Kurtenbach: Why I’m not worried about the Warriors losing Klay Thompson (and other Dubs thoughts)

Warriors fans might be fretting, but Golden State shouldn’t fear Klay Thompson going onto the open market in free agency.

That’s because I don’t expect Thompson to find the kind of big-money, long-term deal he wants from the rest of the league.

There are only five teams with salary cap space of $30 million or more coming into the season — enough space to sign Thompson to that big-money deal he wants: Detroit, Philadelphia, Utah, Oklahoma City, and Orlando.

Are any of those teams going to use that cap space on Thompson?

More importantly, are they keen to spend on him for three or four seasons?

I don’t see it.

Thompson would have zero interest in going to Detroit — no matter the number. I don’t think Detroit would be interested in him, either. The same is probably true in Utah.

Orlando is being held up as a possibility — they need a 3-point shooter. But there’s no evidence of traction there.

It’s also hard to see Oklahoma City seeing Thompson as a game-changing piece for them, particularly after they traded for Alex Caruso. Plus, you know Thompson would be a bench player for the Thunder.

The team that should elicit some concern from Dubs fans is Philadelphia. But Thompson isn’t even close to their first choice in a use-it-or-lose-it offseason. The Sixers have the cap space and the draft picks to go big-game hunting — Thompson is no longer big game.

Outside of that, who is going to move players and money to make room to add Thompson?

And in this new CBA environment, there will simply be fewer participants in free agency — at least when it comes to players on Thompson’s level.

Thompson can land either the term or the money from another team— someone will make an honest offer for him.

But the only place he can reasonably land both is Golden State. I’d be stunned if he doesn’t return.

Another exit

Steve Kerr is losing another top assistant coach. This time, it’s Kenny Atkinson, who is heading to Cleveland to be that team’s next head coach.

You won’t hear an unkind word about Atkinson from anyone in the NBA. His intellect and passion for the game is elite, and he picked up a raw deal in his last head coaching job in Brooklyn.

But I don’t see Atkinson moving as a big deal for the Warriors.

Yes, he was a critical coach on an NBA title-winning team, but over the last two years, I’ve been wildly unimpressed with the Warriors’ defense — the part of the game Atkinson has coordinated.

Much of this is an issue of personnel. You can’t win the race if you don’t have the ponies.

But tactically and individually, what progress have we seen from the Dubs on that side of the court?

The Warriors sold out to protect the paint with their smaller roster, allowing opponents to shoot 37 3-pointers a game — 40 percent of all shot attempts. And there were countless contests last season where those opponents actually hit all those shots. At the same time, all that selling out didn’t help much with interior defense — the Warriors allowed teams to score on nearly two-thirds of shots within six feet of the hoop.

The math seemed off the whole time.

Is Jonathan Kuminga — the only young Warrior with the potential to be an ace defender — someone the Warriors can actually trust on that side of the floor going into 2024-25? I don’t think so. Andrew Wiggins has regressed, and the Warriors resulted to a lot of zone looks.

It’s all a gross simplification. And it’s unfair to pin the Warriors’ defensive woes entirely on Atkinson, but he has to bear some blame, too.

His skill set is more holistic — better suited for the head coach role. And while he’ll be missed as a person and basketball mind, I’m not sure the Warriors will be worse off without him.

Of course, the Warriors have two assistant coaching spots to fill, following the death of Dejan Milojević in January. Is it Chris DeMarco’s time to step up into the “No.2” role? Look for Kris Weems, Anthony Vereen, and Seth Cooper to be in the mix to move up to the front row of the bench, too.

Four NBA names to note:

• The Warriors have seen their staff poached in recent years — can Joe Lacob put up some cash to pull Aaron Miles back from the Pelicans and Willie Green’s staff?

• Luke Walton was on JB Bickerstaff’s bench in Cleveland. Is it time for him to come back to the Bay?

• Jarron Collins’ relentless zeal to land a head coaching job rubbed some folks the wrong way with the Dubs, but he did do good work while with the Warriors, particularly on the defensive side. With his career progression stalled in New Orleans does he come back to the Bay?

• Frank Vogel won’t need to work for a long while yet, thanks to Phoenix still owing him nearly $25 million after firing him following one 49-win season. But if he does want a gig, he’d be the kind of defensive coordinator (with the bonafides on that side of the floor) the Dubs need.

And don’t exclude college basketball candidates, either. With the (above-board) pay-for-play nature of the collegiate game today, there are plenty of coaches looking to jump to the ranks of adult professionalism.

Adam Cohen, the former Stanford assistant now with Xavier, would be an exceptional poach, too.

Is that a plan?

The Warriors have a Friday deadline to waive, trade, or retain Chris Paul, whose $30 million contract for next season is not guaranteed.

Given the team’s salary cap issues, the Dubs need to move off that money. This is the reason they traded for Paul in the first place (don’t let the “veteran leadership” line fool you.)

But Thompson moving to another team could bring about the same result. And the possibility remains that the Warriors could lose both Paul and Thompson without meaningful ways to replace them (that’s roughly $70 million off the books with only a mid-level exception to show for it.)

It’s somewhat of a mess — one that could be alleviated by the Warriors and Paul extending the deadline for another week or so, to see what Thompson does in free agency.

When asked, specifically about that possibility on Monday, Warriors general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. said “I’m okay with the date. I guess we’ll see if that changes. But for now, I’m good with it. I understand the rules. We’ll abide by it.”

I wish I could say this indicates the Warriors feel great about Thompson re-signing, making waiving Paul an easy decision, but that seems bold.

And seeing as I have heard there is no trade traction for Paul as of this weekend, it seems to me as if the Warriors are going to waive him by the end of this week and hope it all works out.

It might. In fact, it probably will.

But that still doesn’t make it much of a plan.