Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025: Denzel Washington (‘Gladiator II’) jumps into Top 5 for Best Supporting Actor [Updated July 9]

If the 2025 Oscar nominations were announced today, what would Gold Derby predict would be the nominees and winners? Our predictions center officially opened on July 1, 2024 and already more than 1,500 people have made their nominations forecasts in the eight top categories for picture, directing, acting and writing. So who’s out front to claim these golden trophies, according to the initial Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025?

Below, see a snapshot in time of our Oscar racetrack odds, updated on July 9. (See how the odds and rankings have changed over time by examining our previous snapshot on July 3.) Now expected to receive a nomination since the last update: Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) for Best Supporting Actor. He plays Macrinus, a powerful man who owns a stable of gladiators, including Paul Mescal‘s Lucius Verus. Washington is already a two-time Oscar champion for “Glory” (supporting, 1989) and “Training Day” (lead, 2001).

Gold Derby’s odds are based on the combined forecasts of Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. We will be updating the predictions center weekly by adding, deleting and changing contenders whenever new information is provided to us by the studios/campaigners.

SEE Oscars 2025: Make your extremely early nominee predictions today!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees

1. “Sing Sing” — 15/2
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 8/1
3. “Blitz” — 8/1
4. “Anora” — 19/2
5. “Conclave” — 10/1
6. “Emilia Perez” — 14/1
7. “Joker: Folie à Deux” — 15/1
8. “Nickel Boys” — 18/1
9. “Gladiator II” — 20/1
10. “The Piano Lesson” — 28/1

Predicted Spoilers

“A Real Pain,” “Hard Truths,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” “Wicked”
See more Best Picture contenders …

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Steve McQueen (“Blitz”) — 9/2
2. Sean Baker (“Anora”) — 5/1
3. Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) — 6/1
4. Edward Berger (“Conclave”) — 15/2
5. Greg Kwedar (“Sing Sing”) — 19/2

Predicted Spoilers

Ridley Scott (“Gladiator II”), Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”), Mohammad Rasoulof (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”), Todd Phillips (“Joker: Folie à Deux”)
See more Best Director contenders …

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

1. Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”) — 9/2
2. Mikey Madison (“Anora”) — 5/1
3. Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”) — 11/2
4. Lady Gaga (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) — 13/2
5. Karla Sofia Gascon (“Emilia Perez”) — 13/2

Predicted Spoilers

Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”), Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”), June Squibb (“Thelma”), Demi Moore (“The Substance”)
See more Best Actress contenders …

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) — 7/2
2. Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) — 4/1
3. Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) — 6/1
4. Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”) — 9/1
5. John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”) — 9/1

Predicted Spoilers

Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”), Jesse Plemons (“Kinds of Kindness”), Nicholas Hoult (“Juror #2”), Andrew Garfield (“We Live in Time”)
See more Best Actor contenders …

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

1. Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) — 39/10
2. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”) — 9/2
3. Zoe Saldana (“Emilia Perez”) — 11/2
4. Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”) — 6/1
5. Toni Collette (“Juror #2”) — 13/1

Predicted Spoilers

Julianne Moore (“The Room Next Door”), Joan Chen (“Didi”), Selena Gomez (“Emilia Perez”), Margaret Qualley (“The Substance”)
See more Best Supporting Actress contenders …

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”) — 19/5
2. Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”) — 5/1
3. Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) — 11/2
4. Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”) — 6/1
5. Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) — 17/2

Predicted Spoilers

John Lithgow (“Conclave”), Harris Dickinson (“Blitz”), Paul Raci (“Sing Sing”), J.K. Simmons (“Juror #2”)
See more Best Supporting Actor contenders …

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

1. “Sing Sing” — 18/5
2. “Conclave” — 9/2
3. “Nickel Boys” — 6/1
4. “Nightbitch” — 13/2
5. “Dune: Part Two” — 19/2

Predicted Spoilers

“The Piano Lesson,” “Hit Man,” “Joker: Folie à Deux,” “Gladiator II”
See more Best Adapted Screenplay contenders …

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

1. “Anora” — 37/10
2. “Blitz” — 4/1
3. “A Real Pain” — 6/1
4. “Emilia Perez” — 8/1
5. “Hard Truths” — 8/1

Predicted Spoilers

“The Room Next Door,” “The Substance,” “Juror #2,” “Challengers”
See more Best Original Screenplay contenders …

PREDICT the 2025 Oscar nominees through January 17

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