Why The Looming Tory Defeat Could Be Even Worse Than The Party Fears

Even senior Tories privately admit that the party is heading for an era-defining defeat on July 4.

Every opinion poll of the election campaign – and therehavebeenplentyofthem – suggests that Keir Starmer is heading for Downing Street on the back of a thumping Labour victory.

The most recent one came yesterday, with Focaldata forecasting a Labour majority in the Commons of 250.

The Tories would be left with with just 110 MPs, 262 fewer than they had in 2019, if the poll is correct.

But that is not where the bad news ends for the Conservatives.

Detailed analysis of the Focaldata poll shows that the final result could be even worse for the party.

“We see this as a once-in-a-century election, with the Conservatives - previously on course for a 1997 style defeat at the beginning of the campaign, now facing the potential for fewer than 100 seats come election day if current polling trends continue,” the pollster says.

In all, Focaldata asked 24,536 people their voting intention between June 3 and June 20.

According to the poll, the Tories hold only around 60 seats by more than five percentage points.

That means that another small drop in the party’s numbers could see those constituencies flip to Labour, the Lib Dems or Reform UK.

With Rishi Sunak’s handling of the Tory betting scandal facing criticism, including from his own party, the chances of the party becoming even less popular between now and July 4 cannot be ruled out.

Focaldata say: “This campaign, like 2017, has been a campaign of great ‘change’. From D-Day, to Nigel Farage’s takeover of the Reform party, and the betting scandal, vote shares for all parties have shown material and real change.

“We are assessing whether to release a final updated model given how steep the fall in the Conservative vote share has been since the campaign beginning, where the government was set to lose in a fashion similar to 1997.

“They could face the prospect of going well below 100 seats, and towards 70 and face their own 1931 super-defeat.”

Other polls earlier in the campaign also forecast the Tories could end up with fewer than 100 MPs, but when respected polling firms are saying it’s a real possibility less than two weeks from election day itself, it really is time for Conservative candidates to become very afraid indeed.