Grammys Best Pop Vocal Album update: This has become the most competitive race of the year

This year’s lineup for Best Pop Vocal Album at the Grammys has the potential to be, dare I say, the hardest it’s ever been to predict. What used to be, perhaps, a two-horse race a few months ago has turned into a solid split between at least five artists with a chance to win, not to mention a few others still looking to grab a nomination slot.

So let’s recap the past few months. Taylor Swift’s “The Tortured Poets Department” remains huge, and as such, is a contender for the win. However, this album does feel much more vulnerable than her previous two winners, perhaps due to the relative weakness of its lead single, “Fortnight,” and the lack of any other singles. Swift’s biggest hurdle remains that she just won last year, and since this new album is her least liked by critics since “Reputation,” it’s not hard to imagine voters relegating Swift to nominations instead of wins. That said, the album has spent 11 weeks atop the Billboard 200; an album this big will always have the potential for the win.

But then there’s Ariana Grande, whom I previously presumed was the frontrunner but is now in murky water. Grande’s main appeal is that, most likely, her album will be the one with the most pop radio hits, already with two top-10s there and a third likely on the way with her single “The Boy Is Mine.” Her album is also, so far, the second most acclaimed in the category, and there might be a stronger narrative around a second Grande win here than another Swift (who has already won twice) or Billie EIlish (who is newer; more on her below) victory.

However, “Eternal Sunshine” won’t be the most commercially successful album in the category and, in all honesty, could end up being the least commercially successful in terms of equivalent album units by the time voting happens. That isn’t always an issue, as Dua Lipa’s “Future Nostalgia” won with very few weeks in the top 10, as did Grande’s own “Sweetener,” but it’s something that keeps her from being a runaway winner here.

Eilish is obviously a huge contender thanks to the success of her third album, “Hit Me Hard and Soft.” The record earned massive acclaim, the best of any contender here, and has posted great commercial numbers since release, despite being blocked from the number-one spot on the charts by Swift. Much like Grande, her album’s lead single, “Lunch,” did well but not spectacularly and has been overshadowed by the second official single, “Birds of a Feather.”

Eilish’s main deficit is that she’s usually not that prominent on pop radio, and this era might not be the exception. Plus, she usually fares better in the general field than in pop, so Eilish might not be pop voters’ number-one pick. Still, “Hit Me” is the second biggest hit here, so a win is possible for sure; it’s not like pop voters dislike Eilish, otherwise she wouldn’t get nominated so often.

There are two dark horses here who are both breakout stars. The first is Sabrina Carpenter with her upcoming album “Short n’ Sweet.” It has already achieved two huge hits: the top-three single “Espresso” and the chart-topper “Please Please Please.” This type of success is reminiscent of previous breakout smash albums like Olivia Rodrigo’s “Sour” and Eilish’s “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?,” both of which won this category.

However, Rodrigo and Eilish are seen more as serious singer-songwriters. Carpenter’s music is lighter and more playful, and while that kind of music can win here, it typically needs to come with critical acclaim, like with the aforementioned Grande and Lipa wins. There’s no guarantee that “Short n’ Sweet” will be acclaimed. Still, the success of the album already despite not being out yet, plus the fact that it might be top of mind during voting since it drops August 23, near the eligibility deadline of August 30, makes Carpenter a huge contender for the win. And voters usually don’t go for repeat winners here, so that’s an advantage she has over Swift, Grande, and Eilish.

Last but certainly not least in terms of the possibility of winning is Chappell Roan. She has taken the world by storm and is on a meteoric rise with her album “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess,” which was released on September 22, during the very first week of eligibility. It has become a sleeper hit and has reached the top five on the Billboard 200, with no signs of slowing down. By year’s end the album could be among the top five or six biggest pop albums of the year, joined by the previous four artists, so Roan is very likely looking at a nomination.

As for winning, her chances depend on a couple of factors. First, they might love to reward a debut album that has had such an organic rise. Roan’s ascension to fame might be more inspiring than the other nominees, considering her story of being dropped by her old label, and the fact that she’s a young queer talent from a small city. There’s also a lot of room for her to grow commercially, with her standalone hit “Good Luck, Babe!” becoming a late-summer smash and songs from “Midwest Princess” debuting in the Hot 100 despite being years old in some cases. On top of all of that, “Midwest Princess” might be seen as a more serious album than, potentially, “Short n’ Sweet,” touching on themes of queerness and self-acceptance.

Even with such a strong five in the lead, there’s potential for breakout Benson Boone, who has experienced success with “Fireworks and Rollerblades,” his debut album. The record has spent multiple weeks in the top 10 on the Billboard 200 and has two top-40 hits with “Beautiful Things” and “Slow It Down.” What’s holding him back is not being as big of a personality as the aforementioned five, which is typically a big factor in getting in this category. Still, Boone could be sixth in the race and get in with a tie; there were six nominees in the category as recently as 2019. While the record is unlikely to win, a nomination is very possible.

Who rounds out the contenders? Dua Lipa is a previous winner, so “Radical Optimism” shouldn’t be discounted, even if the album admittedly underperformed commercially and critically. Another previous winner is Ed Sheeran with his album “Autumn Variations,” which is not a hit-heavy record but might be sentimental enough for voters to embrace, similar to his previous nominated album “Subtract.” If the Grammys go all in on breakouts, then Tate McRae’s “Think Later” could get in, as the album produced two hits with “Exes” and “Greedy.” And Justin Timberlake has typically been nominated for his albums. This year his “Everything I Thought It Was” wasn’t necessarily a big hit, but it did produce the radio hit “Selfish.” That said, with Timberlake’s recent DWI controversy, voters might skip him this year.

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify record executives and music stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where thousands of showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?