Discounts Will Not Be the Main Driver of Shoe Sales This Back-to-School Season, According to Circana

This comes as footwear promotional effectiveness was down in the first quarter of 2024.

As pandemic-driven ups and downs in promotional activity level out, discounts are less likely to be the main driver of footwear sales this back-to-school season, according to Circana.

In a new release on Tuesday, the consumer analytics firm found that while consumers are focused on value, this does not ensure that discounts will drive demand.

In fact, footwear promotional effectiveness was down in the first quarter of 2024, based on Circana’s price and promotion trends data. And when asked what factor tends to influence their footwear purchases for kids and teens, just one-third of consumers cited promotions and discounts – behind quality, price, and child or teen requests, according to Circana’s Future of Footwear study.

This move away from footwear promotional effectiveness started last year, the company noted. In 2023, the percentage of footwear units sold on promotion from June through August returned to pre-pandemic 2019 levels, according to the company’s consumer tracking data. This return came after two years of volatility: a dip in 2021 when supply was low and demand was high, followed by a sharp increase in 2023 when supply was more plentiful, but demand was slower.

Along with a stabilization of promotional activity, Circana also expects consumers to shop closer to the time their kids go back to the classroom.

Last August, 60 percent of kindergarten through 12th grade parents reported that they typically make their back-to-school footwear purchases “close to the start of school,” according to Circana’s Omnibus survey.

“We saw this purchasing behavior play out in the flow of sales for the season, despite early brand and retailer marketing and promotions,” the company said on Tuesday. “In fact, last year, footwear sales peaked during the first two weeks of August, just ahead of the peak school start weeks, according to Circana’s Retail Tracking data.”

Assuming the 2024 school start dates are similar, the company added that it expects the same pattern this year; however, retail calendar shifts, with the addition of a 53rd week back in January, will push one of these weeks into the month of July and into the second quarter.