2025 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor
Almost all of the Best Actor winners at this century’s 23 Academy Awards ceremonies have ticked at least one of these two boxes: they were over 40 or portraying a real-life fellow. The only exceptions: Russell Crowe (“Gladiator”) and Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”) who were 36 and 39 respectively when they won for playing fictional characters.
In 2024, Cillian Murphy, 47, won for his portrayal of scientist J. Robert Oppenheimer in the Best Picture champ “Oppenheimer.” He was the sixth Best Actor winner in a decade to prevail for playing a real person after Will Smith (“King Richard”), Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”), Gary Oldman (“The Darkest Hour”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”), and Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything,” 2015);. The four to win for fictional parts were Brendan Fraser, Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”), Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker), and Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”). (Scroll down for the most up-to-date 2025 Oscar predictions for Best Actor.)
Just four of these 10 men won on their first nomination: Murphy, Fraser, Malek and Redmayne. Five of the other six had previously contended while Hopkins already had an Oscar on his mantle for “Silence of the Lambs.” At the age of 83, Sir Anthony became the oldest Best Actor champ ever. Other actors to win two awards in this category include Spencer Tracy, Jack Nicholson, Marlon Brando, Tom Hanks and Sean Penn. Daniel Day-Lewis holds the record for most wins in this category with three (“My Left Foot” in 1990, “There Will Be Blood” in 2008, and “Lincoln” in 2013) while Tracy and Laurence Olivier hold the record for most nominations with nine apiece.
Who will win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars? Below, we consider the contenders. This roster includes past Academy Awards champs, previous nominees and those looking for their first bids, be they film newcomers or long-time screen actors.
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Please note: To read full descriptions of each film, check out our 2025 Oscar Predictions for Best Picture. Category placement remains in question for several of these contenders who could be positioned in Best Supporting Actor.
UPDATED: July 9, 2024
LEADING CONTENDERS
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Tom Hanks, “Here” (Sony Pictures)
Anthony Hopkins, “One Life” (Bleecker Street/Warner Bros.)
Paul Mescal, “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
John David Washington, “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
STRONG CONTENDERS
Adam Driver, “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain” (Searchlight)
Andrew Garfield, “We Live in Time” (A24)
Ethan Herisse, “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Nicholas Hoult, “Juror #2” (Warner Bros.)
Jesse Plemons, “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight)
Sebastian Stan, “A Different Man” (A24)
Missagh Zareh, “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Films Boutique)
POSSIBLE CONTENDERS
Kinglsey Ben-Adir, “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
Austin Butler, “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)
Timothée Chalamet, “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Michael Keaton, “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
Barry Keoghan, “Bird” (Mubi)
Jude Law, “Firebrand” (Amazon Prime Video)
Cillian Murphy, “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
Dev Patel, “Monkey Man” (Universal)
Glen Powell, “Hit Man” (Netflix)
Bill Skarsgård, “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
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