Kamala Harris moves ahead of Biden as predicted Democratic nominee in betting markets

Vice President Kamala Harris surpassed President Biden as the candidate most likely to become the Democratic Party's 2024 nominee in betting markets on Thursday, as pressure mounts for Biden to drop out of the race against former President Trump.

PredictIt's traders give Harris a 44% chance of leading the Democrats' presidential ticket this fall, while Biden's chances fell to 38%. On Wednesday, Biden led Harris on the platform, 43% to 38%.

The vice president eclipsed Biden on major prediction market PolyMarket on Thursday, too, with traders giving Harris a 42% chance at the nomination to Biden's 38%. The day prior, PolyMarket had Biden's odds at 69%, and Harris's at 20%.

Harris also jumped ahead of Biden in the betting odds of winning the election on BetUS.com, with a 20% implied probability compared to Biden’s 18.18% implied probability. Trump surged ahead as well on Thursday, with a 69.23% implied probability.

Timothy Williams, director of public relations for BetUS, explains that lines move based on how the betting public is placing their bets as well as input from oddsmakers whose job it is to "balance the book." 

"What this tells me is we are taking significant recent betting action on Kamala Harris for her odds to have tightened so much so quickly," he told FOX Business. "Same with Trump – oddsmakers have to make the odds ‘tighter’ – meaning they offer a smaller potential payout – because so many customers are betting on Trump (and recently, on Harris)."

Williams said the fact that Harris is now ahead of Biden in the betting odds is telling, "and if history holds true, we may be headed toward an election pitting Trump against Kamala Harris." He added, "Betting markets have proven themselves time and again to predict future outcomes." 

"This is a really interesting time in the PredictIt market for the Democratic nominee, take your eye off it for an hour and there might be a new frontrunner," PredictIt public relations director Lindsey Singer told FOX Business. "But that’s one of the great things about the PredictIt market – it tracks public reactions to events in real time, no need to wait for polling results."

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A new poll released Thursday by ABC News and The Washington Post showed the race between Biden and Trump is virtually tied, but 67% of respondents said Biden should drop out of the race, and 85% believe he is too old to serve out a second term.

Betting markets tend to move with new developments, much like the stock market can shift according to the news. The prediction sites' projections for the Democratic nominee have been incredibly volatile in recent weeks following President Biden's disastrous debate performance against Trump on June 27. 

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Biden's odds of remaining his party's presumptive nominee surged in the betting markets Monday after the president delivered a defiant message to congressional Democrats insisting he would remain on the ticket, but have steadily fallen throughout the week as a rising number of lawmakers and high-profile supporters call for him to step aside.

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Harris' rise and Biden's corresponding fall in the predication markets Thursday came a day after Hollywood star George Clooney – a longtime Biden supporter who held a mega-fundraiser for the president just weeks ago – called for Biden to pass the baton in an op-ed, and amid multiple reports that major donations to the campaign are drying up.