Predicting homelessness: Housing risk insights from latent class analysis

by Katherine E. Marçal, Nicholas Barr

Millions of families with children in the U.S. struggle to afford adequate housing. Housing cost burden places families at risk for homelessness, and prevention efforts are hindered by limited understanding of insecure housing experiences at the margins. The present study investigated variation in housing insecurity experiences in a sample of mothers, as well as which risk profiles were most strongly associated with subsequent homelessness. Latent class analysis identified four distinct subgroups of housing insecurity: “Stable,” “Unstable,” “Rent-Focused,” and “Strategic Bill-Paying.” Classes differed on whether they made rent or utility payments on time, experienced utility shutoffs, or were evicted. Mothers who missed rent payments were significantly more likely to experience subsequent homelessness, whereas those who prioritized rent were more likely to have their utilities shut off but remain housed. Policy efforts should emphasize increased wages, rent control, changes to zoning laws and tax codes to prioritize affordable housing, and benefits that help mothers maintain their incomes such as comprehensive healthcare, paid maternity leave, and subsidized childcare.