festered in California under his leadership. But, in the event that Newsom replaced Biden, it would be late enough in the election cycle that Newsom would be able to divert attention from the actual outcomes of his governance using his charisma and telegenic talent.

The person who will be watching the debate most closely on Thursday night will be Gavin Newsom. You can bet that he will be desperately wishing for Biden to deliver the worst debate performance of all time. If Biden does fail, Newsom will be stepping up to take his place.

Ellie Gardey Holmes is the author of Newsom Unleashed: The Progressive Lust for Unbridled Power.

The post Will a Bad Debate From Biden Make Newsom the Nominee? appeared first on The American Spectator | USA News and Politics.