Is Biden’s Fitness a Beltway “Bubble” Priority?

For some Democratic senators, this has been a week split between two worlds. They have been bombarded with questions from reporters this week, creating a chaotic scene as they navigate the hallways. The topic, of course, is President Joe Biden—specifically whether or not he will and/or should step aside as the Democratic presidential nominee. Once inside their offices, the atmosphere shifts to one of relative calm, as senators and their staff focus on the day-to-day business of governing.

“Biden is a topic we’re hearing about from constituents, but not the topic,” said a top saide to a West Coast Democrat who requested anonymity while discussing internal office business. The aide said anti-semitism on campus has been the highest concern to constituents calling into or emailing their Capitol and state offices, with concerns over president’s reelection bid accounting  for “fewer than fifty” daily calls to their teams, plus roughly 3,000 emails since Biden underperformed against GOP nominee Donald Trump at the CNN debate in Atlanta, Georgia on July 27.

This is in stark contrast to the number of calls and emails Democratic offices fielded from concerned constituents during Trump’s presidency, a volume which peaked during Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation. “In terms of volume and overall intensity, the Kavanaugh hearing was the most insane,” recalled one senior aide to a Democratic senator who recalled emails arriving “in the hundreds of thousands.”

On Tuesday, immigration casework—not Biden—was the dominant topic of constituent calls for Senator Cory Booker when I stopped by his Hill office in the mid-afternoon. Desk assistants received four calls about immigration cases, one about an event at a park in the Garden State, plus a fifth from a constituent who was lost in the lobby and needed help finding Booker’s office. The office did not receive any calls about Biden’s candidacy

For Senator Ben Ray Luján, the aftermath of last month’s fires and flooding have been top of mind for constituents reaching out to his teams, though some are concerned about Biden, too. During last week’s recess, Lujan said a constituent approached him in the parking lot of his grocery store to say Biden should step down. “I usually give myself an extra 30 minutes to an hour to get groceries because people always want to talk,” said Luján.

So far, none of the 51 Democratic senators have openly called on Biden to step aside as the Democratic nominee for president, though Senators Tammy Baldwin, Tina Smith, Jeff Merkeley, and Dick Durbin have said they are very concerned by what they are seeing from the president. Democratic Senators Richard Blumenthal, Martin Heinrich, and Mark Warner have indicated that they need reassurances from Biden, who is scheduled to give his first press conference since the June debate on Thursday. Perhaps most troublingly for the president, Democrats Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown, and Michael Bennet told their colleagues at a closed-door lunch on Tuesday that Biden cannot win.

But the extent to which the issue consuming Congress is affecting constituents remains unclear. “This definitely feels like a bubble moment,” said a Hill aide who coordinates constituent casework for his office but is not authorized to speak on the record with reporters. “People here in D.C., especially reporters, are obsessed with whether Biden will stay or go, but our constituents are obsessed with other things.”

On Tuesday, I asked aides from eight Senate Democratic offices whether Vice President Kamala Harris was being discussed as a possible replacement for Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. “Certainly, but it feels premature,” said one chief of staff who was skeptical whether Harris would have a better chance against Trump than Biden. “In our office, we just aren’t obsessing over Biden as much as the media because, no offense, our constituents don’t obsess over Biden like you guys.”