Donald Trump, Ted Cruz lead among likely Texas voters in new poll

HOUSTON (KXAN) — Former President Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz hold single-digit leads over the Democratic candidates they face with likely Texas voters, according to a new poll released Thursday.

Pollsters from the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs and the Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University asked a group of 1,484 likely voters which candidates they preferred in several key races more than four months before the November general election.

When it came to the presidential contest, Trump earned 49% support among the respondents, while 40% said they intend to vote for President Joe Biden. Only 5% said they would back independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., while Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 2%. Four percent of the likely voters said they're unsure whom they'd cast their ballot for right now.

Pollsters estimated the margin of error among this group of likely voters at about 2.5%. The two universities conducted their poll from June 20 to July 1. Notably this period includes the days before and after Biden's poor debate performance against Trump, which has now raised concerns among Democratic voters and leaders about whether he should remain the party's nominee moving forward.

These numbers are coming out ahead of Biden's visit next week to Austin. He's set to speak Monday at the Lyndon Baines Johnson Presidential Library to mark the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act. It also coincides with the opening day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where Republicans will officially nominate Trump.

Texas Senate race

The race for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas appears to be much closer than the presidential contest, according to this Houston poll. The Republican incumbent, Cruz, is only leading his Democratic challenger, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas, by about three percentage points.

The poll shows about 47% of likely voters intend to vote for Cruz, while 44% said they'll support his Democratic challenger, Allred. Libertarian Ted Brown captured 3% in the poll. However, 6% of the respondents said they remain undecided at this time.

These numbers differ significantly from what a poll released last month by the Texas Politics Projects and the University of Texas found. In that June survey among registered voters, Cruz led by 11 percentage points (45% for him to 34% for Allred). The results, though, showed 14% have not thought about the race enough to have an opinion.

The University of Houston and Texas Southern University are not done publishing polling data. They plan to release a series of four other reports that will focus on school choice/vouchers, housing, immigration and climate challenges.

In the survey published Thursday, though, pollsters shared how likely voters responded when they asked about what's the most important issue influencing their presidential vote decision. The results showed the biggest motivators are immigration and border security (23%) followed by inflation (15%), the economy (15%), the future of U.S. democracy (13%) and abortion (7%).