The impact of President Biden staying in the race on Southern California House races

Amid growing Democratic concerns over Biden’s fitness for a second term, many are overlooking a critical consequence of Biden staying on the ticket: the potential impact on Democrats in competitive House races, particularly in Southern California.

Put another way, while the media tends to focus on the impact of Biden’s performance on the presidential election, Biden’s refusal to step aside extends far beyond whether or not he can beat Donald Trump in November.

In that same vein, the intense focus on Biden’s cognitive ability is a tremendous gift to Republicans, as it erodes Democrats’ ability to refocus the election on the actual issues. 

Instead of talking about abortion access, immigration, the economy, and healthcare, Democrats must now spend an inordinate amount of time on whether the leader of their party is even able to serve another four years.

This will be an acute issue in Southern California, where a handful of competitive seats are more likely to swing Republican if worries over Biden’s mental and physical abilities continue dominating the conversation.

As I wrote in these pages last July, the toss up districts in Southern California have the potential to determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the House of Representatives. 

Prior to Biden’s disastrous debate performance, both parties had identified the races where they believed they had a chance to flip a seat. But with turmoil atop the Democratic ticket, it is legitimate to ask whether Republicans will do considerably better in 2024. 

Indeed, Republicans had long eyed California’s 47th and 49th districts as seats the GOP could potentially flip, but with Democrats consumed over whether or not to replace Biden, GOP confidence will surely grow. 

In the 47th district, former Rep. Katie Porter’s slim victory over Republican Scott Baugh in 2022 (52% to 48%) came after Porter outspent Baugh by nearly 10 times: Porter’s $28 million to just $3 million for Baugh.

Now, Baugh is back in the race, competing against Democrat State Senator Dave Min – who has his own personal issues.

Where Baugh can count on deep pockets and endorsements from establishment Republicans such as former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, donor fatigue among Democrats in the wake of the debate will make it extremely challenging for Min to run a formidable race, with less than half a million dollars on hand, as I noted here last week.

Min isn’t the only Democrat who will struggle to raise money amid the fallout from the debate. As the New York Times reported, big Democratic donors are silently turning on the president and are shutting their wallets in an attempt to force a change. 

The Biden campaign can likely survive a small donor revolt, but they will be unable to funnel donations to down ballot candidates where the money is needed.

In the 49th district, Democratic incumbent Rep. Mike Levin faces a unique problem. 

While it is true that polling from early June – before the debate – showed Levin with a 10-point (50% to 40%) lead over GOP challenger Matt Gunderson, Levin was dependent on Biden to win in 2022. 

It is highly unlikely Levin will be able – or willing – to count on the same support in November. And, if Gunderson can force Levin – who has thus far been silent on Biden’s fitness – to take a public stance, it could cause problems for an incumbent so closely tied to the president. 

To be sure, even if Biden does accept that he may not be the best candidate to beat Donald Trump and withdraw, that would not be the end of Democrats’ headaches.

Rather, were that to happen, Democrats would find themselves facing another serious problem. 

The smoothest way to replace Biden would, of course, be Vice President Kamala Harris. However, her dismal national approval rating – 38% per RealClearPolitics average – makes it highly unlikely that she would provide a boost to vulnerable House candidates. 

In fact, Harris’ 38% approval is even lower than Biden’s (40%) and even Donald Trump’s (42%), making her less than ideal atop the ticket. 

Within her home state, Harris’ ratings are not much better. Less than 4-in-10 (37%) of California voters said they would be “very enthusiastic” (16%) or “somewhat enthusiastic” (21%) if Harris replaced Biden, per a Berkeley Institute of Government Studies poll.

Conversely, roughly 6-in-10 California voters said they would be “not too enthusiastic” (18%) or “not enthusiastic at all” (41%) were that to happen. And while that poll was conducted last February, it is unlikely that statewide attitudes towards Harris have moved drastically in her favor.

Yet, if Biden released his delegates and Democrats had an open convention, the fratricide that would ensue during the nominating process may be even worse than if the party left Biden or arranged for Harris to be the nominee. 

Given the Democratic Party’s obsession with identity politics, and tensions already running high over the war in Israel and now Biden’s age, the chaos of an open or brokered convention may exceed 1968, when the entire country watched police and protestors engage in open street fights.

For their part, prominent Democrats unaffiliated with the Biden campaign have signaled that they recognize the potentially disastrous down ballot impact of Biden remaining in the race.

And former President Barack Obama reportedly consulted with megadonor and actor George Clooney before the latter published a brutal opinion column in the New York Times calling on Biden to step aside for the sake of the party.

Ultimately, given the time between now and November, Biden’s refusal to step aside puts Democrats in an unprecedented bind, and now must choose their least bad option. 

With no truly viable replacement, whoever emerged from an open convention would almost certainly alienate a significant number of both Democrats and independents.

At the same time, the impact of Biden staying in the race could very well cost Democrats the White House along with both chambers of Congress.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.