Voting for change

IN what is regarded as the biggest election year in history, with voters in over 70 countries casting the ballot in 2024, some common features have emerged in the polls that have taken place. In countries both in the West and East, the electorate’s yearning for change has been evident. So has strong anti-incumbency sentiment that has dealt heavy blows to ruling parties. Driving this are fraught economic conditions and the cost-of-living crisis sweeping the world. Discontent in a landscape of economic inequality has motivated voters to punish incumbents. Another common aspect is the anti-establishment vote, with people holding establishment leaders responsible for the unedifying state of affairs in their country.

Many countries that have held elections are deeply polarised and whose politics has become increasingly fractured and volatile. The political system is seen not to deliver at a time of heightened public expectations, magnified by the social media. In several cases, electoral mandates have not matched the popular vote, with the first-past-the-post system disproportionately rewarding the election winner and obscuring underlying political realities. There are, of course, many differences among these countries reflecting their specific circumstances and political trajectories. The desire for change, for example, has led to different outcomes in different countries but the common trends hold even if their political expressions vary.

The election in France has been a political roller coaster, while exhibiting several common features described above. Buoyed by its strong showing in the European Parliament elections, Marine Le Pen’s far right party swept the first round of the French poll. The incumbent President Emmanuel Macron’s party came third in an atmosphere of popular disenchantment. Calling a snap poll seemed to backfire as fears grew of the country’s throwback to the time of the Vichy regime when France was ruled by the far right during the Second World War. Those fears galvanised voters who in the run-off election produced an outcome that surprised pollsters. A newly assembled left-wing alliance and Macron’s centrist party forged expedient, tactical arrangements to block the victory of Le Pen’s National Rally party. The result put the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire in first place, Macron’s party second and NR third. However, the fractured vote produced a hung parliament, with no party winning a majority. This has left France facing a prolonged period of political instability, even paralysis. The Economist warned of a crisis of governability. The far right’s advance has been halted for now. But the prospect of turmoil in a polarised and economically troubled country could well create the conditions for the far right’s comeback.

In Iran, voters’ longing for change enabled the election of the first reformist president in over 20 years. Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory over a hard-line rival in the run-off poll marked a dramatic break with the past as voters turned out to support a man who pledged change in his country’s domestic and foreign policies. Pezeshkian promised to re-engage with the West and resume the nuclear dialogue in order to secure an easing of the sanctions that have inflicted so much hardship on the Iranian people. He also promised to relax social restrictions imposed by previous hard-line governments, indicating there may be no return to the repressive policies of the past.

Anti-incumbency sentiment and economic hardship have been factors in shaping voters’ choices.

While Pezeshkian’s electoral victory was owed to enthusiastic voters it was also because he was allowed to run by the political/ religious establishment, which had disqualified reformist candidates in the past and seen its legitimacy erode over the years as the economy deteriorated. Its decision was driven by fear of the return of ultra conservatives represented, among others, by the Paydari, a hard-line political group, whose members are called “super revolutionaries” in Iran. It supported Pezeshkian’s rival Saeed Jalili. The group opposes in principle any opening to the West and has hard-line views on other issues. It was rumoured that the Paydari, who backed Jalili, had their own plans on the future leadership, which would have influenced succession to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. These power dynamics created an enabling environment for the Iranian electorate to vote for change in the election.

The Indian election also saw anti-incumbency sentiment robbing Narendra Modi’s BJP of a majority. Although he was re-elected prime minister, his use of the Hindutva card as well as claims he had delivered a better economic future to India’s underprivileged were rejected by voters, as were his high-handed ruling methods. The Congress party-led opposition alliance did much better than pollsters predicted and managed to capitalise on anti-incumbency dissatisfaction, especially with soaring inflation and rising unemployment. Like elections in other countries, voters in economic distress made their disenchantment with the status quo evident by denying the BJP a majority and forcing it to rely on allies to stay in power. The BJP still got 240 seats but with just 36 per cent of the popular vote. The polarisation that India has seen in the past decade looks set to continue.

Elections in Britain saw a stronger anti-incumbency wave with the Labour Party inflicting a crushing defeat on the Conservative Party, in its worst-ever electoral performance. The Tory party’s inept and scandal-ridden 14 years in power convinced voters it was time for a change especially as its economic management at a time of austerity evoked widespread public anger as it left people much worse off. Sweeping cuts in public services also deepened public discontent. Brexit divided the country and to some extent the vote against the Tories also reflected a backlash against a decision many Britons disagreed with. The vote was motivated more by rage at the Tories than enthusiasm for Labour, which also saw its Muslim support dwindle over its Gaza stance. It lost four seats to pro-Palestinian independents. The Conservative Party vote was eroded by the far right represented by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, which polled 14pc of the popular vote. The Liberal Democrats trailed behind by polling only 12pc but taking 60 seats to just four won by Reform. This indicated how fragmented politics had become.

The interplay between anti-incumbency sentiment, popular desire for change, public frustration with deteriorating economic conditions and a fractured political system has been a common thread in elections this year in different countries. This suggests volatile electorates ahead especially as public disenchantment persists with their economic and political exclusion.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.

Published in Dawn, July 15th, 2024