June retail inflation may remain unchanged at 4.7%

India's retail inflation likely remained steady at 4.7% in June, consistent with May's 4.75%, according to a poll of 10 economists by ET. The forecast range was 4.5% to 5.19%, driven by heatwaves, below-normal monsoon rains, and higher fruit and vegetable prices. The government will release the CPI data on July 12. Economists noted that festive demand and weather conditions raised vegetable prices, particularly onions and tomatoes. The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to maintain its stance until monsoon outcomes and food inflation impacts are clearer, with potential rate cuts anticipated no earlier than December 2024.