How will former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas handle the short-notice test Tracy Cortez presents in Denver?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 59 main event between former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas and Tracy Cortez, who is undefeated in the promotion.

Rose Namajunas UFC on ESPN 59 preview

Staple info:

• Height: 5’5″ Age: 32 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 65″
• Last fight: Decision win over Amanda Ribas(March 23, 2024)
• Camp: Genesis (Denver, Co.)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC strawweight champion
+ Taekwondo and karate black belts
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 2 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Good feints and footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate and effective jab
+ Counters well with right hand
+ Improved wrestling ability
+ Solid top game/positional rides
^ Looks for/floats toward back
+ Active and attacking guard

Tracy Cortez UFC on ESPN 59 preview

Staple info:

• Height: 5’5″ Age: 30 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 65.5″
• Last fight: Decision win over Jasmine Jasudavicius (Sept. 16, 2023)
• Camp: Fight Ready (Arizona)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Amateur MMA accoldes
+ Wrestling base
+ 1 KO victory
+ 1 submission win
+ 1 first-round finish
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving striking skills
+ Hard hooks and crosses
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Solid striking and slick inside trips
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Rides well from topside
+/- Stepping in on short notice

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez point of interest: The cost of counters

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MARCH 23: (L-R) Rose Namajunas punches Amanda Ribas of Brazil in a flyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on March 23, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

The main event in Denver features an impromptu pairing of female flyweights familiar with the cost of counters.

An aggressive wrestle-boxer by nature, Cortez has seen her fair share of counterstrikes during her 7-year professional career. That said, Cortez has been able to balance out that dynamic through the steady dose of improvements she’s been showing on the feet.

Not only can Cortez counter with the level-changing takedown threats that she keeps in her back pocket, but the Fight Ready product has sharpened up her striking options at range. Whether she’s returning a leg kick or shaking up the rhythm with a hook-cross changeup down the pike, Cortez has gotten better at disguising her intentions and returns.

Cortez also has a natural aptitude for clinch striking, working particularly well when establishing frames while her opponent is pinned against the fence. These attributes will certainly serve Cortez well from a stylistic perspective, but she’ll still need to respect the traffic that’s coming back her way.

Enter Namajunas.

A talented opportunist who can accentuate her length through accurate and concise jabs, Namanjunas presents some tricky distances for her opponents to cover on paper.

Namajunas does well with judging the risk versus reward regarding her options of following up with crosses and kicks or backing up out of range. The 32-year-old has also massively improved her ability to set things up off of feints under the tutelage of Trevor Wittman – a coach who has helped Namajunas hone in on her skills by sharpening her overall fundamentals.

However, it has been apparent that Wittman’s presence has steadily faded out from Namajunas’ camp and corner in recent fights. Now primarily training under her partner, Pat Barry, Namajunas appears to flow a little more freely with her approach.

Namajunas still possesses a lot of the core fundamentals that were sharpened under Wittman’s watch, but the former strawweight champ will now shift stances much more offensively, showing some solid competency when working out from southpaw.

Still, I’m not sure how much shifting we’ll see from Namajunas given the looming level-changing threats from Cortez.

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez breakdown: Potential grappling threats

May 7, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Tracy Cortez pins Melissa Gatto to the mat during UFC 274 at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Given Cortez’s on-paper edge in the wrestling realm, no one should be shocked if she attempts to ground Namajunas early and often.

Wrestling from a young age, Cortez brings a strong skillset that has traditionally been a bit more rare to come across in the women’s divisions. Not only does Cortez possess solid level-changing shots, but the Mexican-American also chains attacks seamlessly to her inside trip whenever in closed quarters (which is a signature move of her longtime mentor, Henry Cejudo).

However, in Namajunas’ defense, the former strawweight champ has made quiet improvements to both her wrestling and overall grappling throughout the years.

After suffering her first loss to Carla Esparza, Namajunas hit an immediate upswing in her grappling abilities, displaying that she had more to offer than just opportunistic submissions from her back. Utilizing offensive wrestling and top pressure, Namajunas began taking down her counterparts, exposing them to submissions underneath her suggestive shoulder pressure and slick transitions.

As far as her defense goes, Namajunas has demonstrated excellent instincts regarding her use of whizzers in conjunction with some slick butterflies and legwork that help her get back to her feet when taken down. That said, Namajunas will still need to be careful when giving back exposure in scrambles given Cortez’s strengths.

Aside from being a competent backtaker who can seal rounds with superior control time and offense, Cortez also appears to have a genuine appetite for riding her opposition from topside while landing damaging strikes.

But with ground strikes often allowing for space, expect scrambles to be a potent two-way street in this stylistic affair. And if Cortez allows Namajunas to create scrambles, then she will need to be mindful of her wrestling-centric tendency to tripod to her base.

A superb back-taker, Namajunas has a knack for floating to or finding the back of her opponent in transit. And given that Namajunas is undefeated in fights in which she has scored a back-take, this will undoubtedly be the scenario to look for during grappling exchanges.

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez odds

The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the former strawweight champion, listing Namajunas -235 and Cortez +180 via FanDuel.

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez prediction, pick

Nov 6, 2021; New York, NY, USA; Rose Namajunas (red gloves) competes against Zhang Weili (blue gloves) during UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

Between Namajunas being the more proven product and the short-notice context for Cortez, seeing a 2-1 spread in favor of “Thug Rose” doesn’t necessarily surprise me.

Cortez may have already been in camp for a fight that was only one week out from this Saturday, but that prep was for a completely different fighter in what was a three-round affair. If Cortez were fighting Namajunas on a full camp in the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex, then I’d honestly consider pulling the trigger on her as an underdog given the stylistic nature at play.

Not only have superior wrestlers and clinch fighters typically troubled Namajunas, but Cortez appears to have a strong strategic presence in her corner that’s chiefed by Santino DeFranco.

Still, with this fight taking place in the big cage, Cortez will have a lot of distance to cover if she means to track down the fleet of foot Namajunas. Couple that with Cortez’s propensity to get countered off of kicks, and I can’t help but side with Namajunas in this spot.

Aside from making some solid strides in her traditional trouble areas, Namajunas seems to be feeling confident heading into this Saturday’s contest – which usually spells trouble for whoever is standing across from her.

Prediction: Namajunas by decision

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez start time, where to watch

As the main event, Namajunas and Cortez are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET. The fight broadcasts live on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 59.