Will the Shooting Clinch the Election for Trump?
The timing of this nightmarish event was fortuitous for Republicans and creates new dilemmas for Democrats already divided over Biden’s candidacy.
The attempt on Donald Trump’s life in Pennsylvania was not an unprecedented event, unfortunately: Four sitting presidents have been murdered and at least four others attacked, as well as three presidential candidates who were shot prior to Trump, one of whom, Robert F. Kennedy, was killed.
What makes this moment unique, however, was its timing. Normally such incidents create a meaningful pause in political combat, as politicians and activists join hands across partisan and ideological barricades in deploring violence, recommitting to peaceful democratic discourse, and pledging to reduce polarizing and dehumanizing rhetoric. There has been some of that ritual exercise in the hours since shots rang out at a Trump rally, mostly from Democrats (including Trump’s sworn enemy President Biden). But we simply don’t have time in this overheated presidential contest for calm and detached reflection.
Most obviously, the assassination attempt occurred almost literally on the eve of the Republican National Convention, planned for months as a rousing celebration of Trump’s comeback from the political abyss of January 6, 2021. The gunshots also interrupted a Democratic Party crisis over Biden’s fitness for the rest of the campaign and for a second term as president. How both parties handle the days just ahead will not only have a large bearing on the outcome of this fateful election but on how a divided country copes with the aftermath.
It is almost impossible to overstate how well Trump’s survival of an assassination attempt meshes with his campaign’s message as it reaches peak volume during the convention. During the past 20 months, Trump has relentlessly campaigned as an unbreakable hero who was cheated of a second term in 2020 and then persecuted by Democrats and “deep state” foes in Congress, the White House, and federal and state agencies waging “lawfare.” Now someone (perhaps inspired by Trump’s foes, Republicans are not bashful to suggest) has tried to kill him with actual bullets, and as blood ran down his face, he proclaimed for all the world to see his defiant strength.
When Trump makes his first appearance in Milwaukee (perhaps as early as Monday evening, when rumor has it he may announce his choice of running mate and may also be formally nominated), he will be greeted as an all-conquering hero, likely by delegates waving signs depicting his fist-pumping, blood-splattered resurrection from beneath the podium in Pennsylvania with an American flag in the background. The record 22-minute greeting accorded Robert F. Kennedy at the 1964 Democratic convention (much of it a tribute to his assassinated brother) could fall by the wayside. More generally, Republicans will have four full days with media attention only enhanced by the assassination attempt to proclaim their warrior-king’s indomitability in contrast–explicitly or implicitly stated–to the widely questioned vigor of Biden and his wavering party.
While we don’t know exactly how far the GOP will go to take partisan advantage of this latest development, it is very clear Republicans will use it to retroactively discredit and preemptively undermine Democratic criticisms of Trump. Even with the motives of the shooter entirely unknown, there was an almost immediate chorus of MAGA voices (including two of the four top veep aspirants, senators J.D. Vance and Tim Scott) accusing Democrats of inciting the assassination attempt by criticisms of Trump as a “threat to democracy” or as a proto-authoritarian. According to constitutional law, truth is an absolute defense against allegations of slander against a public figure, and there is enormous evidence that Trump is indeed the dangerous man so many people fear. But as Americans long for a less catastrophic political environment in the wake of the Pennsylvania shooting, the court of public opinion may be swayed by claims that Democrats have gone dangerously overboard in painting devil-horns on the former president.
This line of argument creates a terrible dilemma for Democrats. All along, from the very beginning of the 2024 campaign, the Biden strategy has been to convert the election from a simple referendum on his unpopular administration into a stark choice between candidates via reminders of every terrible thing Trump has done and now plans to do even more emphatically in a second term. One reason Biden’s June 27 debate performance was so dispiriting to Democrats is that he lost a unique opportunity to cast a pitiless spotlight on Trump and instead focused it right back on his own weaknesses, particularly concerns about his age and cognitive faculties that many of his own supporters shared. Biden’s campaign has made it abundantly clear that his revival from that “bad night” depends on a resharpened set of contrasts with his opponent and constant reminders of the consequences of the election. Now the president himself has called for a lowering of political temperatures in an address to the nation from the Oval Office. How quickly can Democrats resume the savaging of their opponent as he basks in the glow of near martyrdom? That’s a difficult question made no easier by their own internal differences over the very identity of their nominee. Perhaps they will unify around Biden in the wake of this latest crisis, but that doesn’t mean Biden’s standing in the electorate will improve.
Many Republicans are already saying the bullets that nearly killed Donald Trump have clinched his return to the White House. That remains to be seen; this is an election cycle that has already surprised us more than once. Political observers will be watching closely to see if the customary “convention bounce” in the polls Trump can expect turns into something more momentous. But for now, the events at that Trump rally in Pennsylvania make this contest more bonkers than ever. Democrats are off-balance again, and MAGA folk have renewed reason to believe their improbably durable champion cannot lose.