Series Preview: Guardians at Tigers

This is a big series for Detroit

If the Tigers are going to save their season, they probably need to sweep the Guardians in this four-game series with them just prior to the All-Star break. If the Guardians want to stave off the hard-charging Twins as Minnesota faces the White Sox, they need to split or win another series against the Motor City Kitties.

Detroit enters the series at 42-48 with a -19 run differential, 25th in MLB with a team wRC+ of 90, ninth in Baserunning Runs Above Average at 3.4, 13th in Defensive War at -5.9, first in starting pitcher FIP at 3.47 (taking a hit lately due to Jack Flaherty being on the IL, but he’s due to return on Thursday), and 17th in relief pitcher FIP at 3.99.

Cleveland enters the series at 56-42 with a +97 run differential, ninth in MLB with a team wRC+ of 109, 25th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at -5.2, sixth in Defensive WAR at 4.4, 29th in starting pitcher FIP at 4.65, and second in relief pitcher FIP at 3.13.

Matchups:

Game One: Gavin Williams, RHP (3.67 FIP) vs. Keider Montero, RHP (6.02 FIP), Monday, 6:40PM

Analysis: Gavin Williams did not throw a single slider in his first appearance of the season, a pitch that was by far his best offering in 2023. Was this because he didn’t have a feel for the pitch pre-game? Was it elbow health-related? We are about to find out in the ensuing starts starting tonight. It would be incredibly encouraging for the Guardians to get a couple decent starts from Williams heading into the break. Meanwhile, they’ll try to solve a solid rookie pitcher for the Tigers in Montero whose bugaboo so far in two starts has been the home run ball. Can the Guardians get a ball or two out of cavernous Comerica here? That’ll be something to watch.

Game Two: Ben Lively, RHP (4.22 FIP) vs. Kenta Maeda, RHP (5.42 FIP), Tuesday, 6:40PM

Analysis: Lively has been such a key part of the Guardians’ first-half success, let’s see if he can finish strong with this start and another against the Rays before the break. Meanwhile, Maeda has struggled this year, so here’s hoping the Guardians’ top hitters, Angel Martinez 222 wRC+, Steven Kwan 174 wRC+, Jhonkensy Noel 167 wRC+, David Fry 160 wRC+, Daniel Schneemann 143 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 137 wRC+, Josh Naylor 125 wRC+ and (hopefully returning) Will Brennan 107 wRC+ can tee off and get some solid bump to their pre-break numbers, as well.

Game Three: Tanner Bibee, RHP (3.27 FIP) vs. Reese Olson, RHP (2.96 FIP) Wednesday, 6:40PM

Analysis: This looks to be the best pitching matchup of the series, and the Guardians will look to get Olson out of the game as early as possible and get to a Tigers’ bullpen that MAY be somewhat taxed at this point if games one and two can go the Guardians’ way, offensively. Bibee will try to control the best hitters on the Tigers, including Riley Greene 139 wRC+, Buddy Kennedy 116 wRC+, and Carson Kelly 107 wRC+.

Game Four: TBD (Probably Spencer Howard, RHP, 3.88 FIP) vs. Jack Flaherty, RHP (3.06 FIP), Thursday, 1:10PM

Analysis: It’s probably time for the Spencer Howard reveal, folks. Let’s see what the Guardians thought would be better than Logan Allen, here. We’ll also get a chance to see Flaherty return from a back issue with the Tigers likely gearing up to trade him later this month. A Flaherty rental has been on the top of my wishlist but I’m also fine if the Guardians’ tattoo him in this start and lower his potential value.