Six lineups that will define Toronto’s 2024-25 season

The Battle of Brandywine (is this where Tolkien got the name?!) during the American Revolutionary War was one of General George Washington’s few (many?) missteps as a military commander. General Howe faced him in command of the British forces. Both had an equal number of soldiers. But Howe crossed the Brandywine out of sight of Washington’s few scouts, and he overran the Continental flank easily. The battle was a route. 

What seemed to be a powerful American defensive position turned into a disaster. The point: How you present, how you actually engage, is what matters most when the rubber meets the road. Both for 18th century military engagements and for basketball. And everything in between.

This is, somehow, the third annual lineup prediction piece I’ve done for Raptors Republic. How do all my pieces keep turning into annual columns? Who knows. Ask management, I just work here.

The piece in advance of 2022-23 was unrealistically optimistic — but who wasn’t coming into that season. Things went down the drain. Last season’s version leaned a little heavily on Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, for obvious reasons, but losing Christian Koloko and Otto Porter jr. hurt the predictions as well. This year, the Raptors ought to have more consistency and stability than they did all of last season, so we at least know what players will be on the floor. Maybe I’ll actually get things right this time around?

But because so many contributors from last season are no longer on this team or were injured, there’s not a ton of five-man data. So we’re flying blind. All the better. It means you can fool yourself into some things that numbers would shoot down. I’m definitely not going to get things right this time around. So let’s at least have some fun. 

The Starters: Immanuel Quickley — Gradey Dick — RJ Barrett — Scottie Barnes — Jakob Poeltl (2023-24 net rating plus-120)

Props to Samson, who was the first person I saw discuss Gradey as the possible starting shooting guard this upcoming season. Now it’s all the rage. So let’s get on the record buying in.

Obviously, the net rating is meaningless. A grand total of four minutes. Ignore it. But this group played 230 minutes without Dick, the closest thing we have to data on the presumptive starters, and enjoyed a very impressive net rating of plus-9.3. (Which is right around the 80th percentile mark for four-man groupings with at least 200 minutes together.) So there’s some evidence that this could work.

But could it work with Dick? He had one of the lowest on/off net ratings on the team last year, ahead of only Jalen McDaniels, Javon Freeman-Liberty, Garrett Temple, and Malik Williams. And even if you isolate for the back half of the season, when Dick started playing again in late January, the Raptors were still significantly better with him on the bench than on the court. But! If you isolate just from late January to late February, before the team fell off its hinges, Dick’s on/offs were about neutral. The Raptors played some solid ball, for a solid stretch, with Dick playing a solid role. That’s meaningful. And just by virtue of him getting older, he’ll likely put on a touch more weight for next season, which should matter on both ends.

The best fifth player alongside Quickley, Barrett, Barnes, and Poeltl last season was Gary Trent jr., and he ate up more than half of those minutes. Toronto still won its minutes with Pascal Siakam or Dennis Schroder alongside the core four, though not to the same extent. Take that to mean a low-usage shooter is the best complementary starter. 

Dick does that! Rookie Dick may not have been as helpful a player as sixth-year Trent, but I imagine that Sophomore Dick will narrow the gap. He’s a better movement shooter, with the potential for a higher volume of triples, and on lower usage. He has more craft inside the arc as a passer and finisher, even if he doesn’t always know what is going on around him yet. The outline of what Dick can become fits much better alongside Toronto’s best four than any other player on the Raptors. And asking Dick to be that type of player, early on in his career, should help him grow into himself. 

Perhaps he doesn’t become that player this season, and his minutes drag down the ability of the starters to win minutes. (I imagine the Raptors would be fine with that.) Or maybe having Barnes and Poeltl on the back end of the defense insulates Dick somewhat on that end, and his shooting pushes the offense to another level. It is in Toronto’s best interest to find out. I think the starting job is Dick’s to lose.

The Spaced-Out Offensive: Immanuel Quickley — Gradey Dick — RJ Barrett — Scottie Barnes — Kelly Olynyk (2023-24 net rating: 0.0) 

Once again, the net rating is meaningless. The minute total for this group was… four. And Olynyk played basically no minutes alongside both Barnes and Quickley, without even considering the other duo.

This group is very similar to plenty of others. That’s kind of going to be the name of the game for Toronto’s rotations this year; if the team wants to be good, there’s not a whole lot of depth available to make lineups work. This lineup changes out only one player from The Starters (Poeltl for Olynyk), and only one from The Future (to be named later in the piece). But the change from just inserting Olynyk would be dramatic. 

Poeltl is a heavy screen setter and roller. He finishes the easy ones and moves the gears on the offensive end. He pairs best with Quickley, who needs that space. But Olynyk offers much the same elbow and Chicago passing as Poeltl, and he’ll run nifty handoffs with Quickley, Dick, and Barrett. At the same time, he is a popper instead of a roller during on-ball screening actions. Barnes has never really played with a popper. 

In general, Barnes has always been at his best running pick and roll with the heaviest, hardest-hitting screener of the bunch. He loved his possessions with Christian Koloko because the then-rookie center paid such close attention to the angles and ferocity of the screen. Poeltl does that. But Olynyk can do far more that Barnes just hasn’t had before.

Olynyk only shot 33.8 percent from deep last year in Toronto, but he didn’t play in the most competent lineups. (He played only 99 minutes with Barnes, for example.) He’s a career 36.9-percent 3-point shooter, and he’s been almost at 40 percent since 2022-23, even considering his cold stretch in Toronto. His popping will create spaces and angles for drives that are different than those created by Poeltl’s screening. Barnes will find more lanes against defenders moving towards him, rather than towards the rim, which might lend itself towards more straight-line drives and fewer bully-ball drives. That’s the goal. And to end his drives, Olynyk is great at both orbiting around drives to find above-the-break triples (basically all his triples come from there rather than the corners) and cutting behind the driver for little dump-off passes for layups. 

Dick, Barrett, and Quickley will keep defenders honest and spaced during those Barnes-Olynyk actions. Dick and Barrett were much better last year from the corners, both at or above 40 percent, while Quickley was better from deep above the break. One crucial action would be to have Quickley and Olynyk double screen for Barnes, perhaps even a Spain leak, to move the defense as much as possible at the point of attack while bringing as many defenders as possible out of the paint. Dick and Barrett would keep the defense stretched from the corners, while both are capable cutters and drivers out of the corners. The Raptors loved double screens, and Barnes was terrific at handling in such actions, particularly with a small-big combo screening for him. 

But this would be as much spacing as the Raptors can muster — and as much spacing as Barnes has ever seen in the NBA. Would the defense survive with Olynyk at center? Barnes playing with him to help out in the paint and on the glass is the best chance Toronto can muster. If it couldn’t stop opponents anyway, then the Raptors have a backup center problem. This lineup will let us know one way or the other.

The Defensive: Davion Mitchell — Ochai Agbaji — Scottie Barnes — Jonathan Mogbo — Jakob Poeltl (2023-24 net rating: N/A) 

Toronto desperately lacked point-of-attack defense last year. Someone who could simply dig into the ball and move an action away from the rim, force negative dribbles, perhaps even blow it up entirely with a turnover. Once OG Anunoby left, the Raptors spent the rest of the year pining for someone who could fill his role. 

That wasn’t the only defensive issue. The team lacked a wing defender, someone who could stop opponents in isolation. Anunoby! The team lacked rebounding. Size in help. More or less, everything. The team finished 26th in defense, and it was even worse after Barnes went down in the beginning of March. 

Which is why many of this lineup’s players were not on the team last year. Mitchell offers defense on the ball. I was considering leaning towards Jamal Shead, as I actually think he’ll be a better defender, but Mitchell has NBA experience, and you don’t want to rely on too many rookies. Especially in a defensive-oriented group. But it would be fantastic if Shead breaks into this group. He might.

Agbaji will also be able to defend the point of attack well for Toronto. He doesn’t have the size to play as a power forward, which Toronto often asked him to do last year. But shooting guard feels just right. (The jumper will have to come sound for this group to exist on offense. It probably wouldn’t be able to score even if Agbaji could shoot.) But he was one of Toronto’s only positive defenders after the injuries struck last season, and he contested shots well. He’s big enough to help in the backcourt. He’ll help on the glass on both ends and as a nail helper, too. 

Barnes and Poeltl were Toronto’s two best non-Anunoby defenders last year. (Perhaps even including Anunoby, considering his, umm, approach while still a Raptor.) They might not be good enough to support three poor defenders on their own (although, they might), but they are definitely good enough to be the cornerstone alongside other strong defenders. Poeltl can eat the pick and roll in drop, and Barnes can control the paint as the helper. Together, they’ll keep the paint on lockdown.

Mogbo was the final addition, and I played with a few other players here. But he is enormous, rebounded very, very well in college, and has one of the longest wingspans in the league. If he can move his feet in isolation and clean the glass, he would give Toronto the big isolation defense on the wing that no other player can provide. He can help force tons of turnovers, which this lineup will need in order to survive on offense. He should get the first crack. If he’s not ready, and the defense lapses when he’s on the floor, then Quickley, Barrett, or even Jamal Shead could fill the spot with the defensive group.

The Future: Immanuel Quickley — Ja’Kobe Walter — Gradey Dick — RJ Barrett — Scottie Barnes (2023-24 net rating: N/A) 

Across the entirety of the 2024-25 season, this group will either play fewer than 50 minutes — or more than 500 minutes. If it doesn’t work, shelve it immediately. It really won’t work if it doesn’t work. But if it does work, Toronto probably wants to lean into it and play these players together as much as possible. This is, after all, the future. 

Barnes is at his best with advantages happening around him at all times. Picture outer space. Not real outer space, which is pretty much empty and void of events at all times. No, the cartoon version of outer space. Asteroids and meteors blasting left and right, planets orbiting this way and that, spaceships — human and other — flying hither and yon, the sun blazing over it all. Most of us would be overwhelmed by the diversity of events, the sheer volume of stuff going on.

That’s where Barnes is at his best. He turns stuff into points. That’s his best skill on the court. The more actions, the more cuts and screens and movement and rotations, the better Barnes will be. He’ll process it all faster than anyone, find the best possible outcome, and outthink, out-athlete, and outperform the defense. This group would ask a lot of Barnes, playing hub at the elbows rather than more natural bigs, like Poeltl and Olynyk. But if he finds the mix there without any other bigs on the floor, he will thrive. 

Quickley, Walter, and Dick are the best movement shooters on the team. If they all grow into themselves as cutters and screeners and shooters, it’s possible no team in the league has three such movement shooters. (We’re talking very, very high-end, unlikely outcomes there.) Still, they will cause havoc just by running around out there. Barrett will blast into that open space as the most important non-Barnes driver, and he’ll get both his feet into the paint and then some. Barnes will of course turn that stuff into points. 

Look, it probably doesn’t work, at least not in 2024-25. Probably more like 2026 or even 2027. But the Raptors need to find out, and fast, how to get this ball rolling in turning Darko Rajakovic’s offensive system and principles (which are excellent) into a top-half offense. Or better. It has to start this upcoming season. If this lineup doesn’t work, that’s fine. Start it out in pieces. Get Quickley and Barnes playing more pick and roll together. Play Dick and Walter together some. But this fivesome is an important indicator of the future. Toronto needs to know if it will work right away, this season. 

The Scottie-Barnes-needs-to-rest: Immanuel Quickley — Gradey Dick — Bruce Brown — RJ Barrett — Jakob Poeltl (2023-24 net rating: plus-23.)

Once again, ignore the net rating here. The sample is a meaningless eight minutes. But some of the foursomes within the above group were excellent, too. They won their (admittedly 11 total) minutes without Barrett. They won their (admittedly 19 total) minutes without Brown. They won their (admittedly 20 total) minutes without either Brown or Barrett. But you add it all together, and you’re starting to look at a lineup that did well, in bits and pieces, last season. Perhaps it can replicate the same in larger minutes as a totality.

The Raptors are going to struggle on offense when Barnes is not in the game. So what’s the team’s best offensive punch that doesn’t involve Barnes? The Quickley-Poeltl pick and roll. Quickley needs lots of space created on screens to unlock his pull-up jumper, and to open up space for his pocket passing, and Poeltl provides that. Quickley was much more efficient with Poeltl screening for him than Barnes, for example.

The Raptors want shooting around that core ingredient, so Dick of course would be the best choice. He shot 42.7 percent from deep with Quickley playing alongside him and 33.3 percent when Quickley sat. Some of that is noise, but Dick did find much better shots with Toronto’s point guard of the future feeding him the ball and creating opportunities. Quickley found him in the corners, again and again, and Dick shot near 50 percent from that shorter distance.

Bruce Brown remains an excellent screener, and even though he didn’t show it last year due to injury and *circumstances* he is a strong guard finisher from the dunker spot. His cuts and finishes and screens would give texture to the lineup. He could chip in playing as a mover inside the arc, screening, running handoffs, cutting from the dunker spot, and just generally finding little nooks in which to insert himself. Then Barrett provides the rim pressure. (He’s in so many of these lineups! Toronto just needs another guy who can do what he does.) 

Bonus: The Transition: Immanuel Quickley — Jamal Shead — RJ Barrett — Scottie Barnes — Chris Boucher (2023-24 net rating: N/A)

Cramming guards — particularly point guards — onto the floor together always helps ramp up transition frequency. Now, the Raptors don’t have a ton of point guards. But Quickley’s presence boosted transition frequency for the Raptors more than any other player last year (and ranked 97th percentile overall), and adding another ballhandler in Shead can only help. He had an enormous assist rate in college, and even though he won’t run a ton of pick and rolls for Toronto this year to collect assists, he will likely make excellent reads in the open floor.

Barrett has long been one of the bigger drivers of transition frequency in the league, as he rebounds well defensively and just jets towards the other end when it’s time. And his ability to score in transition is almost unparalleled; he scored 1.31 points per possession, which ranked third in efficiency among the just 23 players to use 4.0 or more transition possessions per game. 

While Barnes himself isn’t the most efficient finisher in transition (yet), he has boosted team efficiency and frequency in the open court. His passing and tempo are invaluable. Furthermore, he’s spent a long time running in transition without a ton of shooting around him. With both him and Quickley on the floor, Toronto more or less had the best transition offense in basketball. 

And Boucher simply runs. Flat-out Forest Gumps his way up the floor. With any of Toronto’s other four players able to handle in the open court, and all of them drawing attention as shooters (to varying degrees), Boucher should be able to high-step his way behind the defense for dump-downs and dunks. Lobs. Easy finishes. Offensive rebounds, too. He and Shead, I imagine, would find an instant connect.

Boucher also helps kickstart transition a fair amount due to his event generation on the defensive end, collecting lots of blocks and steals. If the Raptors could clean the glass with this group (leaning on Barrett and Barnes to a great extent, there), it would take off the other way with alacrity. 

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