Unrecognised COVID-19 deaths in central Europe: The importance of cause-of-death certification for the COVID-19 burden assessment

by Agnieszka Fihel, Anna Janicka, Andrea Buschner, Rūta Ustinavičienė, Aurelija Trakienė

In Central Europe, the increase in mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic exceeded the number of deaths registered due to coronavirus disease. Excess deaths reported to causes other than COVID-19 may have been due to unrecognised coronavirus disease, the interruptions in care in the overwhelmed health care facilities, or socioeconomic effects of the pandemic and lockdowns. Death certificates provide exhaustive medical information, allowing us to assess the extent of unrecognised COVID-19 deaths.

Data from 187,300 death certificates with a COVID-19 mention from Austria, Bavaria (Germany), Czechia, Lithuania and Poland, 2020–2021, was used. The two step analysis uses Cause of Death Association Indicators (CDAIs) and Contributing CDAIs to identify and measure the statistical strength of associations between COVID-19 and all other medical mentions.

15,700 deaths were reported with COVID-19 only as a contributing condition (comorbidity). In three cases out of four, a typical, statistically significant coronavirus complication or pre-existing condition was registered as the underlying causes of death. In Austria, Bavaria, Czechia and Lithuania the scale of COVID-19 mortality would have been up to 18–27% higher had COVID-19 been coded as the underlying cause of death. Unrecognised coronavirus deaths were equivalent to the entire surplus of excess mortality beyond registered COVID-19 deaths in Austria and the Czech Republic, and its large proportion (25–31%) in Lithuania and Bavaria.

Death certificates with typical coronavirus complications or comorbidities as the underlying causes of death and contributing COVID-19 mentions were plausibly unrecognized coronavirus deaths.