Sharing A Friend's Summary of Drafting Strategies

Thought I would give some insight into how the MLB draft is conducted, because it is quite different than pro sports other drafts. Based on draft order, teams are given a bonus pool of money to use throughout the entire draft (20 rounds) . Further, every single pick has a projected bonus amount or 'slot'. Teams can offer bonus money at 'slot', above 'slot' or below 'slot'. Overall, teams can spend 4.99999% ABOVE the bonus pool money allocation without getting into penalties (think: luxury tax).

What the Guards (and other teams) do: The Guards start with their top few picks and work backwards. They will take the total projected bonus pool money for their top 3-4 draft 'slots'. Then they will look at players they like around the 3rd or 4th draft slot based on talent. Then they will determine how much they want to spend above/below slot for particular players. They contact players (the agents and/or families, not a player himself) and see who will take what they are offering. The agent/family/player has to determine if they like what they are hearing or not and compare to other offers. If acceptable, then that player's agent makes it known to other teams that they will not sign with that team. So the player falls in the draft until it is the turn of the team that offered the best deal to pick in the draft.

After the Guards lock that in, then they move on to the next highest pick and so on.

Here is an example: The Guards have the following top 3 Day 1 picks:

Pick 48 - $1.9M slot

Pick 36 - $2.5M slot

Pick 1 - $10.5 slot

Total – $15M

If the Guards max out the $15M without going into the tax, it is $15.9M.

The Guards will look at players projected to be around 38-50 in the draft and pick some of the ones they like/did deep dives. The leverage in negotiations depends on if the player is from high school or college. High school players tend to have more leverage because they can go to college instead of taking a low-ball offer or getting picked low in the draft. The 48th slot is $1.9M. If the Guards find a college player who will take a $1.5M bonus, which is $400k under slot, that means they now have $14.4M to spend on picks 36 and 1. Then they will move on to pick 36 which has a slot of $2.5M. Now the Guards can be a bit aggressive. Let's say they reallllly like a player who is projected to go around 15. That slot is $4.8M. The Guards could offer $5M to that player....and end up with a player at pick 36 that is a legit top 20 talent. Of course some other team could do the same and offer even more, but then that team has less to spend elsewhere in the draft. The trick is to strategically 'bank' bonus pool money on certain picks that don't have much leverage, thereby leaving more money to nab much better talent at other slots.

Then at the first pick, the Guards could take that $9.4M and then go down the list of their top players in the draft until someone accepts it. It might seem like the Guards could end up passing on their top choice on the draft board, but it is unlikely. Why? All the top players are college players so they have very little leverage. Further, even though the Reds have $9.7M in the #2 draft slot, the Reds also have to manage their draft pool for their picks and their overall bonus pool is LESS than the Guards.

It is VERY likely the Guards #1 overall pick is going to be 'under' slot. Some people will say "Guards are being cheap again". That will be a lie and it will show the sheer ignorance of the person. The Guards WILL spend up to 4.999% ABOVE their bonus pool money. The top pick is going to sign for the largest bonus pool era deal ever offered and it will likely be under slot. It will not be the Guards 'being cheap' or settling for someone not worthy of being the top pick.

The Guards draft record the last few years have proven that they are indeed masters of managing the bonus pool money. The depth of quality talent in the system reflects this.

For the draft itself, I am still hearing the same general names. Bazzana, JJ Wetherholt, Caglione, Condon, outside shot Burns.

Bazzana - oregon state, 2B, LHH - The Aussie native is a pure gamer. Think 'Kipnis' with more talent, more raw power, better contact skills. Bazz's defense is shaky, could end up in the OF, but should stick at 2B. Did well in the wood-bat, college all-star, Cape Cod league in 2023. Guards value this.

Wetherholt - West VA, 2B/SS, LHH – Would probably be the top pick without question if not for a balky hamstring the past two seasons. Not a big guy but simply has the best mix of 'low maintenance swing', contact and power offensively. Further, most likely of the top picks to remain in the middle of the diamond at 2B/SS or possibly even CF. Big bats in the middle of the diamond are distinct advantages in MLB. Like Bazzana, a Cape Cod star.

Caglione -U of Miami, 1B/LHP, LHH – Yes he can throw 100 MPH but Cags is also pretty wild as a pitcher. Already had TJ surgery. Most developed power in the draft with just enough contact skills. All of 6-5 with a powerful build and decent athleticism for his size.

Condon - GA, 3B/OF, RHH. -- Condon got all the headlines for his record-setting HR totals this season. More of a Richie Sexson build. Played 3B but will settle in at LF/RF/1B very well. Did NOT do well in the Cape league last year but he has improved since then.

Burns - Wake Forest, RHP – If Burns is the next Paul Skenes, do you take him first overall? Yes you do. But Burns isn't QUITE that. Has the velo but not quite the same fastball movement as Skenes. Elite slider absolutely destroyed college hitters this year, nearly 2Ks per inning.

What will the Guards do? I'm still guessing Bazzana. Familiarity with the Oregon State program (Kwan's school). Bazz is a gamer in the mold of what the Guards like, great teammate, lives/breathes baseball. Good, not great, athlete. Could easily be in the big within 2 years. Yet, I still get this feeling that Wetherholt could be in play as well. He was the unquestioned BEST hitter coming into this season and aside from his hamstring injury, he is still truly the BEST hitter in this draft. It is a bonus that he is a plus athlete and can probably stick in the middle of the diamond as well. Some scouts have him as the most talented hitter coming out of college in years. The Guards really prize hitters with a mastery of the strike zone AND the ability to drive the ball.