Revealed: Presidential swing states of Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania are changing fast

Growth in Asian, Black and Hispanic communities is transforming cities and suburban counties, especially in red states such as Florida, Indiana and Texas, according to a new Stateline analysis. The presidential swing states of Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania also were among the fastest-changing states.

Nationally, the share of the non-white population grew in 47 states between mid-2020 and mid-2023, according to the analysis of U.S. Census Bureau estimates released in June.

Nevada had the largest change, with the non-white population — mostly Hispanic — growing 2.3 percentage points to 54.3% of the population. Growth in the number of Black residents propelled Georgia to a near non-white majority, up about 1 point to 49.9% of state population, amid continuing Black migration that helped turn the state’s 2020 vote Democratic for president and U.S. Senate.

Hispanic growth was the dominant factor across states, in blue and red counties and in rural and urban areas, according to the Stateline analysis. Growth in the Hispanic population is coming partly from immigration but mostly from higher birth rates, the Census Bureau said in a release.

Only three states — Montana, South Carolina and Tennessee — and the District of Columbia have seen their white population share grow since 2020.

The increase in Hispanic and Black residents — and where it’s happening — could sway outcomes in the 2024 presidential race and local and state races, although these groups’ political allegiances have shifted recently. Black voters have long been considered among Democrats’ most enthusiastic supporters, but their support has declined somewhat. And Republicans are making increasing inroads among Hispanic voters.

Swing states see newcomers as Americans move from blue to red counties

Many of the largest changes were driven by Black and Asian migration to cities and suburbs in job-rich red states. The economy is going gangbusters by nearly every national metric, and the availability of jobs outside major cities has become a significant magnet.

That includes Indiana’s Marion County, home of Indianapolis, and Kaufman County, Texas, a Dallas suburb, where Black population growth helped create new non-white majorities as of mid-2023. In Kaufman County, the Black population grew 6 percentage points to 23% and the Hispanic population grew 3 points to 28%. Kaufman County elected its first African American district judge in 2020.

“We do have jobs here, and all those counties are growing dramatically,” said Lloyd Potter, Texas’ state demographer. Asian, Black and Hispanic residents are moving to suburbs from the city of Dallas, he said, and from California and New York state. Meanwhile, local white populations are aging and diminishing, with more deaths and fewer births.

“These are some of the biggest and most significantly growing urban areas in the country, and [the new census data] indicates tremendous diversification in the population. It’s been occurring for some time, but it really seems to have accelerated over the last five years or so,” Potter said.

New groceries, same politics

Kaufman County’s growing Black community remains a minority in a county that voted two-thirds Republican for president in 2020 and governor in 2022. The county commission held hearings on moving a Confederate memorial statue away from the entrance of the county courthouse in 2021, but ultimately decided not to act.

“It’s very red here. It’s super red,” said James Henderson, a longtime resident of the county who favored moving the statue. He said he sees more African Americans like himself moving to Kaufman County cities such as Forney and working remotely for Dallas-based companies. There also are more African immigrants, he said.

Whether increased racial diversity will lead to political change is an open question. Black migration to the Atlanta area in Georgia had an effect on elections in 2018 and possibly 2020, but Republicans remain firmly in charge of state governments there and in Texas.

More Hispanic families are reaching the middle class

The younger population is growing more diverse, said demographer William Frey of the left-leaning Brookings Institution think tank. But the older population, which is growing as baby boomers age and is the most likely to vote, is still mostly white, he said.

Asian growth in Collin County, another Dallas suburb, and Hispanic growth in Florida’s Duval County (home of Jacksonville) also helped turn those large counties majority non-white since 2020.

Many of the new Collin County residents are Telugu-speaking tech workers from southern India who have found an economic niche in remote work for Dallas firms, said Farhad Wadia, president of the FunAsia branded radio stations in the area. Their presence is bringing subtle changes to the community, he noted.

New transplants often hold elaborate Hindu housewarming ceremonies that include boiling milk to overflowing to signify prosperity. Stores cater to their tastes with tangy tamarind-based curries and sun-dried peppers.

“If you go into Costco here you will think you are in South India,” Wadia said. “A lot of them come from California, where they could sell their 1,000-square-foot house for a million dollars and get more bang for the buck here.”

Growing rural diversity

Of the 16 counties that turned majority non-white between 2020 and 2023, five were in Texas. Most of the 16 counties voted Republican in 2020.

They included two counties each in California (Napa and Yuba counties, both near Sacramento) and New Mexico (rural Quay and Roosevelt counties), and one each in Alabama (rural Conecuh County), Kansas (rural Stanton County), Mississippi (Lowndes County, along the Alabama border), New Jersey (suburban Somerset County) and South Carolina (Florence County, near Myrtle Beach).

In Georgia, Atlanta suburb Henry County had the largest shift of any county outside Texas, with Black population growth fueling a 7-point increase in the non-white population to 69%. The county was already majority-Black in 2020; retired basketball star Shaquille O’Neal, who bought a home in the county in 2016, helps the local sheriff’s office with community relations and recently hosted a summer youth sports camp.

The number of job openings has declined sharply in every state

Hispanic growth also lifted the non-white population share in the presidential swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In Texas’ Liberty County, where Hispanic growth helped drive a new non-white majority of 52% — up 7 points since 2020 — schools are bursting with new Hispanic students, said Stephen McCanless, superintendent of the Cleveland Independent School District in Liberty County.

The district, where about 88% of students are Hispanic, grew from about 10,000 to 12,000 students in the past school year and could reach 14,000 next year, he said.

The district has spent more than $17 million on portable classrooms since growth started in 2015, including $2 million in the past year, as bond issues to build more schools have been voted down.

“Tough decisions had to be made. I cut $7 million out of the budget in order to start the [next] school year without dipping into the fund balance too much,” McCanless said.

Stateline is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Stateline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Scott S. Greenberger for questions: info@stateline.org. Follow Stateline on Facebook and X.