Kent general election: Dartford ‘bellwether’ seat could spell end of Conservative rule
What do Loughborough, Northampton, Watford and Dartford have in common?
To most people, nothing really, and they would be right. To the psephologist, however, it is obvious - they are all so-called “bellwether” parliamentary constituencies.
Put simply, the results in these towns will reflect the national outcome of a general election and there is no bellwether quite like Dartford.
Since 1964, the north Kent town has returned an MP from the winning party, whereas the others mentioned have been accurate for only 50 years.
Election watchers look to these seats for changing trends in voting habits, polling and census data to indicate the likely result.
For Rishi Sunak, it is not good news. Three major pollsters - YouGov, Electoral Calculus (EC) and Survation - all predict a Labour victory.
While the margins vary (Survation sees the gap as only 0.2% and EC 16.4%), the result is the same - Tory MP Gareth Johnson’s time appears to be over. His 19,000 majority in 2019 seems likely to vanish on a huge 16% swing to Labour.
One common theme in those three polling predictions is the presence of Reform UK, which averages 18.8%.
What polling cannot do, unless the constituency has been targeted, is to gauge the public mood on the ground.
How do Dartford people feel on the eve of the election?
Nigerian-born, Emmanuel Titus came to the UK in the 1980s and worked as a mental health social worker before opening his shop in Dartford’s High Street almost 13 years ago to the day.
A steady stream of people come into his tidy Charis Continental Foods, to buy meat, rice, oils and spices aimed at the African and Asian population in the town.
Constantly playing in the background is a Christian radio station - Mr Titus was ‘born again’ 50 years ago in his homeland - as he busies himself behind the counter or bringing trays of vegetables into the store.
His shop looks out to the magnificent 11th century Holy Trinity Church.
Around the time the church was established there, the Middle English word “bellwether” was coined, referring to a bell attached to the neck of a ram to indicate the location of the sheep flock. The ewes would invariably follow the male.
While Mr Titus’s trade is “going well”, his constant frustration is the parking situation at his end of town.
There is insufficient space for people to pop in and it is too expensive. Rents are too high - he says traders at this end of Dartford can pay up to £1,500 a month - and he is clobbered by electricity bills, driven mainly by his freezer cabinets.
“Trade is going well,” confides Mr Titus, “Quite a lot of people have moved to the area from London and I suppose we’re the only shop of this kind.
“At this end of the High Street, people have to have a specific reason to come here. The one-way system doesn’t help.
“There is a shortage of houses, too, and that’s because of the influx from London.”
Mr Titus provides a noticeboard free of charge so that local people can advertise and find available rooms to rent, usually at between £400 and £650 a month.
The estate agencies in the town show house prices for even modest two and three bedroom homes are well in excess of £300,000 with rentals at around £1,500 a month, surely beyond the reach of many local people in lower-paid jobs.
The shopkeeper voted Labour in 2019. But he will take the time to study the party manifestos before casting his vote on July 4.
“This is very important,” Mr Titus declares. “The person who wants to be MP has to want to do something that will benefit the people of Dartford and that’s the person I will vote for. But it is likely to be Labour.”
In his time, he has noticed population changes but also credits the Conservative council for bringing positive changes to the area.
At the opposite end of town, lunchtime drinkers are enjoying a beer at the Dartford Sports Bar, where large TV screens relay old Premier League matches, American football and boxing.
But for owner Chris Michaelas, 37, the business’s start was not auspicious. He opened the day Boris Johnson announced the first national Covid lockdown in 2020.
He was once something of a Boris fan, and took advantage of business support, including the furlough scheme, the Tory government was able to offer the assistance to prevent him sinking before he had the chance to float.
But the price tag for the pandemic, inflation and persistently high prices are putting as much pressure on Mr Michaelas as the cost of living is exerting on his customers.
Daily customers now visit once a week, and the weekly party-goers now venture out once a month.
The bar’s electricity bill has tripled since he opened - now £8,500 a month - and to retain the sort of margin he would like, he would have to charge £7.50 for a pint. He’s pegged it back to around a fiver.
Sky TV bills are up, food costs still rising and so are the water rates. The list goes on.
“I have to be price sensitive but I’ve had to take a massive hit to the profit margin,” says Mr Michaelas.
“The business is profitable. You have to drag every penny in and be very careful of your costs. We have fantastic customers and we have to look after them as best we can.”
Mr Michaelas will vote for Reform UK, despite backing the Tories last time. He feels disillusioned by the lack of progress in making Brexit work.
Border security, the NHS, social care, police and education are in need of an overhaul and the Tories do not have the answers, says the businessman.
Mr Michaelas adds: “The Tories are going to lose big this week and they are going to see a big decline in the future. As for Keir Starmer, he is petrified to show us what he stands for.
“The person who wants to be MP has to want to do something that will benefit the people of Dartford…that’s the person I will vote for.”
“We need as many Reform MPs as possible to deliver some core principles back into politics.”
Bunting bearing the flag of St George is strung the length of the High Street, most likely as a nod to England’s largely forgettable performances in this year’s Euros thus far.
On a bright sunny weekday, the town is busy and bustling. Tattoos seem to be the ‘in’ thing in Dartford presently, particularly on young mums as they push prams in the warmth.
One bearded man on possibly the biggest mobility scooter in the county has an inked face as he rolls sedately by.
There can be few towns in Kent with as many charity, betting or barber shops as Dartford. The expected chains - including Boots, McDonald’s and Holland & Barrett - are there, too.
It does not look prosperous. No one feels well-off presently, but no one seems to starve, judging by the comings and goings at Iceland.
Inflation may be down but the cost of living remains stubbornly high.
One wonders how things are faring down in Dover and Deal, which has been regarded as a bellwether since 1992 and is also predicted to go red by an even bigger margin than Dartford.
Dartford residents Nigerian-born Alade Bamgbala, 35, and his south Londoner partner Naomi Abe, 28, run a catering business called Floatin Buka, specialising in West African food.
Are small businesses being squeezed?
“Squeeze is an understatement,” says Ms Abe. “But you have to be very conscious about the cost of everything and how much you can pass on to the customers, otherwise you risk putting them off.
“We’re finding it tough but our customers are finding it tough, as well. It’s tough, very tough for everyone.”
A box of meat costing £49 a few months ago now costs nearer £70 and staples like peppers and yams have also rocketed in price, she says.
As the mother of a non-verbal, autistic eight year old son, her vote will go to the party which can demonstrate a commitment to relieving child poverty. She remains undecided.
“I voted Labour in 2019, partly because that is how my family has always voted and because I am a person of colour,” she says.
Mr Bamgbala - who has indefinite leave to stay in the UK - arrived in 2008. He is unimpressed with the government’s ability to process migrants effectively and humanely and worried by the crime rates in the town.
Despite his entrepreneurial inclinations, he is a Labour man.
Retired printer Keith Patrick, 73, has taken a break to smoke a roll-up in the sunshine near the bronze statues of Dartfordians Mick Jagger and Keith Richards of the Rolling Stones. (The plaque doesn’t bear the stars’ names, just referred to as the “Glimmer Twins”, although the council leader, Cllr Jeremy Kite, does get a mention as the man who unveiled it.)
Mr Patrick reckons there are too many new people in Dartford for its own good and things have “not particularly changed for the better” in the past five years since the Tories won a landslide.
He adds: “We’re just letting thousands of immigrants in - not just the illegal ones but the legal ones too. It was 650,000 last year, wasn’t it? It puts too much pressure on housing and the like.
“We should never have got rid of council houses, in my opinion.”
One would assume he’s a Reform UK supporter, but he has already sent in his postal vote for the Conservatives.
Census data seems to suggest the non-white population is higher in Dartford (27%) than the national average (17%) but the voter tends to be “strong right”.
Household income £48,000 in Dartford is above the rest of the country average of £42,000.
One woman pensioner, in her late 80s, carries bag loads of shopping and a few items - mainly books - from the charity shops.
She would rather not give her name but she is not short of an opinion: “This country has gone down the chute.
“I lived through the war as a girl in London until I was evacuated with my brother to south Wales, so I have known hard times.
“My mother learnt how to get by when rationing was still going on after the war ended.
“Food and money was scarce and you had to make everything stretch. Make do and mend, they called it. People don’t know how lucky they are today.
“Then I look at the state of this country and how it’s gone downhill - prices never come down, crime is terrible, the mess the NHS is in, all that Partygate business in Downing Street and a total lack of respect for authority and other people.”
So who will get her vote this time?
She barks: “God help us, I have always voted but none of this lot, none of them, deserve my vote.
“And I have to ask myself sometimes, is that really what my father fought the war for?”