Tesla could benefit if Trump returns to the White House

A Trump presidency could "push away cheaper Chinese EV players," Wedbush analysts wrote.

• Wedbush analysts note a Trump presidency may hurt the EV sector but benefit Tesla.
• Higher Chinese tariffs could limit competition, giving Tesla an edge in the US EV Market.
• Overall, Wedbush writes that Trump's presidency would be an overall negative for the industry.

As Tesla's stock surges and the EV giant gears up for its (reportedly delayed) robotaxi unveiling, questions are swirling about how the impending US presidential election will impact Elon Musk's car company.

According to a note to investors from Wedbush analysts, Trump's possible return to the White House could be a good thing for Tesla.

"Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched in the EV industry and this dynamic could give Elon Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment," Wedbush analysts wrote in the note.

Additionally, the Wedbush analysts wrote that a likely increase in tariffs on Chinese goods would "continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players (BYD, Nio, etc.) from flooding the US market over the coming years."

Chinese tariffs have remained a large talking point in Trump's campaign. The Republican candidate has discussed implementing a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, largely exceeding his former tariff policy on China during his presidency.

Some of Tesla's biggest competitors include BYD and Nio, which are currently not available in the US. But Musk has previously said China is "by far" Tesla's biggest competitor. He said a lot of people think the top 10 car companies will be Tesla, followed by nine Chinese car brands, and "they might not be wrong."

Most recently, Tesla's biggest competitor BYD just made a deal to build a $1 billion factory in Turkey, which could provide the automaker with a way around EU tariffs and make it a larger threat in the global EV market.

Even though a Trump presidency could benefit Tesla, Wedbush analysts said in the note it "would be an overall negative for the EV industry" because the EV tax incentives would likely be removed.

EV tax incentives allow buyers to save up to $7,500 when they purchase a new EV, although there's some caveats to the tax break, like a limited number of eligible vehicles.

Musk hasn't announced who he's voting for in the 2024 Presidential election, but has said it's unlikely he'll vote for Biden.

Musk has met with the former President on multiple occasions and said at Tesla's annual meeting that Trump calls him "out of the blue for no reason." He also mentioned in the meeting that Trump's "a huge fan of the Cybertruck" and his friends that have Teslas "love it."