Editors Emmy nomination predictions slugfest: Debating whether ‘Baby Reindeer’ will prove to be the ‘Beef’ of 2024 in limited series [WATCH]

If there is any agreement among Emmy pundits this awards season, it’s the fact that perhaps the most competitive collection of categories surrounds the limited series genre, where an embarrassment of riches promises a dogfight among an abundant list of worthy nominees in Best Limited Series and the four limited/made-for-TV movie acting lineups. During a limited-focused slugfest debate in advance of the Emmy nominations announcement on July 17, Gold Derby senior editors Denton Davidson, Marcus James Dixon and Daniel Montgomery and news and features editor Ray Richmond were all in agreement that Gold Derby pacesetter “Baby Reindeer” is a worthy frontrunner that’s likely to ultimately take the top limited prize (assuming it is in fact nominated). But they were all over the map on how the rest of that category shaped up as well as how the performer slots were poised to shake out. While there are a mere five available spots to fill, Richmond believes he “could make a case for double that number deserving to be there.” Watch the quartet’s highly spirited discussion above.

Montgomery emphasizes, “I’ve got ‘Baby Reindeer’ followed by (Season 5 of) ‘Fargo,’ ‘Lessons in Chemistry,’ ‘True Detective: Night Country’ – and I’m going out on a limb because last year the Emmys decided that the only night on television that mattered was Sunday nights on HBO. So I’ve got ‘The Sympathizer’ in there (in the fifth slot). But I may switch that out later. chicken out and go back to ‘Ripley.’ And I also say, get it together, Emmys, and expands this category next year.” Richmond is going with ‘Baby Reindeer,’ ‘Fargo,’ ‘Lessons,’ ‘Ripley’ and ‘True Detective’ but, like Montgomery, is itching to add others bubbling just underneath. “If this category had 10 slots, I’d also vote for ‘Griselda,’ ‘Under the Bridge,’ ‘The Tattooist of Auschwitz,’ ‘Painkiller’ and ‘Masters of the Air’,” he says.

Dixon, meanwhile, declares that his favorite limited series of the year was “Fall of the House of Usher,” which is currently not among the favorites to make the nomination cut. He notes, “It’s way down in 15th place (in the Gold Derby odds), which just tells you something about how amazing this category is this year.” He has “Baby Reindeer” winning and predicts it will be “the ‘Beef’ of 2024.” Dixon adds, “When it came out, everybody was talking about it and they’re still talking about it months later. I think it’s going to win a lot of trophies.” He is otherwise picking ‘Lessons in Chemistry,’ ‘Fargo,’ ‘Ripley’ and ‘True Detective: Night Country.’

Davidson agrees about ‘Baby Reindeer’ being a likely Emmy juggernaut but cautions everyone not to forget “Lessons in Chemistry,” which he calls “the most consistent limited series of the bunch so far, one that’s coming over after having done well in he previous guild awards season.” He also has “Ripley” and “Fargo” getting in along with “Fellow Travelers,” a series “that has a lot of people rooting it on,” he believes. “There’s a lot of heartfelt emotion behind it. People love this show, and they love the performances of Matt Bomer and Jonathan Bailey in it. And it’s a really important story.”

Speaking of the acting categories, in Best Limited Actress the nomination odds at Gold Derby favor, in order, are Jodie Foster for “True Detective: Night Country,” Brie Larson for “Lessons in Chemistry,” Juno Temple for “Fargo,” Sofia Vergara for “Griselda” and Kate Winslet for “The Regime.” But several of the editors are picking a latecomer to the discussion in seventh place: Jessica Lange for the TV-movie “The Great Lillian Hall.” “I have Jessica winning,” Dixon offers. “It’s one of the best performances ever. Anthony Hopkins won (an Oscar) for doing a very similar thing in ‘The Father’ in terms of (depicting) the early signs of dementia and forgetfulness, and a lot of voters will be able to connect with that.” Richmond too is picking Lange in a performance that he calls “arguably the best thing she’s ever done.”

Montgomery still has Jodie Foster winning for Best Limited Actress and wonders, “Am I the only one? My top three are Jodie, Brie and Juno. After that, those two spots could go to any of 10 different women.” Davidson is picking Larson to triumph for “Lessons,” followed by Lange, Juno Temple, Foster and Sofia Vergara. “I don’t see Kate Winslet getting in for ‘The Regime’,” he adds. “I don’t think ‘The Regime’ is going to get in anywhere. But I am picking Sofia Vergara for ‘Griseldsa,’ the only nomination I have for that series, so take what you will from that.”

In the Best Limited Actor race, there looks to be a two-way battle developing between Jon Hamm for “Fargo” and Richard Gadd for “Baby Reindeer,” with the predicted top five on Gold Derby rounded out by Andrew Scott for “Ripley.” Tom Hollander for “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” and Bomer for “Fellow Travelers.” “Tom Hollander, lock it up!” Dixon predicts. “Three years ago, I was the only person at Gold Derby that said Ewan McGregor was going to win for ‘Halston.’ It was an eccentric, over-the-top, real-life person in a Ryan Murphy limited Series. Check, check, check, check, check. This is one of the easy ones for me. I don’t even want to nominate other people. But I do have Andrew Scott, Jon Hamm, Richard Gadd and Matt Bomer.”

Davidson is predicting Bomer and Scott for bids but admits to being flummoxed by the sheer depth of the competition. Richmond is going with Gadd to win as part of a “Baby Reindeer” explosion despite having thought Scott couldn’t lose after watching “Ripley.” Montgomery points out, “Everybody below (the Gold Derby leaders in the odds) is almost as impressive. You’ve got Tony Shalhoub for (the TV-movie) ‘Mr. Monk’s Last Case,’ David Oyelowo for ‘Lawmen: Bass Reeves,’ Hoa Xuande for ‘The Sympathizer,’ Michael Douglas for ‘Franklin.’ It’s incredibly stacked. But I have Richard Gadd winning.”

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