Don’t underestimate Brie Larson in Best Actress Emmy battle against Jodie Foster

Jodie Foster has long been the Emmy front-runner for Best Movie/Limited Actress for her performance in “True Detective: Night Country.” It’s a rare foray into television for the two-time Oscar winner. Will her prestige and the ratings success of her series help her cruise to victory? We mustn’t discount another Oscar winner who’s up against her, Brie Larson for “Lessons in Chemistry.”

As of this writing Foster leads our predictions with 71/20 odds based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users as of this writing. She’s currently backed by 10 out of the 16 Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, four of the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, 16 of our Top 24 Users and 19 of our All-Star Top 24.

But there are major divisions among our Emmy pundits. Judging from our forecasts, there are at least seven women who could take the gold, including Juno Temple (“Fargo”), Sofia Vergara (“Griselda”), Kate Winslet (“The Regime”), Jessica Lange (“The Great Lillian Hall”) and Uzo Aduba (“Painkiller”). But Larson appears to be the actress who poses the biggest threat. She’s backed by two Experts, three Editors and one Top User.

Larson has the advantage that “Lessons in Chemistry” ranks higher than “True Detective” in our odds for Best Limited Series, which suggests that its front-and-center leading lady might also have an edge. “Lessons” also did well for itself during the winter awards season, where it won the Directors Guild Award and was nominated by the American Cinema Editors, American Society of Cinematographers, Hollywood Makeup Artist and Hair Stylist Guild, Producers Guild and Writers Guild. That shows widespread industry support for the series, which is crucial because the Emmys are also decided by industry peers.

The “Lessons” star herself was nominated by the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and Screen Actors Guild Awards. She didn’t win any of those, but in each case she lost to Ali Wong (“Beef”), who competed for and won the Emmy last year. That could clear the way for a Larson victory at these Emmys. She’ll have to get past Foster, of course — this will be the first time the two women go head-to-head — but the race is a lot closer than you might think.

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