Traditionally Democrat States Now in Play as Trump Widens Lead Over Biden

With incumbent President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, Democrats are worrying that comfortably blue states may now be battlegrounds. The New York Times reported on Friday that Democratic Party operatives now classify Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia — all of which Biden won in 2020 — as swing states.

“While presidential elections often produce a silly season of speculation about unlikely states flipping allegiances, seasoned Democratic operatives say there are legitimate concerns, even as the Biden campaign points to its overwhelming advantage in offices, staff and money across those states,” NYT reported. Former Obama campaign strategist David Axelrod said that the possibility of Trump winning once-reliably blue states “has to be taken seriously.”

While there are “different dynamics” in each of the four new battleground states, including demographic shifts, NYT observed, “But consistent across all four states are widespread fears about Mr. Biden’s age, unhappiness with inflation and electorates that are more closely divided than many national observers realize, according to interviews with local Democratic officials and strategists.”

Minnesota

Governor Tim Walz (D) said that the North Star state was “in play” with Biden at the top of the ticket. “There is still work that still needs to be done to shore up the party, especially around some of the non-committed votes,” he warned. According to NYT, Biden’s campaign has opened numerous offices in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

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This week, the Cook Political Report changed Minnesota’s status from “likely” going to Biden to only leaning in his direction. Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight places Biden less than a point-and-a-half ahead of Trump (42.2% against 40.8%), while Emerson College polling found an even split (45% to 45%) in a head-to-head contest between the two, but a Trump victory (42% to 41%) when Independent and third-party candidates were brought into play.

New Hampshire

“The debate really woke people up. It scared them,” New Hampshire State Representative Peter Leishman (D) told NYT. “There was already a feeling from so many people here that maybe Biden was a little too old, even back in the primary.”

The Cook Political Report also downgraded New Hampshire from a “likely” Biden win to merely leaning in his direction. A survey late last month from St. Anselm College found that Trump has edged ahead of Biden by two points (44% to 42%). According to New Hampshire Institute of Politics executive director Neil Levesque, Biden has less support from his own party than Trump does from his, and more Democrats are going Independent than Republicans. Previously, Biden held a double-digit lead over Trump in the Granite State, where voters have not elected a Republican president since before the year 2000. More Biden campaign offices have also been opened in New Hampshire.

New Mexico

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) told Biden last week that he might lose in her state. “Biden can win New Mexico, but all of the data I’m seeing shows that his campaign needs to make their case to New Mexicans to ensure that happens,” agreed Brad Elkins, the campaign manager for Senator Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.). “Interviews with a dozen Democratic and independent voters in Albuquerque, a solidly blue city, showed a snapshot of the enthusiasm problem facing Mr. Biden,” reported NYT. “Most said they were rooting for a change at the top of the Democratic ticket, planned to vote for a third-party candidate[,] or said they might simply stay home in November.”

One poll conducted in New Mexico last month placed Trump only two points behind Biden (47% for the former, 49% for the latter) in a head-to-head contest and Trump only one point behind Biden (42% for the former, 43% for the latter) in a race with Independent and third-party candidates included.

Virginia

Mayor Levar Stoney of Richmond indicated to NYT that Old Dominion’s blue streak should not be considered a sure thing. “As much as we want this to be a blue state, this is a deep purple state, and you have to give it some attention. You can’t take it for granted,” he warned Biden. The Biden campaign has reportedly opened at least a dozen offices in Virginia.

A survey published this week found that Trump is trailing Biden in Virginia by only three points (44% for the former, 47% for the latter).

So What?

Ever since his worse-than-lackluster debate performance at the end of June, Biden has faced growing fear and dissent among Democratic Party ranks, with some calling outright for the president to discontinue his reelection campaign and let another Democrat challenge Trump. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has even encouraged Democrats in vulnerable districts to openly ask the president to stand down. One of the chief fears for Democrats is the effect Biden’s continued candidacy will have down the ballot, with the potential for Democrats to lose their barely-there majority in the Senate and be wiped out even further in the House.

With Biden falling behind currently in standard swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, Democratic Party operatives told NYT that an “expanding battleground map could force [Biden’s] campaign to divert resources away” from standard swing state contests. “Some party leaders have begun to worry that Mr. Biden could soon find himself playing defense even in a Democratic bastion like New York, where no Republican presidential candidate has won since Ronald Reagan,” NYT warned.

Although some big-name Democrats have promoted party unity and urged others to embrace Biden — gaffes, stammers, brain freezes, and all — blue and Independent voters are less certain about rallying behind the 81-year-old career politician, making party operatives’ concerns about even more states becoming battlegrounds look very real.

LifeNews Note: S.A. McCarthy serves as a news writer at The Washington Stand.

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