Emmy Experts Typing: What surprises and snubs might we get on nominations morning?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, less than a week out from nominations, we discuss possible shockers.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’re back for the final time in Phase 1 before Phase 2 becomes all about how many different ways we can say “Shōgun,” “The Bear” and “Baby Reindeer” are favored to win big in, respectively, the drama, comedy, and limited series categories. I’ll miss these lazy months of informed speculation when I could convince myself that Chloe Guidry and Archie Panjabi are legitimate contenders for Emmy nominations for their striking work on “Under the Bridge.” We made our “final” 2024 Emmy nominations predictions this week and what stood out to me in the aftermath is how little we had in the way of disagreement. It feels like there is a large amount of consensus around this year’s picks, with variations in those arguable final slots. In Best Drama Series, we’ve got the expected seven shows — led by “Shōgun,” “The Crown,” and “The Morning Show” — but differ on the Disney+ “blockbuster” pick: I’ve got “Loki” and you’ve got “Ahsoka.” In comedy, similarly, we’ve got the same seven shows — led by “The Bear” and “Hacks” — but you closed out with “Reservation Dogs” and I went with one of my left-field Hail Mary picks, “Girls5eva.” Limited Series? Same thing: Four of the five obvious picks but you’ve made the sharp call on “All the Light We Cannot See” while I pivoted to “Masters of the Air” over “Ripley.” What I’m getting at is we’re all kind of in the same conversation space, which feels right, because the season really moved forward without many surprise breakouts. And once “Shōgun” shifted to drama, it really solidified both the drama field and the limited series race. So I guess let’s start here: What kind of surprises do you think we might see on Wednesday and what are you secretly hoping for?

joyceeng: I am always hoping for chaos magic. Inside me are two wolves: It is, of course, nice to get things right, but I’d rather be surprised, pleasantly or not, by voters making their ~ own ~ choices than delivering the consensus picks. In all the series races, I think we’ll still get most of the obvious shows, so I hope they go totally left field for the ostensibly open slots. All four supporting categories in drama and limited feel unstable and I feel like we’ll get the most surprises there. You can play mix and match with everyone from “”Shōgun,” The Morning Show” and “The Crown” to fill out the drama ones. Meanwhile, I’m still over here debating if I should go “Feud”-less in limited supporting actress, but then who do I put in instead? And limited supporting actor is the weirdest race of all. None of them feel right? Or at least not really in serious consideration in most years (no shade). You’re going with some big snub calls — Janelle James, Meryl Streep, and I guess Imelda Staunton — but what other huge omission can you see happening? And you cannot say Robert Downey Jr.

SEE Experts slugfest: Our final 2024 Emmy nominations predictions

Christopher Rosen: I’ve almost got too many against-the-grain picks, but I feel like Streep, James, and even Staunton are being a tad over-predicted out of sheer laziness. Or maybe the obviousness of their presumed placement in the race is so evident that I’m just overthinking it all. So with that in mind, I’d flag two other big names who are maybe not as safe as many think. The first is Emma Stone, whom you’ve been leery of all season. “The Curse” is polarizing and if it were on Netflix or HBO, maybe that wouldn’t be an issue. But it’s polarizing and a Showtime series that streams on Paramount+ with Showtime or whatever its called and we know the academy has historically not been keen to embrace that platform’s content. If Stone missed in favor of Ella Purnell or whomever, would anyone really be surprised? The other big name who might be wobbly is Donald Glover — only because while it was one of my favorites and he’s an Emmy winner, I still remain unclear whether voters have watched and loved “Mr. & Mrs. Smith.” I think they have and they will — and Best Drama Actor isn’t really a deep category — but if Glover fell off, I can’t say I’d be totally stunned. I won’t mention Downey other than to mention his win potential feels awfully dependent on how “The Sympathizer” does overall. That’s a Phase 2 conversation, but what about this question: Have we actually underestimated “The Sympathizer”? In a weak field, with one of the biggest stars in the world in a showcase role(s), maybe it has been more widely seen by voters than we assume? Could it actually over-perform because it’s just actually really good?

joyceeng: Not to invoke “Station Eleven” for the millionth time, but that was another smaller acclaimed limited series in the HBO (Max) fam that not many had high hopes for on nominations morning. But it got seven bids, including writing, directing and acting, but not series. “The Sympathizer” could perform similarly. The only difference is that there was always tiny but passionate buzz for “Station Eleven,” but “The Sympathizer” has been, sadly, rather buzz-less as it aired. There was more buzz for RDJ’s multiple roles when the trailer dropped. I’m old enough to remember when Stone was being predicted for “Maniac.” That was a bust. Stone has been making some of, if not the most, interesting choices since her first Oscar win, but “The Curse” might just be too weird, too small and too out there for her to get in, even though I’m struggling to fill out that last spot. I’m not that concerned about Glover, but I am concerned about the abundance of “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” players I have in my guest lineups. Both categories will have a complete turnover with “Succession” and “The Last of Us” gone, so it’s really anyone’s guess as to who they’ll check off. #neverforget when they nominated Don Cheadle for walking around a museum for two minutes on “The Falcon and The Winter Soldier” three years ago in a similarly weak year.

SEE Emmy Experts Typing: Which dark horse contenders could surprise in drama?

Christopher Rosen: If not for “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” in the drama guest categories, then I don’t even know how to field a group of nominees. And yet, if they’re all snubbed, I guess I wouldn’t be surprised either. This is why Phase 1 is so fun! I’ll leave you with the last word on this cycle before the nominations: How will you remember this Emmy season?

joyceeng: I will remember this season for all the complaints about how weak drama was, how so many shows with high expectations underperformed, and how absolutely fire “Hacks” Season 3 was that we might soon be able to say Emmy winner Hannah Einbinder.

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