July 4 and Nov. 5: Explosive elections in the UK and America

In American and British history, July 4 and Nov. 5 are dates to remember. Britain will hold its next parliamentary elections on July 4, and the U.S. presidential and congressional elections are set for Nov. 5, 2024.

July 4, 1776 marked the adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia, in which the 13 American colonies asserted themselves as independent from the British Empire and the rule of King George III. Perhaps the most trenchant, but less quoted, line in the document is: “When government becomes destructive, it is the right of the people to alter and abolish it and establish a new one.”

Nov. 5 is known as Guy Fawkes Night or Bonfire Night in the U.K. It commemorates the failure of the infamous Gunpowder Plot of 1605, when Catholic conspirators including Guy Fawkes tried to assassinate King James I by blowing up the House of Lords during the opening of Parliament. The plot unraveled and Fawkes and his fellow plotters were executed for treason. The tradition of lighting bonfires to celebrate the King’s survival continues on Nov. 5, along with the expression “Gunpowder, treason and plot.”

In some ways, Britons will go to the polls to protest the “destructive government” of 14 years of Conservative rule under five prime ministers. The current one, Rishi Sunak, has called for the snap election. Already, some 60 Conservative members have chosen not to seek reelection. The disastrous economic results of Brexit are among the factors contributing to what could be a dramatic Labor sweep of Parliament and a large governing majority.

Labor Leader Keir Starmer has shifted the party away from its left-wing elements and former head Jeremy Corbyn toward more moderate and centrist positions, much like Tony Blair did decades ago with “New Labor.” Starmer, a lawyer and former head of public prosecutions, is seen as a pragmatic and effective organizer.

Whether a new government will be less destructive than its predecessor remains to be seen. However, the reasons for its election, if it takes place, are not unrelated to July 4 and the American Declaration of Independence, even though no one is challenging King Charles III the way the colonists challenged George III.

Nov. 5 and Guy Fawkes Night are highly relevant to the U.S. election and the choice between incumbent Joe Biden and challenger Donald Trump. For the time being, the dynamite is only rhetorical. Biden calls Trump a “dictator.” Trump says Biden is the “worst president” in American history.

Both parties are convinced that the other is a “clear and present danger” to democracy. Under these circumstances, if both parties are so certain of the threat posed by the other, how can a loss be accepted? Does that mean another Jan. 6 is possible?

For many Americans, an alternative to both candidates is needed. Barring an unlikely intervening event, that will not happen. An aging president and a vice president who is not seen as capable of holding higher responsibilities face a 78-year-old convicted felon whom Judge Lewis A. Kaplan declared in a civil suit to be liable for sexual assault. Had Trump not been a former president running for reelection, the so-called Manhattan “hush money” trial might not have occurred, but that fact does not erase the civil judgment against Trump for raping E. Jean Carroll.

Thursday’s presidential debate was a disaster. While Biden has a far greater understanding of the issues than his opponent, his halting performance was questioned by Democrats as well as Republicans. Trump’s refusal to answer questions directly was less a sin than his refusal to recognize truth, fact and reality. The big loser was America.

One outcome is certain. As Nov. 5 approaches, the mix of animosity, antipathy and even hatred between the two parties and candidates could produce a highly explosive situation. While no single King James exists as a cause, perhaps there are two other targets each party would like to destroy.

If the election is as close as the polls suggest, could there be another Jan. 6­–like protest on steroids? Why would Trump accept defeat any easier than he did in 2020? If Biden sees Trump as such a danger to the republic, how could he accept losing?

While there may not be barrels of gunpowder buried under the Capitol, Nov. 5 may be a fitting date for this election.

Harlan Ullman Ph.D. is a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of the “shock and awe” military doctrine. His 12th book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large,” is available on Amazon.