Why overcrowded prisons are more dangerous than releasing prisoners early

Lengthy confinement within locked, poorly maintained and overcrowded cells triggers boredom and restlessness, and contributes to violent incidents.

Last week, the government made its first move to address the overcrowding crisis in UK prisons. The justice secretary, Shabana Mahmood, announced a plan to release some prisoners after they have served 40% of their custodial sentence, rather than the current 50%.

The new policy will also include plans to safely manage those released in the community, and people serving sentences for violent, sex-related or domestic abuse crimes will be excluded.

Mahmood said this temporary emergency measure is necessary to pull the justice system back from the brink of total collapse. The UK’s prisons have become chronically overcrowded over the past 40 years, making them dangerous for prisoners and prison staff, and putting more pressure on the criminal justice system.

Previous governments have failed in their attempts to reduce overcrowding. Recent measures to build more prisons and use police cells as overspill sites of detention did not reduce overcrowding.

The decision to release some prisoners early shows that imprisonment doesn’t have to be the default – it is a political choice.

One criticism of this approach is that releasing prisoners early will jeopardise public safety. But evidence from other countries shows this is not necessarily the case. California reduced its prison population size by some tens of thousands, by moving prisoners to county jails and probation programmes, some early. A public health study found that this had no effect on the host city’s level of violent crime.

Reducing overcrowding can decrease violence and improve health and safety both within and outside prisons. Scandinavian countries design imprisonment to be more humane, rehabilitative and inclusive, empowering individuals to reintegrate into society and lead fulfilling lives post-release. Prison institutions in these countries are more stable, and their reconviction rates are comparatively lower than in other countries, including the UK.

Overcrowding, on the other hand, imposes degrading living and working conditions on prisoners and prison officers. In England and Wales, there are currently four prisoners per staff member (compared to the European average of two). Staffing cuts from 2012-16 continue to affect prisons today.

Lengthy confinement within locked, poorly maintained and overcrowded cells triggers boredom and restlessness, and contributes to violent incidents. In a recent address at the Prison Officers’ Association Annual Conference, I highlighted the 28% increase in self-inflicted deaths and 61% rise in self-harm incidents between 2013 and 2023. There has been a 37% surge in assaults among prisoners and a 223% increase in assaults against prison officers over the same period.

Access to rehabilitation

Overcrowding also makes it difficult or impossible to provide rehabilitative and community services in prisons.

A recent report by the HM Inspectorate of Prisons shows that four in ten prisoners spent nearly all day in their cells without proper access to education, employment and sports activities. As a result, some prisoners turned to illicit drugs to manage the isolation and boredom induced by the long periods of being locked behind cell doors.

Lowering the prison population through early release could free up access to education, employment and training programmes for existing prisoners. These foster a safer, more controlled environment, and reduce drug misuse and violence in prisons.

Nine out of ten prisoners will eventually be released back into the community. These programmes are vital for helping them reintegrate into society, and addressing the high reoffending rate. However, the probation and housing systems on the outside are also severely overstretched, so reform is needed throughout the system, not just in prison space.

Wider reform

A temporary early release programme is a reasonable solution for the immediate capacity issues. But it won’t give the criminal justice system the wholesale reform that is much needed after years of neglect.

Four in ten sentenced prisoners are serving non-violent sentences, in which their offending is often riddled with poverty, health and inequality issues.

Reform should include more moderate and proportional sentencing by reducing sentencing length and making greater use of suspended sentences. Probation services also need improvement, to support people within their communities rather than through incarceration.

Scholars across Europe and North America have shown that progressive sentencing policies – for example, prioritising community sentences over custodial ones – enhance long-term public safety. They keep people out of prison and away from the risks associated with imprisonment.

Reducing the need for more prison facilities also lessens taxpayers’ burden. Prisons are costly and should be considered a last resort for addressing crime. Preventative measures in communities are more cost-effective and provide better support. For example, drug rehabilitation programmes cost less than half of a prison place. Bringing back youth clubs can address antisocial behaviour among teenagers, a key point in the Labour manifesto.

Evidence shows that overcrowded prisons are more dangerous than released prisoners. This new government is making a political choice to favour a more moderate and rational approach to criminal justice than past governments.

Nasrul Ismail received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) for his research on the impact of austerity on prison health governance and the delivery of healthcare services in English prisons (ESRC Grant: ES/P000630/1). The funder had no role in the analysis or preparation of this publication.