Donald Trump and the gathering darkness threatening US politics

In America, we resolve our differences at the ballot box … not with bullets. The power to change America should always rest in the hands of the people, not in the hands of a would-be assassin.

So said the US president, Joe Biden, in an Oval Office address to the nation the day after the attempted assassination of his rival in November’s presidential election.

The shockwaves of Trump surviving an effort to kill him at a campaign event in Pennsylvania on July 13 are still being felt across the United States and around the world. The FBI stated it has picked up on increasing levels of violent political rhetoric being expressed in the aftermath of the assassination attempt.

And, contrary to Biden’s insistence that there is “no place in America for this kind of violence”, Katie Stallard, a non-resident global fellow at the Wilson Centre in Washington DC, believes that: “The attack on Donald Trump was shocking, but it wasn’t unprecedented by American standards, and it wasn’t entirely unforeseeable.”

The Trump assassination attempt follows a disturbing trend in America of extremists embarking on violent plots to silence their perceived opponents.

Researchers Professor Pete Simi of Chapman University, and Seamus Hughes, University of Nebraska, have examined threats against political candidates between 2013 and 2023. They found that “over the past 10 years, more than 500 individuals have been arrested for threatening public officials. And the trendline is shooting up.”

Over the past three years alone, America has witnessed a surge in violence linked to a darkening political landscape that has seen combative and toxic discourse infect its body politic.

The Capitol riots in January 2021 were preceded by a speech from the then president, Donald Trump, where he told an assembled crowd the November 2020 presidential election had been “stolen”. Following this address thousands of the president’s supporters marched on the Capitol building.

The ensuing mayhem resulted in a violent riot and the deaths of five people, including a police officer.

In October 2022, Paul Pelosi, the husband of the then House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, was attacked in his home and bludgeoned with a hammer by far-right conspiracy theorist David DePape. DePape’s plan was to find Pelosi herself, hold her hostage, and “break her kneecaps”. Donald Trump would later mock Mr Pelosi at a Republican campaign event.

In September 2023, Trump sparked fury with a social media post criticising former chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Mark Milley. On “Truth Social” the former president, angered by revelations that Milley had taken a phone call with Chinese officials after the January 6 2021 riots, wrote: “This is an act so egregious that, in times gone by, the punishment would have been DEATH!”

Guns and angry folks

Polling conducted by Professor Robert A. Pape from the University of Chicago, sheds new light on the worrying positions some Americans have towards the utility of political violence. This survey of over 2,000 people found that 10% of respondents viewed the use of force as “justified to prevent Donald Trump from becoming president”. This equates to 26 million adults if the findings are applied to the whole population.

Within this mix of increasingly dangerous political rhetoric and violence is America’s “guns epidemic”. According to the FBI, the weapon used by the would-be assassin at the Trump campaign rally, Thomas Matthew Crooks, was an AR-style rifle purchased by his father.

Pape’s survey also found that 7% of respondents supported the use of force “to restore Donald Trump to the presidency”. Of this group, which equates to 18 million adults, around 45% own guns, 40% think the people involved in the Capitol attack were “patriots”, while 10% were either militia members or knew someone who was a militia member.

The reaction to the Trump assassination attempt by some of his most prominent congressional supporters has bordered on the reckless. Ohio Senator J.D. Vance – a potential vice presidential nominee – stated that Joe Biden bore responsibility for the attack. He asserted that the president’s campaign speeches had “led directly” to what transpired in Pennsylvania.

Other GOP elected officials have gone further with wild and dangerous rhetoric. Georgia congressman Mike Collins posted on X that “Joe Biden sent the orders” and called for the Republican district attorney in Butler County, where the assassination attempt took place, to “immediately file charges against Joseph R. Biden for inciting an assassination”.

There is heightened concern as the summer of political conventions by both Republican and Democratic parties get underway. Jacob Ware, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, has stated that these large gatherings “boast the largest collections of party members and leaders throughout the entire election cycle and could therefore attract individuals or groups with a vendetta”.

Read more: Trump tones down his rhetoric as he prepares for 'coronation' at Republican National Convention

Many across the United States, and beyond its shores, will hope the Trump assassination attempt will lead to tempered introspection and reasoned political debate. But others justifiably fear the event could serve as a catalyst for deeper polarisation and further acts of violence.

Richard Hargy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.