Eyeball Scout Weighs In On Spence, Gelof

The A’s have been playing some better baseball lately, and slowly but surely the roster is improving. Baby steps but steps nonetheless, as Oakland completes a 4-2 homestand with the highs of sweeping the Angels and putting up 19 runs on the Orioles Saturday.

Here are some observations from the Eyeball Scout as we approach the All-Star break (congratulations Mason Miller!)...

Mitch Spence

Spence has been, overall, one of the A’s better starting pitchers but he has had the annoying tendency to give up a lot of his runs on one bad pitch. In Anaheim it was a Mickey Moniak grand slam and Sunday it was a 3-run HR by Heston Kjerstad.

If not for the grand slam, Spence’s start in Anaheim would have been fine — same with the Kjerstad blast that accounted for 3 of the 4 1st inning runs that were the only earned runs charged to Spence in his 6 innings.

When Spence makes a mistake pitch there is a definite pattern. Usually it is to a left-handed batter and the pitch is a flat cutter or slider that stays out over the plate instead of getting in on the hitter. To my eyes it might be a tick down in velocity, as if maybe the pitch has too much arc and “lops out over the plate” instead of boring in on the hands.

Mistake pitches happen. If you throw dozens of cutters and dozens of sliders, at some point one or two of them are going to miss location, not move as much or where they should. The solution isn’t to stop throwing the pitch, nor is it to “be perfect” because no one is.

What I think Spence does need to do, though, is to get far more comfortable throwing his sinker — a pitch that moves away from a LH batter in contrast with the cutter and slider and curve — and then to throw it more in key situations, not just with the bases empty.

Currently Spence throws his sinker about 12% of the time, increasing it to as high 19-23% in some of his recent starts. The problem isn’t that this percentage is too low (although I think it could be higher), it’s more that he seems reluctant to throw it when the pitches are most crucial.

In some way, this does make sense. “If you’re going to get beat, get beat with your best pitch” is a common refrain and no one wants to watch a 3-run HR or grand slam sail out on his 4th best offering.

But if Spence doesn’t vary the directional movement on his pitches more, if LH batters can hone in on movement coming towards them, then he is going to remain vulnerable to having otherwise solid starts canceled out by mistake pitches hitters are all too ready to launch.

He is going to have to get more confident mixing in his “4th best pitch” in key spots because it’s essential to force LH batters to concern themselves with movement away from them. More essential than it is to lean on his 2 best pitches time and time again.

Zack Gelof

Gelof has shown some signs of life lately, but what that has looked like, really, is some great outcomes (HRs, line drives) scattered amongst too many “more of the same” swing and miss-athons.

Watching Gelof these past few games, what stands out to me is how desperately he needs something that has generally gone the way of the dinosaur: a 2-strike approach. Watching him swing hard, and whiff often, on 2-strike pitches is particularly painful knowing how adept Gelof is at hitting the other way — his best stroke is to right-center field.

Gelof is the type of hitter who if he knew how to shorten his swing for contact and hit the other way would still be a force because his off field swing is, if anything, his strength. A 2-strike approach allows you wait longer to see pitches, which guards against the kind of horrific at bat Gelof had Sunday when he chased a 3-2 changeup that started well low and outside and landed a foot off the plate and just as far below the knees.

This doesn’t mean Gelof has to abandon a bigger swing, but he can’t rely on it as his only swing, not when he is striking out in 36.1% of his plate appearances. And when you see his 2 strike swing being as big as his earlier swings, and he is whiffing so much, chasing so much, striking out so much? Adjustments are needed and that’s where I would start with Gelof.

Your thoughts, suggestions, observations? Here’s to a successful road trip taking us into the All-Star break, hopefully followed by a dominant inning on July 16th by Mason Miller!