Democrats back off Biden after Trump shooting, but clock still ticking
For Democrats, the phrase of the day was “proceed with caution.”
A day after a gunman attempted to assassinate former President Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, and after the Democratic Party continued to debate whether or not President Biden should withdraw from the presidential election, the president's allies and other party operatives were left quietly wondering how the latest plot twist in the campaign would ultimately play out.
For the time being, out of respect for Trump on the heels of the tragic events, Biden has paused any political activity, taking down even political advertising. But a flurry of questions still remained for Democrats: Would the moment give Biden a reprieve from the calls to withdraw? Would the image of Trump’s clenched fist, blood dripping down his face, portray him in a new light? And what would it all mean for Democrats as the Republican National Convention kicks off on Monday?
“There are more questions than answers right now,” one top Democratic strategist and a close Biden ally acknowledged. “I don’t think anyone knows how this will turn out, even this week. There are so many unknowns.”
Above all, the debate around Biden’s age and mental acuity was on hold, according to more than a dozen Democratic sources who requested anonymity to speak openly about a sensitive topic, which no one wanted to touch in the hours following the shooting.
While the conversation around whether or not Biden should withdraw dominated the headlines and created a seemingly endless news cycle over the past two weeks, Democrats from lawmakers to donors quickly fell silent on the issue.
“This is not the time,” one Democratic donor, who has expressed reservations about Biden in recent days, said. “That’s not to say it won’t come back in a few days or next week. But it would be incredibly insensitive to have the debate on Biden right now.”
“We all need to take a breath and see what happens,” the donor added.
A second Democratic strategist predicted that the focus on Saturday's tragic events would "slow the public noise but I don't think it slows the private conversations.
"I've seen enough data to show my guy trailing. And the state-by-state numbers are really rough."
Political observers said it will become much harder for Democrats to continue to mount pressure on Biden to drop out of the race.
“The clock is ticking and right now many Democrats won’t focus on this as the nation is consumed with the assassination attempt,” said Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. “Some will believe destabilizing the ticket will be too hard to do.”
“That said, the problems won’t go away for Biden and can get worse, at a moment when Trump emerges from this horrific act stronger than ever,” Zelizer added.
Biden’s case to stay in the race was also bolstered Sunday by three national polls that showed he has lost little ground to Trump since his woeful debate performance late last month. In all three of the polls — from Fox News, NBC News and CBS News — Trump is up by 1 or 2 points nationally. However, the picture could change following the attempt on Trump’s life.
While the Biden campaign was effectively paused for the time being, longtime Republican strategist Susan Del Percio — who does not support Trump — predicted that the story wouldn’t continue to be front and center for very long.
For starters, the conversation would pivot because news of Trump’s running mate selection is coming this week, and the start of the convention may put Republicans back in campaign mode.
Del Percio predicted that it would be difficult for Trump and other Republicans to quickly pivot back to attacking Biden, which would allow Democrats to respond in kind.
“The question I wonder about is, what Republicans will do and say because Democrats will be more careful and they’re way more responsible with their words,” she said.
“I can’t imagine day one of the convention happening without fiery and ugly words about Joe Biden,” she added. “That allows for a response from the Biden campaign. That’s what’s going to start the reengagement frankly.”
Since the assassination attempt, Biden has sought to be the consoler in chief, even with Trump, his longtime rival, whom he spoke with on Saturday night. The White House has sought to portray Biden accordingly, releasing photos of Biden receiving a briefing inside the Situation Room from Homeland Security and law enforcement officials. On Sunday evening, he will also deliver a rare address to the nation from the Oval Office.
The president will also be sitting down Monday with NBC’s Lester Holt, in an interview that was supposed to be centered on the calls for his withdrawal from the race. But now, it is expected to be largely centered on the tragedy around Trump.
One strategist said in the short term, while campaigning is sidelined, it’s beneficial to Biden to be seen as the one reassuring the American public while temporarily setting aside differences with Trump.
“It helps Biden’s argument," the strategist said. “He represents stability. He’s managing a crisis. And in a way he’s answering the argument about his mental acuity.”
“And that creates a contrast with Trump,” the strategist added. “You can’t count on Trump to be stable for so long. And when Trump starts Trumping, it’s game on."