Ray Richmond: The Best Comedy Actress race at the Emmys is poised to be the one we’ve all dreamed about

There are Emmy races, and then there are Emmy races. But there haven’t been too many in recent years like the one we’re poised to see when nominations are released on July 17. And of course I’m talking about the super-tight Best Comedy Actress, which is looking like it’s going to be a faceoff for the ages. Here are the five nominees I’m predicting: Ayo Edebiri for “The Bear,” Jean Smart for “Hacks,” Quinta Brunson for “Abbott Elementary,” Kristen Wiig for “Palm Royale” and Maya Rudolph for “Loot.” with Selena Gomez not far behind for “Only Murders in the Building.” It’s incredibly rare, if not unprecedented, to see so many recent Emmy victors going head-to-head in the same category during the same year.

Where do we even begin? Perhaps we should take the contenders (likely nominees?) one at a time:

-Edebiri: She’s the “It” Girl of the moment (if it’s still politically correct to call it that). This year, she’s already won Golden Globe, SAG and Critics Choice honors and last year won an Indie Spirit. She won the Emmy for comedy supporting early this year (for 2023) and switched things up to go lead this time, and no one thinks it’s bad idea – at least, almost no one. Edebiri is poised to become the 12th woman to reap Emmy bids for a single role on a single series. She’s so hot that you won’t find many people anymore who can’t correctly pronounce and spell her name, which in Ayo’s case is something of a miracle.

-Smart: All she did was win in this category the last two times she was eligible, in 2021 and 2022. She’s a 12-time nominee and a five-time winner overall, and voters adore her. Plus, she has the narrative of being ineligible for a year and on the comeback trail despite being poised to make it three in a row for “Hacks.” All things being equal, it’s usually the sentimental favorite who takes the prize. The question is whether all things are equal. Are they ever?

-Brunson: She might be seen as a longshot this time, but she did win in the category a year ago while Smart was on forced sabbatical. Brunson has won a pair of Emmys, including one for the pilot during the first “Abbott” season. While “Abbott Elementary” is no longer the hot show of the moment, if we’ve learned anything about its creator/showrunner/star, it’s that we underestimate her at our peril.

-Wiig: She’s a nine-time Emmy nominee looking to make it into double-figures this time and still looking for her first win. But the “SNL” alum is highly respected and could pull off an upset – if she’s nominated.

-Rudolph: Another “SNL” alum who also happens to be a five-time winner, this time trying to crack the lineup of nominees for “Loot.” She won one of her honors in 2023 in character voiceover for “Big Mouth.”

One interesting aspect of this potential lineup of nominees is how they represent both an old guard and a more youthful contingent. Age is of course a forbidden topic in Hollywood, but it isn’t in this column. Smart is 72. Rudolph and Wiig are 51 and 50, respectively. Brunson is just 34, Gomez 31 and Edebiri a mere 28. So it will be fascinating to see if that makes any sort of different to voters.

I have to admit that my partiality to Edebiri has a lot to do with my great respect for “The Bear” as a piece of television. Yes, she also has well-honed comedy chops, but that isn’t what she leads with on this show. I’ve been on the record before with my ongoing questioning of why this series qualifies as a comedy when it’s in fact an historically intense drama. Be that as it may, I’ll allow that “The Bear” somewhat falls through the cracks in its half-hour (mostly) format. However, if the 10-time Emmy-winning series pulls off a repeat performance this time (as is being widely predicted), I’m betting that Edebiri will be carried along in the sweep.

Out of the editors on Gold Derby, Edebiri is the pick of seven editors, while four are going with Smart. Among experts, the count is 11 votes for Edebiri, six for Smart.

Now, if we are going strictly on comedy and comic timing, Smart would be the pick here, with Brunson not terribly far behind (even though I find her greater strength to be her writing and producing skills). But what makes this category a particularly fascinating one is how it promises to cast such different comic sensibilities in the shows the actors are featured in. And my guess is that voters pay less attention to the label and the category than they do the performance

PREDICT the 2024 Emmy nominees through July 17

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions