Cleveland Guardians 2021 draft in review

Who were the hits and misses of the Guard’s 2021 draft?

As we continue our coverage of the upcoming 2024 MLB draft, which begins July 14th, I’ll be reviewing the last four Cleveland Guardians drafts, which have added considerable depth to their minor league system.

The 2021 draft was the first time MLB reduced the rounds from 40 to 20 (sorry Daniel Schneemann and Tim Herrin) which meant teams were more compelled to sign every one of their picks. Cleveland had a unique strategy in this draft, selecting 19 college pitchers out of their 21 draft selections. Let’s see how it’s played out thus far.

Just FYI, the age listed below is the age of the players when they were drafted just over three years ago, so just add three years for their current age.

1 (23). Gavin Williams. RHP. Age 21. $2.25M bonus.

A standout Friday-night starter at East Carolina, Gavin Williams was one of the most intriguing college arms in the 2021 draft. Here’s what scouting director Scott Barnsby had to say about him after Cleveland made him their first-round selection:

“Just a physical right-hander, power arm, up to 100 miles per hour. He’s held his velocity all spring. Two different breaking balls, both power breaking balls. We feel like he’s gonna get swing and miss with his fastball, his curveball and his slider. Hasn’t had to use the change as much, but we feel like there’s gonna be a feel there as well.”

Williams debuted at High-A Lake County and was a quick riser, getting promoted to Double-A after just nine starts because he was crushing the opposition to the tune of a 1.40 ERA and 39.9% strikeout rate. He didn’t slow down once at Akron, impressing with a 2.31 ERA over 16 starts to close out the season.

In 2023, Williams repeated at Double-A, but stayed there just three starts after annihilating opponents with a 0.63 ERA and 1.11 FIP. He made nine starts at Triple-A before duty called him to Cleveland, where he impressed with a 3.29 ERA over 16 starts at the MLB level.

Williams missed the first half of the 2024 season due to elbow pain, but he appears rested, healed and ready to rumble after 5 ¹⁄₃ shutout innings against Detroit in his most recent start where he easily was sitting 98 mph with his fastball. When healthy, he’s a mid to potential top-of-the-rotation arm.

2 (58). Doug Nikhazy. LHP. Age 21. $1.2M bonus.

Drafted out of Ole Miss with a second round pick, Nikhazy was a fierce southpaw competitor in the SEC. Here’s what Barnsby had to say on draft day:

“He throws a lot of strikes and misses bats. We feel like he’s going to be a really good reliable starter for us long term.”

Nikhazy got off to a strong start with Lake County in 2022, earning a late-season promotion to Double-A after sporting a 3.19 ERA over 21 starts. He spent his entire 2023 season at Akron, but struggled with his control, walking 6.44 batters per 9 innings with an ugly 4.94 ERA over 22 starts and 102 innings pitched.

Nikhazy turned a corner this year, adjusting his arm slot. He was selected to represent Cleveland as its starting pitcher in the Spring Training Breakout game, then proceeded do dominate Double-A to the tune of a 3.17 ERA over 11 starts. While his strikeout rate dropped slightly, he also cut his walk rate in half. Nikhazy recently was promoted to Triple-A and has yet to give up a run in three starts spanning 17 innings with Columbus. He could be in the mix to help Cleveland soon.

3 (69). Tommy Mace. RHP. Age 21. $1.1M bonus.

Mace was a second-round competitive balance pick out of Florida, one of three Gator pitchers Cleveland drafted in 2021. Standing 6-foot-6, he’s never been an overpowering strikeout guy, but he’s pitched to contact effectively.

Mace spent his entire 2022 season at High-A, sporting a 4.55 ERA. He briefly repeated there in 2023 before earning a promotion to Double-A, where he again struggled. He repeated at Double-A this season and has improved in all areas except strikeout rate, where he currently has a career-low 6.74 whiffs per 9 innings. On the bright side, he’s also walking the fewest batters of his career at 2.7 per 9. He could make it to Triple-A by the end of the season, but realistically needs to figure out how to strike batters out more consistently before he has a chance to make it in an MLB rotation.

4 (95). Jake Fox. OF/LHH. Age 18. $850K bonus.

An intriguing prep bat, Cleveland broke its streak by selecting Fox, initially as a middle infielder before transitioning to the outfield. Fox dominated in Arizona the year he was drafted, slashing .405/.469/.429 with a 146 wRC+, which earned him a shot at full-season ball to begin the 2022 season.

Fox moved up one level each year, but after sporting a 105 wRC+ in 2023 at High-A, Cleveland chose to repeat him there to begin this season. Instead of showing massive improvement, Fox has regressed. The good news is his strikeout rate is down 1.6% and his walk rate has spiked to 13.7%, but his contact is at a career low, slashing just .219/.328/.338 through 58 games this season. Hopefully the 21-year-old can get back on track and start hitting with more consistency.

5 (125). Ryan Webb. LHP. Age 22. $400K bonus.

Webb was the type of college arm that possibly could have been a first round draft pick in 2021, but he had undergone Tommy John surgery already, which allowed him to slip to the fourth round. He did not make his pro debut until June of 2022, nearly a year after he was drafted.

Webb showed flashes of brilliance in Single-A Lynchburg, striking out 10 batters in five innings in his second to last start of the season. He spent his entire 2023 season at High-A, where he sported a 3.29 ERA and 4.12 FIP, although he missed some time due to injury. His moment to shine was the Arizona Fall League last autumn, where he led all pitching prospects in strikeouts.

Webb made his Double-A debut this season and is having his best season yet, currently sporting a 3.08 ERA with a 3.93 FIP over 16 starts spanning a career-high 84 ²⁄₃ innings. He recently struck out 11 batters in six innings on June 30th and is poised to be promoted to Triple-A soon.

6 (156). Tanner Bibee. RHP. Age 22. $260K bonus.

Tanner Bibee is one of the best success stories in Cleveland pitching factory history. A fifth-round pick in 2021, he’s since added about 6-7 mph to his fastball while maintaining elite control of all of his pitches. Bibee didn’t debut until 2022, but he soared through Cleveland’s system, absolutely crushing High-A, then dominating Double-A following a midseason promotion to the tune of a 1.83 ERA and 2.61 FIP spanning 13 starts.

In 2023, Bibee started at Triple-A and lasted just three starts there (with a 1.76 ERA) before he was promoted to Cleveland, where he’s stayed ever since. He finished 2023 with a 2.98 ERA over 25 starts at the MLB level and finished second in the 2023 Rookie of the Year voting. With an injury to Shane Bieber this season, Bibee has become the de facto ace of Cleveland’s starting rotation in just his third professional season. He’s currently striking out more than 1.5 batters per 9 while walking 0.5 fewer batters per 9 this season.

7 (186). Aaron Davenport. RHP. Age 20. $450K bonus.

Davenport took the long road to success. He impressed in limited action at two levels the year he was drafted, which earned him a spot in High-A Lake County’s starting rotation in 2022. Over the course of the season, he posted a mediocre 4.21 ERA and 4.46 FIP in 23 starts as he watched fellow 2021 draftees Bibee, Williams and Nikhazy all earn promotions to Double-A.

Davenport instead repeated at High-A in 2023 with Cleveland hoping he’d turn the corner. He did not, instead reducing his strikeout rate from 9.93 K/9 to 7.46 K/9 while increasing his walk rate. This led to a career-worst 5.73 ERA and 5.81 FIP over 24 games spanning 114 ²⁄₃ innings.

Cleveland was forced to promote Davenport to Double-A this season despite him not deserving it, but the Guardians were rewarded as he’s pitching better than he ever has. Through 16 starts spanning 86 ²⁄₃ innings, he currently has a 2.80 ERA and 3.45 FIP while nearly cutting his walk-rate in half. His strikeouts remain low, but everything else is working. Something has clicked for him.

8 (216). Jack Leftwich. RHP. Age 22. $170K bonus.

Another Florida product, Jack Lefwitch was hailed as a major breakout candidate in 2022, beginning the year as the second half of a piggyback at Single-A Lynchburg, he dominated the opposition with a 12.53 K/9 and a miniscule 1.49 BB/9, eventually earning the opportunity to start games. He earned a midseason promotion to High-A and dominated there as well with a 3.12 ERA and 3.30 FIP over 10 starts.

Many thought Leftwich could follow Williams and Bibee to be the next 2021 Cleveland draft pick to make it to MLB, but he’s stagnated since. He began the 2023 season at Double-A and struggled mightily, also experiencing some injuries. Cleveland eventually moved him to the bullpen. He repeated 2024 at Double-A exclusively as a bullpen option and his strikeout rate has climbed back to 11.97 K/9 with a respectable 3.76 ERA, but it looks like he’ll have to break through to MLB as a reliever now, which is pretty crowded ahead of him at the moment.

9 (246). Rodney Boone. LHP. Age 21. $170K bonus.

Boone had the hottest start of any Cleveland draft pick in the 2022 season, absolutely dominating Lynchburg with a 1.85 ERA through 10 starts, earning a quick promotion to High-A. He hasn’t been able to find that same magic since.

Boone struggled after his promotion to High-A, then repeated there in 2023, actually seeing his numbers get worse, but he was promoted to Double-A anyways this season. Thus far in 2024, Boone has performed admirably with a 3.26 ERA through 9 appearances (7 starts) spanning 38 ²⁄₃ innings, but he’s also been sidelined with injuries and his strikeout rate is down nearly 2 K/9 to 8.15.

10 (276). Will Dion. LHP. Age 21. $130K bonus.

“Baby Kershaw” was one of the most impressive pitchers from Cleveland’s 2021 draft class and his numbers proved it. He dominated Lynchburg in 2022 with a 2.26 ERA over 23 starts. Then in 2023, he was even more impressive at High-A Lake County with a 1.87 ERA over 9 appearances (4 starts) to earn a promotion to Double-A. Once at Double-A, Dion again impressed with a 2.60 ERA and 3.03 FIP over 17 games (15 starts) spanning 83 innings, earning himself Cleveland’s minor league pitcher of the year award.

In 2024, Dion was the only member of Cleveland’s 2021 draft class to begin the season as a starting pitcher at Triple-A (not counting Williams and Bibee who were already at MLB). Expectations have been high, but Dion has struggled mightily at Columbus. Thus far this season, he has a 6.62 ERA through 17 games (16 starts) spanning 66 ²⁄₃ innings. He has a career-low strikeout rate (9.18 K/9) and his walk rate has nearly doubled (4.46 BB/9) while seeing his home run per flyball rate skyrocket from 7.5% to 20.6%. Triple-A often is a difficult adjustment, but Dion has really had issues making that adjustment. Until he does, he has zero chance of helping Cleveland’s rotation any time soon.

11 (306). Franco Aleman. RHP. Age 21. $180K bonus.

The third and final Florida product, Franco Aleman very briefly was given a trial run as a starting pitcher before transitioning to the bullpen. Aleman posted elite strikeout rates at every level, actually seeing his strikeout rate improve every time he’s been promoted.

Aleman began the 2023 season as a bullpen arm at High-A Lake County, striking out 13.35 K/9. He was extremely hittable, however, and had a 5.52 ERA over 31 innings pitched. Despite that, he was promoted to Double-A, and that’s where his season took off. After moving to Double-A, Aleman turned into Superman. He finished his 2023 season with 19 appearances spanning 24 innings without giving up an earned run. He posted a 14.25 K/9 with an elite 1.88 BB/9 with a ridiculous 0.98 FIP.

Aleman began the 2024 season at Triple-A with many thinking he’d be one of the first names called to Cleveland’s bullpen. His strikeout rate spiked to 16.2 K/9, but so did his walk rate (4.73 BB/9) and he seemed to be figuring it out with a 3.38 ERA over 13 appearances spanning 13 ¹⁄₃ innings. Unfortunately, he was injured on the mound mid-appearance May 8th with a lat strain and hasn’t pitched since.

12 (336). Hunter Stanley. RHP. Age 23. $130K bonus.

Due to injuries, Stanley only pitched 14 ²⁄₃ innings professionally until 2023, when he pitched a full season at Double-A, sporting a 4.92 ERA over 26 games (24 starts) with a 4.47 FIP. He’s played the role of org-filler this season, getting four starts at Triple-A among 13 appearances with a 5.97 ERA. He’s bounced between Triple-A and Double-A lately.

13 (366). Connor Kokx. OF/RHH. Age 21. $130K bonus.

The only other position player Cleveland drafted in 2021, Kokx has seen his performance decline every year since he’s been drafted. He had a 130 wRC+ at Arizona in 2021, then a 106 wRC+ at Lake County over 88 games in 2022. In 2023, he slashed .228/347/.311 over 104 games at Double-A, good for a 91 wRC+. His lone bright spot was 29 stolen bases.

Kokx has seen limited time this season repeating at Double-A and spending some time on the development list. He’s slashing just .211/.302/.237 over 28 games and his time in the organization is likely coming to an end soon.

14 (396). Davis Sharpe. RHP. Age 21. $150K bonus.

Sharpe was seen as a potentially elite bullpen piece following an impressive 2022 professional debut season that saw him dominate Lynchburg and Lake County. He began 2023 at Double-A and has struggled since, sporting a 4.30 ERA over 41 appearances. He repeated at Double-A this year and hasn’t seen much improvement, currently sporting a 4.13 ERA over 22 appearances while sporting a career-worst 3.31 BB/9.

15 (426). Trenton Denholm. RHP. Age 21. $150K bonus.

Denholm has been a solid innings-eater thus far in his career. He had a 4.79 ERA spanning 23 starts at Lynchburg in 2022. He was seen more as long relief in 2023 at High-A, but saw his numbers improve significantly, dropping his ERA to 3.16 and FIP to 3.18 over 77 innings pitched.

He is repeating this season at High-A and has switched back to exclusively starting. Denholm currently has a solid 3.26 ERA over 15 starts spanning 85 ²⁄₃ innings and could see himself promoted to Double-A soon after watching teammates Parker Messick and Austin Peterson get promoted in front of him.

16 (456). Alaska Abney. RHP. Age 21. $130K bonus.

Abney has exclusively been viewed as a reliever in Cleveland’s system. He was terrific in a small sample size in 2021, then impressed at High-A in 2022, sporting a 2.54 ERA over 42 games spanning 49 ²⁄₃ innings. He repeated at High-A in 2023 and struggled mightily, posting a 5.77 ERA over 53 innings and 36 appearances.

Abney again repeated at High-A this season and he was terrific, dropping his ERA to 1.08 and reducing his BB/9 to a career-low 3.24, which earned him a promotion to Double-A. He’s struggled at Akron thus far with a 4.41 ERA and a career-worst 6.06 K/9 through his first nine games there.

17 (486). Zach Pettway. RHP. Age 22. $75K bonus.

Pettway looked decent in 2022 with strong strikeout rates, low walk rates and a 2.00 ERA over 14 relief appearances at Lynchburg spanning 27 innings. Unfortunately, injuries destroyed him as he only pitched ¹⁄₃ of an inning in 2023 and voluntarily retired due to those injuries.

18 (516). Tyler Thornton. RHP. Age 20. $50K bonus.

Thornton has shown flashes of brilliance as a bullpen piece thus far in his career with elite strikeout rates at every level. He had a 15.06 K/9 in 2022 at Lynchburg, then a 15.99 K/9 in 2023 at High-A, earning a mid-season promotion to Akron.

Walk-rates have been Thornton’s kryptonite, however. His lowest BB/9 thus far has been 5.45 and he currently has a career-worst 7.04 BB/9 while repeating at Double-A, which has caught up with him as he has a 5.48 ERA spanning 21 games and 23 innings pitched.

19 (546). Tommy Ventimiglia. RHP. Age 17. $150K bonus.

Ventimiglia was the lone prep arm drafted by Cleveland in 2021 and he’s still a work in progress. His walks have been downright atrocious and he’s yet to escape the Arizona Complex League in three professional seasons. He had a 16.71 ERA in 2023 with a ridiculous 19.29 BB/9 over 17 appearances and 14 innings pitched. This year, he’s dropped his BB/9 to 11.28 and his ERA is the lowest it’s been at 5.64, but he’s also no longer missing bats as his K/9 has dropped to 8.06. He’s running out of time to figure things out.

20 (576). Reid Johnston. RHP. Age 22. $75K bonus.

Johnston looked decent in 2022 at Lynchburg with a 3.94 ERA over 112 innings pitched, then again looked decent in 2023 as a starting pitcher at Lake County with a 3.83 ERA, although his walk rate more than doubled.

He’s currently injured and has yet to make his 2024 debut. He’s not on the full-season IL, but instead the 60-day IL and hopefully will return to action soon.

21 (606). Jake Miller. RHP. Age 20. $300K bonus.

Miller received a decent bonus considering he was a 20th round selection. He got off to an OK start at Single-A Lynchburg in 2022 with 11.5 K/9 over nine starts, but then he had to have Tommy John surgery.

Surprisingly, he returned to action the following season, debuting just over one year later in July 2023 and making eight appearances (5 starts) over the season. Miller is repeating this season at High-A and has started four games in 19 total appearances spanning 40 innings. His strikeout rate is starting to climb back up and his walk rate is cut in half compared to 2023. He’s still a work in progress and could be someone to keep an eye on if he can fully recover both physically and mentally.

Undrafted free agents

Cleveland signed two additional players in 2021, both of them catchers.

Zac Fascia. C/RHH. Age 21.

A solid catcher out of Purdue, Fascia has exceeded expectations thus far in Cleveland’s system. He struggled mightily in 2022, but then impressed in 2023 with a 129 wRC+ over 52 games at Lynchburg, earning himself a promotion to High-A.

Facia has been solidly average at High-A this season despite playing behind top catching prospect Cooper Ingle. Facia has a career-best .154 ISO and is walking at a career-high 13% rate, good for a 96 wRC+. He’ll continue to find opportunities in the system wherever Cleveland needs him.

Seth Caddell. C/RHH. Age 21.

Caddell was Gavin Williams’ catcher at East Carolina, but failed to find opportunity in Cleveland’s system. He played one game in 2021, then 18 in 2022. He played just two games in 2023 before he was released from the system.

Summary

MLB: 2 (Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams)

AAA: 4 (Doug Nikhazy, Will Dion, Franco Aleman, Hunter Stanley)

AA: 10 (Tommy Mace, Ryan Webb, Aaron Davenport, Jack Leftwich, Rodney Boone, Connor Kokx, Davis Sharpe, Alaska Abney, Tyler Thornton)

A+: 5 (Jake Fox, Trenton Denholm, Jake Miller, Zac Fascia)

A: 0

ACL: 1 (Tommy Ventimiglia)

Injured: 1 (Reid Johnston)

Released: 1 (Seth Caddell)

Retired: 1 (Zach Pettway)

Signed players/Still in the organization (23/21)