Emmy predictions: Which drama series will lead the nominations?
Earlier this year, “Succession” garnered a whopping 15 Primetime Emmy nominations: a bid for Best Drama Series and 14 for acting. The HBO show from Jesse Armstrong became not just the most-nominated drama of the year but the most recognized show that year, while the 14 acting bids tied its own record from the previous year.
But how about this year? Does any show have a chance of getting close to the dizzying heights of “Succession?” Well, probably not. But we’ve combed through our odds chart to work out which of the shows in contention for Emmy nominations will garner the most bids. We’re going to go through drama, comedy, and limited series/TV movie separately and here we’ll start with drama. Below, we ranked our predicted Best Drama Series nominees in order of least predicted total nominations to most.
“The Curse” (Showtime) — 2
- Best Drama Series
- Best Drama Actress — Emma Stone
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+) — 3
- Best Drama Series
- Best Drama Actor — Gary Oldman
- Best Drama Supporting Actress — Kristin Scott Thomas
“Fallout” (Amazon Prime Video) — 4
- Best Drama Series
- Best Drama Actor — Walton Goggins
- Best Drama Guest Actor — Michael Emerson
- Best Drama Guest Actor — Kyle MacLachlan
“The Gilded Age” (HBO) — 5
- Best Drama Series
- Best Drama Actress — Carrie Coon
- Best Drama Supporting Actress — Christine Baranski
- Best Drama Supporting Actress — Cynthia Nixon
- Best Drama Supporting Actress — Nathan Lane
“Mr and Mrs Smith” (Amazon Prime Video) — 6
- Best Drama Series
- Best Drama Actor — Donald Glover
- Best Drama Guest Actress — Sarah Paulson
- Best Drama Guest Actress — Michaela Coel
- Best Drama Guest Actor — John Turturro
- Best Drama Guest Actor — Paul Dano
“The Crown” (Netflix) — 8
- Best Drama Series
- Best Drama Actress — Imelda Staunton
- Best Drama Actor — Dominic West
- Best Drama Supporting Actress — Elizabeth Debicki
- Best Drama Supporting Actress — Lesley Manville
- Best Drama Supporting Actor — Jonathan Pryce
- Best Drama Supporting Actor — Khalid Abdalla
- Best Drama Guest Actress — Claire Foy
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+) — 9
- Best Drama Series
- Best Drama Actress — Jennifer Aniston
- Best Drama Actress — Reese Witherspoon
- Best Drama Supporting Actress — Greta Lee
- Best Drama Supporting Actress — Holland Taylor
- Best Drama Supporting Actor — Billy Crudup
- Best Drama Supporting Actor — Jon Hamm
- Best Drama Guest Actress — Marcia Gay Harden
“Shōgun” (FX) — 9
- Best Drama Series
- Best Drama Actress — Anna Sawai
- Best Drama Actor — Hiroyuki Sanada
- Best Drama Actor — Cosmo Jarvis
- Best Drama Supporting Actress —Moeka Hoshi
- Best Drama Supporting Actor — Tadanobu Asano
- Best Drama Supporting Actor — Takehiro Hira
- Best Drama Guest Actress — Yuko Miyamoto
- Best Drama Guest Actor — Nestor Carbonell
So, there we go. We are predicting that both “The Morning Show” and “Shōgun” will earn nine nominations each. “Shōgun” is predicted to earn dual bids in both Drama Actor and Drama Supporting Actor while we think it will pick up at least one bid in every acting category. Meanwhile, we think “The Morning Show” will only secure bids in four out of the six acting categories, but that series is predicted to reap double citations in each of Actress, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor. “The Crown” is also expected to do well with two predicted bids in each of the supporting categories.
In other areas, “Mr and Mrs Smith” is predicted to earn four guest acting bids and “The Gilded Age” is set to snag three nominations in Drama Supporting Actress alone along with two other bids. “The Curse” is set to disappoint with only one other bid aside from Drama Series — Drama Actress for double Oscar-winner Stone.
“Shōgun” is also predicted to be the night’s biggest winner in drama categories as we think it will win four awards in total — Drama Series, Drama Actress (Sawai), Drama Actor (Sanada), and Drama Guest Actor (Carbonell). We think “The Crown” will win two awards — Drama Supporting Actress (Debicki) and Drama Guest Actress (Foy) — and expect “The Morning Show” to pick up one win with a victory for Drama Supporting Actor (Crudup).
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