Let’s figure out who the Cincinnati Reds will take 2nd overall in the MLB Draft

Don’t screw it up, Cleveland!

So far in 2024 the Cincinnati Reds have received -1.3 fWAR in total from the combined efforts of TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte, and Will Benson. In 2023, that group combined for 10.5 fWAR.

If you’re of the belief that a couple games against the lowly Rockies and Marlins followed by a few days off will get that group magically a) healthier and b) back to their 2023 levels of performance, well, you may not have given up completely on this 2024 Reds season. I’m just not sure I’ve got those goggles in my goggle bag right now.

I’m looking to the future, baby, and the future still kind of looks bright.

The 2024 Major League Baseball Draft begins this Sunday evening, and the Reds - thanks to the good fortunes of the draft lottery’s ping pong balls - hold the coveted #2 overall pick. Only the Cleveland Guardians stand to make their pick before the Reds, meaning Cincinnati will almost certainly walk away with one of the prized trio of prep prospects who are in the best player in the draft discussion.

That trio is generally considered to be Oregon State 2B Travis Bazzana, Georgia 3B/OF Charlie Condon, and Florida 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone. That’s not to pooh-pooh the potent Wake Forest duo of 1B Nick Kurtz and RHP Chase Burns, each of whom could find their name called by the Reds in a bit of a stretch, too.

Putting Future Value tiers on these guys and acting as if I’ve got a hair on my body that knows anything about projecting their big league careers isn’t my bag. I’ve seen some gaudy numbers and several highlights, but that’s just about it for this crop of college stars and their metal bats. So, I’ll defer to the folks who dedicate a whole, whole lot more of their time and expertise to the topic and seek their opinions on how the top of the draft might shake out.

First and foremost, here’s ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel with his latest MLB draft rankings. He’s got both Condon and Bazzana on the 60 FV tier, a tier above the rest.

The crew from MLB Pipeline lists Bazzana ahead of Condon, but gives each - as well as Caglianone at #3 - overall grades of 65. Unsurprisingly, that’s the order in which their latest Mock Draft goes, meaning Condon goes to the Reds at #2 for them.

Prospects Live has a more shaken (not stirred) top of the draft, with Condon going 1st overall to Cleveland and the Reds selecting Caglianone. Bazzana actually falls to 4th in their Mock, with Kurtz going #3 overall to Colorado. That’s different than their actual Top 300 rankings, however, because they suspect some of the clubs atop the draft may employ some chicanery with their overall draft bonus pools and try to select guys early who will sign under-slot deals so they can spread that money out on other players down the road.

RJ Anderson of CBS Sports has Condon, Bazzana, and Burns atop his rankings, with Condon going to the Reds after Cleveland selects West Virginia SS JJ Wetherholt (with intentions of signing him to an under-slot deal).

The Athletic’s Keith Law outright claims this is a ‘bad’ draft class while prefacing his final rankings of the top players within it. He’s got Condon and Bazzana atop his list in that order, though it’s worth pointing out he’s got Caglianone down at #8. He also didn’t think Nick Lodolo was a Top 100 prospect back in the day. I digress.

That sure seems to be a lot of folks suggesting that despite picking 2nd overall, the Reds are likely to land the consensus best player in the draft thanks to Cleveland likely being cute with their pick. You may recall, though, that a similar situation shook out back in 2017 when Minnesota took Royce Lewis 1st overall due to his willingness to sign an under-slot deal, and that left Hunter Greene on the table for the Reds (who promptly signed for a half-million more than Lewis at $7.23 million - the highest bonus given to any draftee that year).

I should add that the Twins used some of the money they saved in that Lewis transaction to throw a good contract at a pretty good hitter out of Mississippi State with pick #35. That was Brent Rooker, who made the All Star Game with Oakland last year before being perhaps the biggest snub among selections for this year’s game. Hunter Greene is great, but that was some quality strategery by the Twins, in hindsight!