Communications Disruption: Mariners vs. Blue Jays Series Preview

This weekend can only mean one thing: invasion.

The Mariners finally showed a bit of life yesterday to salvage a win out of that ugly series against the Orioles. To wrap up the last homestand of the first half of the season, the Mariners will play host to the absolute worst visitors, the Blue Jays. Even after losing these last two home series, the M’s still have one of the best home records in all of baseball. I’m not sure how much that advantage is diminished with crowds that are full of traveling Canadians. With Toronto limping through a disappointing season, this is the perfect opportunity to get a series win under their belt again and turn away those invading Canadians disappointed.

After making the playoffs three of the last four years, the Blue Jays entered this season as a clear contender in the AL East, though not necessarily a top team in the league. They were anchored by a young core of talented players and carried over the bulk of their roster that had been so successful in the recent past. Things have turned pretty sour for them pretty quickly this year; their lineup hasn’t been as potent, their rotation hasn’t been as strong, and their bullpen has been a mess. That’s a pretty bad combination and it’s led to one of the more disappointing seasons in baseball this year.

The lineup woes begin with the struggles of Bo Bichette. He was the table setter for the lineup in years past but he’s absolutely cratered this year. He’s in the prime of his career and posting a wRC+ almost 50 points lower than his career average — it’s flabbergasting. George Springer could have been counted among the disappointments, but he’s been on a hot streak over the last few weeks that has pulled his overall season line up to a little more respectable 89 wRC+. Despite all the consternation about his high groundball rates undermining the hard contact he’s producing, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is back to producing an overall offensive line much more in line with his almost-MVP season than his down year last year. The Blue Jays offense pretty much runs through those three players — and one of them isn’t really running all that well — though Spencer Horwitz has provided a spark at the top of the lineup since being called up in early-June.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Steve Russell/Toronto Star via Getty Images

Kevin Gausman has really struggled this year and it’s all due to a much less effective fastball. First, it’s lost about a tick of velocity. Second, he’s finding too much of the heart of the plate with it this year, instead of locating up at the letters like he has in the past. The result is a whopping .401 wOBA allowed off the pitch. A less effective heater has knock-on effects for the rest of his repertoire. Batters don’t need to chase his splitter or slider out of the zone as much since they can sit on his fastball and produce positive results; his chase rate has dropped by more than two points and the whiff rates on his secondary pitches are both down significantly. It all adds up to a lower strikeout rate and an ERA that’s approaching five.

Yariel Rodríguez made the move from Cuba to the US (Canada really) via Japan this past offseason and signed a five-year deal with the Jays. He had enjoyed some success in Japan’s NPB, working as a setup man for the Chunichi Dragons. He had been a starter in the Cuban National Series and for the Cuban national team and that’s the role he’s played for Toronto this year. He doesn’t have great command of his repertoire but he can get some swings and misses on his pretty good slider. A back injury sidelined him for more than a month earlier in the season, but he returned looking pretty strong. He had a particularly impressive outing against the Astros on Canada Day where he took a perfect game into the fifth inning and wound up allowing just a single run in 6.2 innings.

From a previous series preview:

After a rough season in 2022, José Berríos rebounded to post a solid three win season last year. The biggest difference for him was switching to a sinker as his primary pitch rather than his lackluster four-seam fastball, a pitch which caused him so many issues a few years ago. He also increased the usage of his changeup which helped him keep left-handed batters at bay. His big sweeping curveball (baseball savant calls it a slurve) was as effective as ever and it all added up to a 3.7 point increase to his strikeout rate and a 1.58 run decrease to his ERA.

Berríos held the Mariners scoreless in 6.2 innings in his previous outing against them, allowing five baserunners and striking out six.

The Big Picture:

The Astros continue to creep closer and closer in the standings, cutting their deficit to just two games after their series win over the Blue Jays earlier this week. They’ll travel to Minnesota this weekend to try and cool off the Twins. The Rangers continue to falter, losing their series to the Padres this week. They’ll host the Rays this weekend.